Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISLAMABAD2772
2008-08-21 03:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

POTENTIAL PAKISTANI PRESIDENTS

Tags:  PREL PTER PGOV PK PINR 
pdf how-to read a cable
O 210348Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8412
INFO AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 002772 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK PINR
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL PAKISTANI PRESIDENTS

REF: ISLAMABAD 2710

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 002772


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK PINR
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL PAKISTANI PRESIDENTS

REF: ISLAMABAD 2710

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Following Musharraf's resignation August 18,
Pakistan's political party leaders began immediate debates
over who would become the next president; they have now taken
a 72 hour break. On August 20, the Muttahida Quami Movement
(MQM) made a surprise announcement that it would support Asif
Zardari for president. This alone would not clinch Zardari's
candidacy, but it does move him one step closer to being able
to govern without Nawaz Sharif should the coalition break
apart. This cable outlines the top potential nominees for
president. End Summary.


2. (C) With the August 18 resignation of Pervez Musharraf,
speculation is rampant about who will replace him as
president. Under Pakistan's constitution, a new president
must be indirectly elected within 30 days by an electoral
college comprised of the Senate, National Assembly and the
four provincial assemblies (see septel for process details).
Both the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) met late August 18 to begin
deliberations. The two parties have now taken a 72 hour
break amid reports of significant acrimony during talks that,
again, centered on restoration of the deposed judiciary.
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) rank and file met August 20 with
Musharraf; they may put their own candidate forward.


3. (C) PPP leader Asif Zardari has made it clear to us that
he wants to be president, but PML-N has made it equally clear
they will not accept him. Given Zardari's history of
corruption, we believe the Army may have some concerns about
a Zardari candidacy as well. The surprise announcement
August 20 that MQM will support, even nominate, Zardari will
help but certainly not clinch his chances. If Zardari does
not succeed, he will still push for a PPP candidate. We do
not believe that PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif wants to be
president (in the hope he can again be Prime Minister). In
an effort to outmaneuver Zardari, PML-N is pushing for
someone who is a politically neutral "elder statesman" and/or
someone from the "lesser" provinces of Sindh or Balochistan.


Presidential Powers
--------------



4. (C) Under constitutional reforms adopted by Musharraf, the
President has significant powers to dissolve the National
Assembly and appoint provincial governors and military
service chiefs. The President, acting through the governor
of the Northwest Frontier Province, also controls the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The PPP-led coalition
government has drafted a constitutional reform package that
would shift the President's powers to dissolve the Assembly
and appoint governors and military services chiefs back to
the Prime Minister. That package, which would require
two-thirds approval in both the National Assembly and the
Senate, has not yet been introduced in the parliament.


5. (C) In 2004, Musharraf created a 13-member National
Security Council, coordinated by a National Security Advisor
he appointed (Tariq Aziz just resigned from the position).
The PPP and the PML-N have long been critical of the National
Security Council, which they view as another tool to enhance
presidential power at the expense of parliament and the Prime
Minister. After the 2008 election, Zardari created a new
position, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister
(now held by Mahmood Durrani) as a counter to the National
Security Council. It is not clear if the PPP will dissolve
the National Security Council, appoint their own National
Security Advisor to the new President, or merge the two
positions.


6. (C) In a change Musharraf pushed through during the
November 2007 state of emergency, the President also leads
the National Command Authority, a civilian-military body that
controls Pakistan's nuclear weapons. The President also
appoints the Attorney General; Musharraf appointed Malik
Qayyum, who resigned on August 18. PPP Senator Latif Khosa is
widely believed to be the Attorney General-designate.

Potential Candidates
--------------


7. (C) In addition to Zardari, the following individuals (in
no particular order) are considered serious contenders to
become the next President of Pakistan:

--General (ret) Jehangir Karamat. Karamat would likely be
well-received by the Pakistani military. He was Pakistan's
Ambassador to the U.S. from 2004 to 2006. Prior to that
appointment, he served as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) from
December 1995 to October 1998, when he was forced by Nawaz
Sharif to resign. His stints at Stanford University and
Brookings Institution after retirement highlight his interest
in research and academics. He is approximately 68 years of
age.

