FATA UPDATE - 17 SEPTEMBER 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003068

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018
TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER PREL PHUM MOPS PK
SUBJECT: FATA UPDATE - 17 SEPTEMBER 2008

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Military operations continue in Bajaur
Agency, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) continue to
move in and out as the situation evolves. International
organizations and NGOs are providing aid outside the Agency,
but local Pakistani government (GoP) authorities still
recommend holding off on trying to conduct relief efforts in
Bajaur until the security situation settles. GoP authorities
are beginning to conduct regular coordination meetings at the
local level; we are still working with officials in the
capital to encourage coordination and forward planning,
especially as they consider what military operations might be
necessary in the near future. On the political front, the Law
Minister told Ambassador he is looking at possible changes to
the Frontier Crimes Regulation, including perhaps diluting
the collective punishment provisions and providing for at
least limited right of appeal of Political Agents' decisions.
End Summary.

SITUATION IN BAJAUR
--------------


2. (C) Military operations continue, including aerial
bombing sorties. On Tuesday, September 9, Pakistani Army and
Frontier Corps launched ground operations, which are still
ongoing. Senior military officials have told us their
primary focus is to clear and hold main population centers
and transportation routes. Ground forces are moving from
Torghundai (along Bajaur's northeast border with Dir) through
Khar and toward Loesam and Nawagai in the south. Chief of
Army Staff General Kayani stated as of September 17, the Army
had reasserted control over the Agency's capital, Khar,
however we are not sure if this is accurate. It was also not
clear whether they had re-taken Loesam.


3. (SBU) The IDP situation remains essentially unchanged:
most of the camps in Lower Dir have been closed, though some
small facilities there and around Peshawar remain open.
Bajaur residents continue to move back and forth out of the
province as military operations allow. Bajaur Member of the
National Assembly (MNA) Shaukat Ullah told Emboffs on
September 12 that many residents remained outside the
province, some as far away as Rawalpindi and Karachi. Of the
IDPs who had returned to Bajaur, Shaukat predicted that they
would again leave the Agency within days, most likely filling
up the closed camps. (Note: We have seen some evidence of
that, with about 500 families moving out in recent days. End
Note.)


4. (SBU) Shaukat said that both IDPs and host families were
suffering, but agreed it was difficult to find a way to reach
the people inside Bajaur with humanitarian supplies. He
expected that the Pakistani Army would manage to pacify main
population centers in a few days, but that most residents
would likely return to their homes around the time of Eid
(around October 2-3). Shaukat recommended addressing
immediate relief efforts to IDPs outside of Bajaur. Once
people returned home, he expected the main needs would be
supplies for reconstructing homes and small infrastructure,
and thought basic relief items and cash for work programs
would be useful.


5. (SBU) USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives
(USAID/OTI) is prepared to deliver basic non-food items in
lower Dir and to begin reconstruction activities as soon as
political authorities give the go-ahead for entry into the
agency. Shaukat suggested OTI be prepared to set up in one
of the main towns not far from the border with Dir and
administer efforts from there. He said that local officials
knew how to reach affected populations once they returned and
he believed their systems - through the Political Agent (PA),
tehsildars and union bands -- would be generally accurate and
form a good basis for parceling out assistance.

ICRC WORKING IN BAJAUR, SWAT, AND KURRAM
--------------


6. (SBU) ICRC Deputy Head of Delegation Magne Barth called
on DCM September 12 to discuss the humanitarian response both
in Bajaur and in Swat, where military operations have been

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ongoing for several months. ICRC has been delivering aid
both in camps and to families hosting IDPs in both areas. He
said ICRC has had no trouble accessing areas in Dir (where
Bajaur IDPs initially fled),but said the fighting in Swat
had intensified so that ICRC had to move out for security
reasons. Barth said the humanitarian situation there was
serious, though less visible because IDPs have generally
remained in the Swat valley, moving around to avoid areas
where fighting was occurring rather than leaving. While not
associated directly with battling insurgents, Barth said ICRC
is increasingly concerned about the situation in Kurram
Agency, where inter-tribal fighting has been going on for
more than a year. The main road has been blocked for nine
months, and while ICRC has been able to get some supplies in
through Afghanistan, they are now looking at the
possibilities for supply by air.


7. (SBU) Barth recounted the same problems of lack of
coordination on the Pakistani side that we have been seeing.
Notwithstanding the existence of a semi-regular coordination
meeting in Peshawar, ICRC is frustrated by a lack of
communication from the Pakistani government overall,
especially on helping to plan for future needs. They are
particularly anxious to learn where the military might be
going next, so that they can prepare for the expected
dislocation of civilian populations.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
--------------


8. (SBU) One of the underlying problems in the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) is its separate
administrative status, with political parties banned, and the
1901 Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) as the law of the land.
Ambassador was told by the Law Minister that they are
planning to give President Zardari a re-write of the FCR
(possibly doing away with some of the collective punishment
elements and providing a way to appeal decisions of the
Political Agents). They are also considering issuing an
executive order to allow political parties to operate in the
FATA. (Comment: The extension of the Political Parties Act
into the FATA has been anticipated for at least several years
but has never moved forward. It is long over-due and would
give the mainstream secular parties an opportunity to compete
for support on an even par with religious-based parties whose
activities in the agencies are not restricted. End Comment.)
The Minister has another meeting scheduled on these issues
in early October.

DETERIORATING SECURITY SITUATION ACROSS FATA
--------------


9. (C) The security situation across the FATA and into NWFP
continues to be difficult. FATA Transition Initiative (FTI)
personnel report increasing accounts of Taliban present in
formerly safe areas, including around Landi Kotal in Khyber
Agency and in Jamrud Agency, close to the Khyber Gate. In
both Kurram and Mohmand, government offices are nearly empty.
The Bajaur MNA we met September 12 told us he had not been
to his Agency since last February because of fears for his
safety. He also declined to be involved in any efforts to
distribute humanitarian assistance, notwithstanding the
opportunity this would provide for him to be seen responding
to his constituents' requests for help.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Embassy has been focusing its efforts over the past
several weeks on Bajaur Agency because the combination of
Pakistani military operations and the heavy presence of
insurgents who are active in Afghanistan make this a good
opportunity to show the Pakistani government how COIN
operations can work. However, it is worth noting that heavy
fighting is occurring across several agencies (notably
Bajaur, Swat, Kurram, and increasingly in Mohmand),taxing
the Pakistani military's capacity to respond, and diminishing
the population's confidence in the government's ability to
exercise control throughout the entire country. We are
encouraged that the new Zardari government understands the
seriousness of the threat, and appears to be committed to

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addressing the problem. A decision to change the antiquated
administrative status of the FATA would be another good sign
that the GoP is looking for a long-term solution to the
problems in the FATA.

PATTERSON