PPP'S ZARDARI WINS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002941

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR
SUBJECT: PPP'S ZARDARI WINS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: A. 07 ISLAMABAD 4340

B. ISLAMABAD 2797

C. ISLAMABAD 2906

D. ISLAMABAD 2940

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Nineteen days after former President Pervez
Musharraf resigned and nine months after Benazir Bhutto's
assassination, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) candidate Asif
Zardari was elected September 6 as the new President of
Pakistan. We now expect he will be sworn in on September 9.
Despite ongoing concerns about his character and
qualifications, Zardari easily won, gathering 69 percent of
the votes in the Electoral College. He held the PPP rank and
file and his coalition partners, won the votes of traditional
PPP rival Karachi's Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM),and added
support of most of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA) parliamentarians (wooed at an election-eve dinner from
abstaining in protest of military operations in the frontier)
and defectors from Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML)
party.


2. (C) Musharraf's PML largely defected to support Zardari
rather than Nawaz Sharif's candidate in the center, but
switched to Nawaz in Punjab, where the next Zardari-Nawaz
battle is shaping up. Jubilant PPP supporters hoisted
pictures of Benazir Bhutto, as Zardari's victory was seen as
vindication for her assassination. On election eve, Zardari
drove a stake through Nawaz's judicial restoration campaign;
three deposed Supreme Court and three Peshawar High Court
judges re-took the oath of office on September 5. Election
day was marred by a Taliban attack that killed 13 people in
Peshawar, earthquake tremors felt from Peshawar to Islamabad,
and news that Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves dropped
again. President Zardari and his Prime Minister Yousuf
Gilani face daunting challenges ahead. End summary.

Landslide
- - - - -


3. (U) Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Co-Chair Asif Zardari
easily won the September 6 presidential election to succeed
former President Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan's electoral
college -- the Senate and National Assembly voting together
as the federal parliament and the Provincial Assemblies
voting separately -- consists of 702 votes; Zardari won with
482 (69 percent of the Electoral College).


4. (U) The votes of 100 senators and 342 members of the
National Assembly (MNAs) are counted fully in the electoral
college. The votes of members of the Provincial Assemblies
(MPAs) -- 371 in Punjab, 166 in Sindh, 124 in the Northwest
Frontier Province (NWFP),and 65 in Balochistan -- are
weighted such that each body receives 65 votes in the
electoral college.


5. (U) A tally follows for each of the leading presidential
candidates -- PPP's Zardari, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz's
(PML-N) Zaman Siddiqui, and Pakistan Muslim League's (PML)
Mushahid Hussain.

Federal Parliament (Senate and National Assembly): Zardari
281, Siddiqui 111, Hussain 34, voided/abstained 14; full
weighting. (Note: There are two vacant National Assembly
seats.)

Punjab Assembly: Zardari 123, Siddiqui 201, Hussain 36,
voided/abstained 11;
weighted Zardari 22, Siddiqui 35, Hussain 7, voided/abstained

1.

Sindh Assembly: Zardari 162, Siddiqui 0, Hussain 0,
voided/abstained 4;
weighted Zardari 64, Siddiqui 0, Hussain 0, voided/abstained

1.

NWFP Assembly: Zardari 107, Siddiqui 10, Hussain 3,
voided/abstained 4;
weighted Zardari 56, Siddiqui 5, Hussain 2, voided/abstained

2.

ISLAMABAD 00002941 002 OF 002



Balochistan Assembly: Zardari 59, Siddiqui 2, Hussain 2,
voided/abstained 2; no weighting necessary.

TOTAL: Zardari 482, Siddiqui 153, Hussain 45, voided 20 = 700
(Note: There are two vacant National Assembly seats.)

The Process
- - - - - -


6. (U) According to the Constitution, the candidate who wins
"the largest number of votes" is declared president, i.e., an
absolute majority of 352 votes is not/not needed. Ballots
were cast from 10am to 3pm in the national and provincial
capitals. Members could vote at any time during the period;
there was little ceremony to the process. Following the
voting, Pakistan's Election Commission (ECP) tallied the
results in the presence of the parties in the chambers.
Tallies were reported to the ECP headquarters in Islamabad,
which then summed the count, reported the results and
declared a winner. We expect Zardari to be sworn in on
September 9.


7. (C) Comment: Unlike Musharraf's controversial October 6,
2007, re-election where nearly half the electors had resigned
from or boycotted the legislatures (ref A),Pakistan's
parties fully participated in this process. Most importantly
for the next battle between Zardari and Nawaz in the Punjab,
a large number of Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League defected
to support Zardari over Nawaz's candidate in the center but
switched to Nawaz in the Punjab. The proverbial icing on the
cake was Zardari's ability to convince six deposed Supreme
Court and Peshawar High Court judges to re-take the oath of
office on election eve. This ensures Zardari will begin his
tenure having outmaneuvered Nawaz on this contentious issue.
Election day was marred by a Taliban attack that killed 13
people in Peshawar, earthquake tremors that were felt from
Peshawar to Islamabad, and news that Pakistan's foreign
exchange reserves dropped again. It is worth noting that
Prime Minister Gilani remains the de jure head of Pakistan's
parliamentary government although President Zardari is now
unquestionably the de facto power in Pakistan. End comment.


PATTERSON