--Sardar Attaullah Mengal. Aged 78, Mengal is a long shot
for the job but one who would give often-neglected
Balochistan a boost and perhaps could help quell a simmering
secessionist movement there. He is the chief of the powerful
Mengal tribe who served as the Chief Minister of Balochistan
in from 1972 to 1973. He has spent eight years intermittently
in jail and has not played an active role in politics since
his release from jail in 1977. He went abroad from
1977-1992.

--Dr. Fehmida Mirza. Appointment of a woman would fit well
with the PPP's image and make Pakistan the first Muslim
nation to elect a female head of state. Religious leaders
likely would oppose this appointment as the head of state
traditionally also is responsible for leading the nation in
Muslim prayers. Mirza, 52, is serving as the first female
Speaker of the National Assembly of Pakistan. Currently in
her third term, the long-time PPP loyalist first won election
in 1997. Mirza earned a degree in medicine in 1982. Her
husband, Dr. Zulfiqar Ali Mirza, maintains close (some say
financially beneficial) ties to Zardari.

--Faryal Talpur. Asif Zardari's sister, she was elected in
the June by-elections to fill Benazir's Sindh seat in the
National Assembly. Mrs. Talpur previously served as district
Nazim (mayor) of her native Nawabshah.

--Asfundyar Wali Khan. Perhaps the most interesting choice,
Wali Khan would be a compromise candidate from the coalition
as he represents neither the PPP nor the PML-N. Wali Khan,
aged 59, leads the Awami National Party (ANP),a Pashtun
nationalist party. The ANP is part of the ruling coalition at
the national level and leads the Northwest Frontier
Province's provincial government along with the PPP. A
secular political party, ANP defeated the religious parties
in the 2008 election. It lost the election in 2002 based, in
part, on Wali Khan's refusal to condemn American intervention
in Afghanistan.

--Aftab Shaaban Mirani. A PPP loyalist and close friend of
Zardari's, Mirani served as Benazir Bhutto's Minister of
Defense in her second term and as Sindh Chief Minister in her
first term. He was widely expected to be named PPP Minister
of Defense in 2008 and could still replace current MOD Ahmed
Mukhtar (who currently holds both the Defense and Commerce
portfolios).

--Fakhruddin G. Ibrahim. PML-N is supporting his candidacy,
probably to heighten attention to the PML-N theme of
supporting an independent judiciary. Ibrahim has played a
number of legal, judicial, and political roles throughout his
career. Currently 80 years old, he served as the Federal Law
Minister in a caretaker government in 1996, the governor of
Sindh, a Supreme Court judge and an Attorney General. When
former President General Zia al-Haq came to power, Ibrahim
refused to take a new oath under a provisional constitution
order and resigned.

--Saed Zaman Siddiqi. PML-N is supporting his candidacy,
probably for the same reasons they support Ibrahim. A
well-known and respected lawyer and jurist, Siddiqi is 71
years old. As Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, he opted
to step down in 1999 rather than take a new oath under
Musharraf. Siddiqi first served as a jurist in the Sindh
High Court in 1980 before becoming the Sindh Chief Justice in

1990. He received his appointment to the Supreme Court in

1992.


8. (C) Comment: Zardari has been wooing MQM leader Altaf
Hussain for months in the hopes of obtaining MQM support in
the National Assembly and strengthening his hand with Nawaz.
MQM's declaration of support would put Zardari one step
closer to being able to govern without Nawaz Sharif should
PML-N quit the coalition. With MQM, the Awami National Party
and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Zardari will have 171 of 342 seats;
to obtain a majority, he would need support from either
tribal area independents (12) or Musharraf's party (54).
Behind the scenes, the PPP is in negotiations with both
groups. End comment.


PATTERSON