NEW IRI POLL: MUSHARRAF DOWN, NAWAZ UP, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 002415

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR PTER
SUBJECT: NEW IRI POLL: MUSHARRAF DOWN, NAWAZ UP, AND
ZARDARI'S GOP TREADING WATER

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The results of the latest International
Republican Institute (IRI) poll quantified clear political
trends in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif's popularity grew to 83
percent because there is solid support across party lines for
key components of his campaign -- President Pervez
Musharraf's ouster and reinstatement of the deposed
judiciary. Based on that platform, Nawaz's Pakistan Muslim
League-N (PML-N) party gained on the Pakistan People's Party
(PPP); if elections were held today, the poll showed the
PML-N winning 36 percent of the vote versus 32 percent for
the PPP. Despite the switch in party dominance, this means
neither party has enough support yet to rule alone; 58
percent wanted the coalition to stay together. Musharraf's
popularity dropped to 9 percent, with much of his previous
support shifting to Nawaz. With rising food and fuel prices,
93 percent listed economic concerns as the nation's number
one priority. The poll, taken June 1-15, revealed hope that
the new PPP-led government could deliver relief; Prime
Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani received a 64 percent
favorability rating.


2. (C) Trends in support for the war on terror appeared to
reflect the decline in suicide bombings in the settled areas
since the February 18 elections. There was a drop in those
who believed religious extremism, al Qaeda and the Taliban
were serious problems. Most supported Gilani's three-pronged
anti-terrorism strategy of negotiations, force if needed, and
development, but 71 percent favored political dialogue with
extremists and 65 percent supported peace deals. Support for
cooperating with the U.S. in the war on terror was up
slightly, but al Qaeda received an 18 percent favorability
rating, the Taliban rated 23 percent, and only 5 percent had
a favorable opinion of the U.S. End Summary.

Baseline
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3. (C) IRI conducted June 1-15 its eighth poll in two years,
interviewing in-person over 3,000 Pakistanis nationwide.
IRI's Regional Program Director Tom Garrett and Country
Program Director Rob Varsalone briefed the Ambassador July 14
on the poll's results. Varsalone reported that select
portions of the poll would be released to the Washington Post
on July 16, and the PPP and PML-N would be briefed the same
day. IRI's last such poll was taken in January, before the
PPP took over government, and it intends to conduct the next
poll in the Fall with the financial support of the National
Endowment for Democracy (NED) and State's Democracy, Human
Rights and Labor (DRL) Bureau.

Hopes and Fears
- - - - - - - -


4. (C) The poll reflected mixed feelings about the future: 86
percent said the country was moving in the wrong direction
and 46 percent said they expected a worse economic future.
However, when asked if they felt things would get better now
that there was a new government, 52 percent replied "yes."
The new government and the parliament are now the most
popular institutions with favorable ratings of 85 percent and
81 percent, respectively. Leaders in the new government are
also popular, most notably Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani,
who drew a 64 percent favorability score.


5. (SBU) Economic issues topped Pakistanis' list of concerns:
71 percent identified inflation as the issue of most concern,
followed by unemployment (13 percent) and poverty (5
percent). Other issues such as corruption, law and order,
democratic reforms, and even suicide bombings barely
registered. Reflecting a decline in suicide bombings in the
settled areas, the percentage of people who felt more secure
rose 20 points to 32 percent.

Musharraf, Judges, and Nawaz
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6. (C) The poll demonstrated why PML-N's Nawaz Sharif is
successfully pressing his campaign to impeach President
Pervez Musharraf and restore the deposed judiciary.
Musharraf's support level dropped to 9 percent, and his job

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approval fell to 11 percent, down from January's 15 percent.
Support for his ouster grew to 85 percent from 75 percent;
surprisingly, 30 percent of Musharraf's own Pakistan Muslim
League (PML) agree with this sentiment. Eighty-three percent
said they wanted the deposed court reinstated. In addition,
when asked how important this issue was to them, 86 percent
described it as "important," with 69 percent saying that it
was "very important."


7. (SBU) Nawaz has been the main beneficiary of the decline
of Musharraf's PML party. With an 82 percent favorability
rating, Nawaz is far and away the most dominant political
personality in Pakistan today. Likewise, Nawaz easily
dominates the "best leader for Pakistan" category, the choice
of 38 percent. The poll indicates that PML-N gained an edge
on PPP precisely because of its support for restoration of
the deposed court (and against Musharraf); 80 percent overall
and 82 percent of PPP voters had a higher opinion of the
PML-N because of this stated position.


8. (SBU) More importantly, when asked who they would support
in future parliamentary elections, PML-N was the choice of 36
percent; in particular, support for the PML-N grew in the
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). PPP came in second
overall with 32 percent, and PML barely registered at four
percent. The majority of Pakistanis (58 percent) said they
wanted the PPP/PML-N coalition to stay together, but given
other choices, 36 percent preferred a PML-N "religious
coalition" to 31 percent for a PPP "secular coalition." With
29 percent "undecided," IRI noted similarities between
today's developing political scene and Pakistan politics of
the 1990s.

The War on Terror
--------------


9. (C) IRI does not plan to release to the media most of its
findings regarding Pakistanis' attitudes on the war on
terrorism. Responses were mixed on the terrorism front, and
the number of undecided respondents, particularly Punjabi
women, increased. On one hand, 81 percent overall supported
PM Gilani's three-pronged strategy of dialogue, force when
needed, and development; this may reflect support for the
messenger more than the message. Those supporting
cooperation with the U.S. rose from nine to 15 percent, while
those opposing cooperation declined from 89 to 71 percent.
Educated, wealthy, urban, secular respondents who live
farther away from the tribal areas were less inclined to
support the war on terror; less educated, poor, rural and
religious respondents who live closer to the tribal areas
were more inclined to support it.


10. (C) While 61 percent said they felt religious extremism
was a "serious problem" in the country (down 12 percent from
January),only 45 percent said al Qaeda and the Taliban were
"serious problems" (also each down about 20 points).
Moreover, Pakistanis are rejecting military options to combat
extremism: 71 percent supported political dialogue with
extremists and 65 percent support the reported peace deals.
When respondents were asked their opinion of various groups,
Al Qaeda received an 18 percent favorability rating, and the
Taliban rated 23 percent. Overall, 88 percent had a negative
opinion of the U.S.; only 5 percent had a favorable opinion.

Elections and the Army
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11. (SBU) Pakistanis consider February's parliamentary
elections to have been mostly "fair;" only 21 percent said
that they felt the elections had been rigged.


12. (SBU) The Army's positive image, previously in the 80th
percentile, now hovers around 60 percent, still high. Chief
of Army Staff (COAS) Ashfaq Kayani is also well liked at 37
percent up from 25 percent.


BODDE