Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISLAMABAD2817
2008-08-25 13:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

NAWAZ PULLS OUT OF THE COALITION

Tags:  PREL PTER PGOV PK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002817 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: NAWAZ PULLS OUT OF THE COALITION

REF: ISLAMABAD 2772

Classified By: CDA Gerry Feierstein, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002817

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: NAWAZ PULLS OUT OF THE COALITION

REF: ISLAMABAD 2772

Classified By: CDA Gerry Feierstein, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary. As expected, Pakistan Muslim League-N
(PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif announced August 25 that the
PML-N was formally withdrawing from the coalition government
because it had lost faith in its coalition partner, Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) leader Asif Zardari. In a news
conference, Nawaz Sharif announced that the PML-N will
propose Saed Zaman Siddiqi, a 71-year old former judge, as
its presidential candidate. In the short-term, Zardari still
has a slim working majority in the National Assembly without
the PML-N, but he will be more beholden to the demands of the
smaller parties. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam leader Fazlur Rehman
has already announced he might also withdraw from the
coalition if Zardari proves to be duplicitous; Fazlur's
price may be reduced military operations in the tribal areas.


2. (C) Dependence on the smaller parties will require the
PPP to ante up more than it hoped, but Zardari still appears
to have the votes to be elected President on September 6. In
the longer-term, however, Zardari will face a tough PML-N in
opposition as the PPP is forced to take responsibility for
difficult decisions to raise fuel prices and fight a growing
domestic insurgency. Despite assurances of being a
"constructive opposition," Nawaz is likely to revert to old
strategies of using his control of the Punjab Assembly to
block action in the central government. He also may play the
popular anti-military action/anti U.S. card with respect to
the fight against extremism. We note that Zardari is falsely
blaming U.S. pressure on his decision not to immediately
restore the deposed judiciary. End Summary.

Broken Promises
--------------


3. (C) In announcing the coalition breakup, Nawaz said the
PML-N had lost faith in Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader
Asif Zardari. He said the PML-N will play the role of a
constructive opposition and not create hurdles for the PPP.
He nominated 71-year-old former judge Saed Zaman Siddiqi as
PML-N's candidate for the presidency (see reftel for bio
notes). Nawaz also showed the press a copy of a signed
agreement in which Zardari had promised reinstatement of the

judges within 24 hours; this was further evidence of
Zardari's broken promises, argued Nawaz. Nawaz noted that he
had consulted all coalition partners before announcing his
decision. (Note: this was in comparison to Zardari's
decision to accept the PPP nomination for President without
consulting his coalition partners.)


4. (C) This confirmed what PML-N Information Secretary
Ahsan Iqbal told Polcouns earlier on August 25. Iqbal
predicted that PML-N would withdraw from the coalition out of
frustration but said that Nawaz had instructed him to take
the high road and not overly criticize the PPP. "We do not
want to return to the bad days of the 1980's and 1990's" when
the two parties were bitter rivals, said Iqbal. But the
party would act as a robust opposition, and he expected
significant defections from Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim
League to bolster PML-N numbers in the National Assembly.


5. (C) According to Iqbal, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif has
shown incredible patience with Zardari, but Zardari has now
ignored "yet another agreement and missed another deadline"
for reinstatement of the judiciary. Nawaz felt he had an
agreement with a partner but now realizes that he has been
deceived, said Iqbal. The PML-N planned to make public a
signed document in which Zardari agreed to conditions for
continued partnership with the PML-N. These included an
agreement to reinstate the judges. It also said that, if by
the time of the presidential election the powers of the
President had not been transferred to the Prime Minister, the
coalition would nominate a non-partisan candidate to replace
Musharraf. Zardari told the press August 23 that political
agreements were not "holy" like the Koran and therefore could
be renegotiated.


6. (C) Iqbal said that Zardari was claiming that the U.S.
was "pressurizing" him not to restore the deposed judiciary.
(Note: We have heard from multiple sources in the PPP, the

ISLAMABAD 00002817 002 OF 002


lawyers' movement and the Army that Zardari is falsely
claiming that the U.S. is forcing him to delay/oppose
restoration of the judiciary.) Polcouns responded that the
U.S. considered the judges' issue an internal matter for the
GOP to resolve. PML-N, said Iqbal, compromised its position
and agreed to reinstatement of the judges through a
parliamentary action rather than an executive order, but this
could be accomplished in a day. Instead, said Iqbal, the PPP
named yet another committee to slow down consideration of the
issue. The PPP delegation that visited Nawaz Sharif's home
in Lahore August 24 had nothing new to offer on the judges'
issue. (Note: The National Assembly and the Senate were in
session August 25 and were both scheduled to debate the
judges issue; however, lacking a text, National Assembly
Speaker Mirza told Polcouns that she did not expect anything
beyond general debate on the issue.)


7. (C) Iqbal confirmed that it would be "next to
impossible" to remain in an alliance with the PPP in the
Punjab. He expected that PML-N would break with the PPP and
work with a forward block of Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim
League to run Pakistan's most important province. After the
PML-N pullout, PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar confirmed that
the PPP was pulling out of the ruling government in the
Punjab.

Presidential Race
--------------


8. (C) The PPP announcement late August 23 that Zardari
would accept his party's nomination to become president was
another example of an action that was not coordinated with
his coalition partners. Meanwhile, over the weekend, the
Awami National Party (ANP) announced it would support
Zardari's bid for the presidency. ANP leader Asfundyar Wali
Khan called PML-N's withdrawal from the coalition "bad for
Pakistani democracy." On August 23, coalition partner Jamiat
Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) announced it would hold a party meeting
to consider its stance; on August 25, JUI-F leader Fazlur
Rehman announced he might quit the coalition if it turned out
that Zardari had been duplicitous. Musharraf's Pakistan
Muslim League party expects to nominate its General
Secretary, Mushahid Hussain for the presidency.


9. (C) Post's calculations continue to show that Zardari
will be elected President on September 6 because he has the
support of three of the four provincial assemblies and a bare
majority in the National Assembly. JUI-F (which has a
combined 19 votes in the National Assembly and the Senate)
now hold the cards to Zardari's election as President, so
JUI-F's vote will cost Zardari dearly.


10. (C) Comment: No one in Pakistan expected this
center-left/center-right coalition to remain together for
long after it achieved its only joint goal of ousting
Musharraf. But Nawaz has succeeded in exiting as the noble,
principled leader in contrast to the duplicitous Zardari. In
the short-term, the additional support of the Muttahida Quami
Movement (MQM) plus some of the parliamentary independents
gives Zardari a slim working majority without Nawaz. He will
have to pay more now for JUI-F's votes but is still likely to
be elected President. But in the longer-term, Zardari will
suffer as Nawaz in opposition will be a tough opponent. The
PPP will be forced to take responsibility for difficult
economic decisions to raise fuel prices and cope with an
expanding militant insurgency. PML-N will likely play the
popular anti-military action/anti-U.S. card in the coming
days, opening for U.S. interests an unhelpful divide that the
militants may seek to exploit. We expect PML-N to repeat its
previous 1990's strategy of using control of the Punjab to
block central government initiatives. This could pose
additional challenges for effective governance in the coming
months.

FEIERSTEIN