COALITION SECURITY MEETING: FOCUS ON NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002515

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PTER
SUBJECT: COALITION SECURITY MEETING: FOCUS ON NEGOTIATIONS

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Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: PM Gilani chaired a seven hour meeting of
coalition partners on July 23 to discuss the security
situation. It produced a predictable statement affirming the
GOP's three-pronged strategy of political engagement,
economic development and force when needed. The public
accent was on negotiations and building popular consensus
through parliamentary debate for what the government is now
terming a fight against "insurgents" and "anti-state"
elements. NSA Durrani told Ambassador this was a deliberate
strategy to shift the public relations campaign away from the
unpopular "GWOT" theme. Disappointingly, there appeared to
be no agreement reached on the need for more vigorous
military action against extremists. Minister of Interior
Malik felt the meeting accomplished little. PM Gilani did
succeed in ensuring that coalition partners can no longer
claim they were not consulted on GOP security policy. End
Summary.

Coalition Partners Meet
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2. (U) Members of Pakistan's ruling coalition met July 23 for
what PM Gilani termed a "one point agenda" -- to debate the
GOP policy on combating terrorism. Attending the meeting
were PM Gilani, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Chair Asif
Zardari, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) representative
Shahbaz Sharif (Nawaz Sharif declined to attend, citing his
need to remain in London where his wife is recuperating from
surgery),Awami National Party (ANP) leader Asfundyar Wali
Khan, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader Fazlur Rehman, NSA
to the PM Mahmoud Durrani, Interior Minister Rehman Malik,
Information Minister Sherry Rehman, Northwest Frontier
Province (NWFP) Governor Ghani, NWFP Chief Minister Hoti and
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) parliamentary
leader Munir Orakzai. The press reported that Chief of Army
Staff General Kayani and Inter-Services Intelligence (nfi)
attended the meeting, which lasted for seven hours.


3. (U) Following the meeting, the GOP issued a statement
saying there had been "a clear consensus" of the group.
Pakistan's national security and internal stability "is
paramount, and no one will be allowed to challenge the writ
of the state." The main thrust of the coalition's policy to
counter extremism will be "political engagement." The
statement noted that "Pakistan's territory will not be used
for terrorist attacks, nor will attacks from external forces
on Pakistan's sovereign soil be tolerated." The group called
for debate in parliament to mobilize pubic support to build a
greater national consensus on Pakistan's battle against
extremism and militancy. They also stressed the need for
greater cooperation between national and provincial
governments and improved civilian law enforcement. To make
residents of this area into "stakeholders," the group called
for increased investments in education, employment,
development and infrastructure.


4. (C) Interior Minister Malik told Ambassador July 23 that
the meeting had accomplished little. NSA Durrani gave the
meeting a more positive spin in talks with Ambassador July

24. He said that the meeting began with briefings by the
Director General of Military Operations MG Pasha and was
followed by a two hour plus security briefing by the NWFP
Home Secretary. During the debate that followed, Wali Khan
was forceful in saying that Pakistan could not permit cross
border operations into Pakistan. Fazlur Rehman blamed the
U.S. for all the "evil" in the region and suggested that
there would be no problems with extremism if U.S. forces left
Afghanistan. Shahbaz Sharif was relatively quiet, said
Durrani, but "surprisingly firm" against terrorism. Durrani
said the PM deliberately did not use the word "terrorism," as
the new strategy is to portray this battle as a fight by
Pakistan against "insurgents" and "anti-state" elements.
This would sell better with the Pakistan public than the
"GWOT" theme, argued Durrani.


5. (C) After the meeting, Wali Khan told the press the
serious issues for the ANP were peace, and militant
sanctuaries in tribal areas. "As long as the sanctuaries
remain, peace will be difficult to return," said ANP
provincial leader Khattak. Fazlur Rehman told the press that
negotiations, not force, should be used to solve the security

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problem in the tribal areas.


6. (C) Comment: PLM-N and JUI-F had been complaining that
they had not been consulted on the government's policy; this
meeting should end that complaint. ANP provincial leaders
have been out of synch with the national government on both
policy statements and operations; the group at least
acknowledged there should be better national-provincial
cooperation. Parliamentary debates on the security
situation are long overdue. The decision to move the PR
focus from the global war on terror to Pakistan's battle with
insurgents and anti-state elements is one that could increase
popular support for efforts to combat extremism. Without an
agreement on the use of force, however, it remains difficult
to see how the GOP is going to make real progress in curbing
militancy.

PATTERSON