NAWAZ GOVERNMENT: NOT YET READY FOR PRIME TIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 002611


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: NAWAZ GOVERNMENT: NOT YET READY FOR PRIME TIME

Classified By: Charge Peter Bodde, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)



1. (C) Summary. Although Nawaz Sharif would like to exploit
his status as Pakistan's most popular politician, he does not
now have the votes to bring down the government and force new
elections. If Nawaz quits the current coalition, PM Gilani
could continue to lead a minority government with the
backroom support of Musharraf's party and the Muttahida Quami
Movement. Wild cards that could alter this political
calculus include food/fuel riots, a mass wave of suicide
bombings or an unlikely split in the Pakistan People's Party.
If the government does fall, they will have up to 90 days to
schedule new elections, and it is not clear Nawaz even then
can rule without Zardari's support. The August 5 "showdown"
meeting between Nawaz and Asif Zardari may produce only
agreement to expand the cabinet and allow a strained
coalition to limp along through the September Ramadan break.
End Summary.


2. (C) With an 83 percent approval rating, Nawaz Sharif may
be the most popular politician in Pakistan today, but he
faces several significant hurdles before he can possibly
control the next government. Nawaz's soaring popularity is
based on his relentless campaign to restore all the deposed
judiciary and oust President Musharraf. In public, he and
his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party have taken
maximalist positions and increasingly have criticized their
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) coalition partner. In private,
Nawaz's views are more nuanced, and most PML-N members insist
they want the coalition to remain intact in the near term.


3. (C) Zardari and Nawaz will meet August 5 for what is
being billed as a "showdown." When Nawaz returned from
London on July 29, he told the press "It is time for decisive
talks with Zardari." Nawaz is under pressure to force a
Zardari decision on the judiciary and Musharraf's possible
impeachment; Zardari is under pressure to replace the PML-N
ministers who withdrew from the cabinet on May 12 so that the
government can begin to function normally. Few in Pakistan
expect the uneasy PPP/PML-N coalition to survive in the long
term, but Nawaz Sharif may not be ready to walk out just yet,
and it is not in Zardari's interest to push him.

Minority Government
--------------


4. (C) If Nawaz did withdraw from the coalition, the PPP
(with 126 of 342 National Assembly seats) could continue
ruling in a minority government. This would be unprecedented
in Pakistan's history, but there are no constitutional
requirements for a government to obtain more than an initial
parliamentary vote of confidence. Zardari would need new
partners to maintain even a slim majority--his choices, both
unpalatable to PPP rank and file, are Musharraf's Pakistan
Muslim League (PML) party (54 seats) and the Muttahida Quami
Movement (MQM) party that rules Karachi (25 seats). Backroom
overtures by the PPP to both these potential partners already
are underway. PML President Chaudhry Shujaat told Ambassador
that the PML would not formally join a PPP government but
would support it in parliament. MQM leaders confirm they are
negotiating with the PPP for possible ministerial positions;
MQM and the PPP already share power in the Sindh government.


5. (C) As for other current coalition partners/supporters,
we expect the Awami National Party (13 seats) and the
independents who represent the tribal areas (11 seats) to
stick with the PPP. Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
party (7 seats) is unhappy with the PPP's decision to use
military action against militants and will (as always)
negotiate its future position.


6. (C) The wild card here is unity within the PPP itself.
Zardari is widely disliked within the party; his exclusive
leadership style, his disrespectful treatment of PPP Vice
Chair Amin Fahim, and his decision to favor his cronies over
old-time Benazir supporters have alienated many. Musharraf's
party is actively working with Fahim to exploit these
fissures and, sensing its potential power as a deal maker, is
increasing its criticism of the PPP. However, we seriously
doubt efforts to split the party will succeed while the PPP
leads the government. Zardari will use an upcoming cabinet
expansion to distribute more spoils and try to calm internal
dissent.

The No-Confidence Electoral Math

--------------


7. (C) Under Pakistan's constitution, the President can
dissolve the National Assembly (under article 58.2(b)) and
force new elections. Because Musharraf knows this would
likely bring Nawaz to power, he is unlikely to take this
action. The Prime Minister can call for a vote of
confidence; with the support of 20 percent of the National
Assembly, any member also can call for a vote of no
confidence. Passage of a no confidence motion requires only
a simple majority (172 of 342 votes) in the National
Assembly.


8. (C) With 26 percent of the National Assembly (91 seats),
Nawaz can file a no-confidence motion, but he does not now
have the additional 81 votes needed to bring down the
government. At the moment, the PML, MQM and ANP would oppose
a no confidence motion that leads to elections which Nawaz
would win.


9. (C) A split in PPP ranks and/or serious disintegration
of law and order could alter political calculations and
convince coalition supporters to break ranks and bring down
the government. We already are seeing energy demonstrations
and the situation will worsen in the coming months; food
inflation and shortages also are growing. A spreading
militant insurgency is creeping out of the tribal areas into
"settled" regions of the country, and a GOP military campaign
against militants could spark renewed suicide bombings across
Pakistan. Should Nawaz withdraw from the coalition, he would
exploit popular fears about food and energy shortages and
declining security.

After New Elections
--------------


10. (U) When a Prime Minister loses a vote of confidence,
the President can either ask another National Assembly member
to form a government, or dissolve the Assembly, after which a
general election must be held within 90 days.


11. (C) According to the latest International Republican
Institute (IRI) poll, if an election were held today, Nawaz's
PML-N party would win 36 percent of the vote compared to 32
percent for Zardari's PPP. We expect PML-N support to grow
if Nawaz moves into opposition, but it remains far from
certain that he could rule without PPP support in a new
government. Nawaz himself is still disqualified from
becoming Prime Minister on two grounds. Still pending is an
appeal on his disqualification to run for a seat in the
National Assembly (a requirement to become PM),and he has
yet to overcome the constitutional two-term limit on prime
ministers. If PML-N wins the opportunity to lead the next
government, therefore, Nawaz would have to lead through a
proxy, at least initially.


12. (C) Comment: Despite growing public frustration at the
coalition's inability to resolve the judges' issue, tackle
the economic crisis or stem growing militancy, we believe the
GOP will continue to muddle through August and September
(Ramadan). Nawaz likely will use this time to increase
criticism of the PPP at the national level and strengthen his
position in the Punjab Provincial Assembly ahead of a
challenge to the government by the end of the year.


BODDE