Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08IRANRPODUBAI4
2008-01-23 14:40:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

MP SAYS IRANIAN REFORMERS SURPRISED AT SCALE OF

Tags:  IR PGOV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9040
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0004/01 0231440
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 231440Z JAN 08
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0217
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0191
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0159
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0210
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000004 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD,
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM,
PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/23/2018
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: MP SAYS IRANIAN REFORMERS SURPRISED AT SCALE OF
DISQUALIFICATIONS

RPO DUBAI 00000004 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Acting Director, Iran Regional
Presence Office, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000004

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD,
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM,
PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/23/2018
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: MP SAYS IRANIAN REFORMERS SURPRISED AT SCALE OF
DISQUALIFICATIONS

RPO DUBAI 00000004 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Acting Director, Iran Regional
Presence Office, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(S//NF) Summary: A reformist Iranian Majles deputy (MP) told
IRPO that reformers were surprised at the scale of recent
initial disqualifications of parliamentary candidates by
electoral supervisory commissions. The MP claimed that
reformist candidates would not contest their disqualifications
and would instead opt to boycott the elections. He predicted
fewer than 30% overall voter participation. The MP himself
learned recently that he had been disqualified despite having
already served two terms in the Majles, and was visibly shaken
by the news. He asserted that there was no longer any hope of
free and fair elections, and although Supreme Leader Khamenei
might intervene to allow a paltry few reformers to participate
for the sake of appearances, none of the reformist candidates
would go along with this transparent ploy. End summary.

REFORMERS FACE MASSIVE INITIAL DISQUALIFICATIONS

-------------- --------------

2.(S//NF) IRPOffs met January 22 with an Iranian reformist
Majles deputy (MP) who had learned very recently that he had
been disqualified from running for re-election in the upcoming
Majles elections March 14, and was still visibly shaken by the
news. Despite his two-term incumbency, the MP said he had been
disqualified along with a majority of other reformist
candidates. Reform groups expected some disqualifications of
their candidates, as in previous elections, but the MP asserted
they were nonetheless surprised by the wide scale.

3.(U) According to press reports, members of two of the largest
reformist groups, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF)
and the Mojahideen of the Islamic Revolution Organization (MIRO)
were disqualified along with several reformist incumbents.
Several members of the reformist National Trust Party were also
reportedly disqualified.

WILL REFORMERS BOYCOTT THE ELECTIONS?

--------------

4.(S//NF) The MP claimed that reformist candidates would not

protest their disqualifications and would now boycott the
elections. He predicted that fewer than 30% of eligible voters
would turn up at the polls. However, a spokesman for the
reformist coalition told domestic news Jan 22 that the coalition
is still considering whether to boycott the elections.

NO CHANCE NOW OF FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS, MP SAYS

-------------- --------------

5.(S//NF) The MP asserted that there was no longer any hope of
free and fair elections, claiming that the ruling conservatives
were employing a five stage strategy to prevent reformers from
re-taking the Majles:

--disqualifications

--disrupt reformist campaign events

--send out "night letters" on eve of vote, smearing reformers

--ballot stuffing and other voter fraud on election day

--no confidence votes

The MP asserted that Majles speaker Haddad-Adel had no chance of
winning his constituency in Tehran, claiming if he won, it would
be a sign that the elections had been completely rigged. The MP
suggeQ that Supreme Leader Khamenei might intervene to allow
a paltry few reformers to compete, for the sake of appearances.
The MP claimed, however, that none of the reformist candidates
would go along with this transparent ploy.

GUARDIAN COUNCIL STILL TO REVIEW CANDIDATES

-------------- --------------


RPO DUBAI 00000004 002.2 OF 002


6.(U) These initial disqualifications were not done by the
Guardian Council, which has yet to see the candidates'
applications. The applications were first reviewed by electoral
supervisory commissions. According to the head of the Interior
Ministry elections headquarters, close to 40% of the
approximately 7,200 candidates who registered were found to have
criminal or legal records. He did not elaborate further about
the kinds of records which resulted in initial disqualification
by the electoral commissions. Disqualified candidates will have
more than one opportunity to protest their disqualifications.
Candidates can issue their protests between January 23-26; the
electoral commissions will then consider the protests between
January 27-February 3. Rejected candidates can protest again
between February 3-22, at which point the Guardian Council will
review the appeals. Candidates can appeal disqualifications by
the Guardian Council between February 23-26. Final results will
be announced March 5.


7. Comment: Heavy-handed disqualifications of reformist
candidates in these elections have long been expected, and are
likely to continue throughout the remainder of the vetting
process. A reformist boycott of the elections could be
significant if it results in low voter turnout on election day.
High voter turnout is viewed by many as an indication of
systemic legitimacy, and the government has always strongly
encouraged voter participation. If there is low voter turnout
due to a boycott, international criticism about the freedom and
fairness of elections in the Islamic Republic might resonate
more strongly with the Iranian public.
ASGARD