SEPTEMBER 6 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: A PRIMER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002797

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR KJUS
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 6 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: A PRIMER

REF: 07 ISLAMABAD 4064


1. (SBU) Summary: A 30-day clock to elect a new president
commenced August 18 when President Pervez Musharraf resigned
from office. He had served less than a year into his second
term, after a controversial and contested re-election on
October 6, 2007. Pakistan's president is elected indirectly
by an electoral college of the Senate, National Assembly, and
four Provincial Assemblies; the election has been set for
September 6. The nomination, scrutiny, and election schedule
will allow the coalition parties time to negotiate a possible
candidacy by Pakistan People's Party Co-Chair Asif Zardari,
as well as other issues, such as restoration of the deposed
judges. End summary.

Step One
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2. (U) When will the presidential election occur? Pakistan's
Election Commission (ECP) has set September 6 for the
election to replace former President Pervez Musharraf. The
ECP also announced that nomination papers can be submitted
starting August 26 and that any withdrawals must occur by
August 30. The ECP will scrutinize nomination papers, i.e.,
judge candidates' eligibility, on August 28.


3. (SBU) This schedule gives the coalition government --
Pakistan People's Party (PPP),Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N),Awami National Party (ANP),and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
(JUI-F) -- two weeks to settle on its candidate. PPP's
Co-Chair Asif Zardari has announced his interest, and the
setting of an election date indicates his confidence that he
can win the presidency, even without the PML-N's support.
Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) might also nominate
a candidate.


4. (U) Who can nominate presidential candidates? Any member
of the Senate, National Assembly, or the four Provincial
Assemblies can nominate candidates for president. The
nomination must be seconded by another member and consented
to, in writing, by the candidate. The Chief Election
Commissioner oversees the presidential election process.

Qualified/Disqualified
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5. (U) Who can qualify as a presidential candidate and who
decides if a candidate is qualified? Presidential candidates
must be Muslims of at least 45 years of age and meet the
qualifications to become a member of the National Assembly.
The Chief Election Commissioner makes the final qualification
decision during a day of "scrutiny," set for August 28. The
Supreme Court, though, ultimately has the power to overrule
the Commissioner's decisions.


6. (SBU) Pakistan's Constitution outlines numerous
qualifications under Article 62 that a candidate must meet;
it lists even more reasons for disqualification under Article

63. Both articles, for instance, mention that a candidate
convicted of a crime of moral turpitude is ineligible for
office. Because, in Pakistan's history, military and
civilian administrations have arrested, charged, and
sometimes convicted their political rivals for corruption (a
crime of moral turpitude),many potential presidential
candidacies, including PPP's Zardari or PML-N's Nawaz Sharif,
could be challenged in court. (Note: Challenges to
Musharraf's candidacy in 2007 were based on other legal
issues related primarily to his serving concurrently as
President and Chief of Army Staff.)

A New President
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7. (U) What if only one candidate is nominated or qualifies?
Is there still an election? If the Chief Election
Commissioner determines during his scrutiny that there is
only one eligible candidate, he immediately declares that
candidate as president. If there is more than one eligible
candidate after the deadline for candidates' withdrawals has
passed, the Chief Election Commissioner proceeds to hold the

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election.


8. (U) Who votes for president? Members of the Senate (100),
National Assembly (342),and the Provincial Assemblies of
Punjab (371),Sindh (168),Northwest Frontier Province (124),
and Balochistan (65). The separate tallies from the four
Provincial Assemblies are weighted such that each receives 65
votes in the electoral college. When added to the Senate's
and National Assembly's votes, the electoral college numbers

702.


9. (U) What will happen on election day? The Senate,
National Assembly, and four Provincial Assemblies,
separately, each hold secret ballots. After the poll,
ballots are returned to the Chief Election Commissioner, who
counts the votes and declares the winner. The candidate with
a simple majority (first past the post) wins. There is no
constitutional provision for delaying presidential elections
due to resignations by parliamentarians or abstentions by
political parties.


10. (U) Can the results of a presidential election be
challenged? Article 41(6) of the Constitution states: "The
validity of the election of the president shall not be called
in question by or before any court of other authority."

PATTERSON