CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE IRANIAN PARLIAMENTARY RUNOFFS, AS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000025

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/27/2018
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE IRANIAN PARLIAMENTARY RUNOFFS, AS
EXPECTED

REF: RPO DUBAI 0008, 0012, 0013, 0015

RPO DUBAI 00000025 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Acting Director, Iran Regional
Presence Office, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(SBU) Summary: The April 25 runoff elections for the Iranian
Majles (parliament) confirmed that the newly-elected Majles will
be dominated by conservatives, as expected. The results of the
runoff elections do not represent any significant changes from
the results of the first round, held March 14. Final results
announced by the Interior Ministry indicate that conservatives
have won 58% of seats in the 290-member body. Reformists gained
six seats over the 40 they held in the outgoing Majles, winning
close to 16% of seats in this year's elections. Independents
won 24% of the seats. (Note: Domestic press quoted the Interior
Minister stating that conservatives won 69% of seats, however
some independents were included in that figure. End note.) In
the important Tehran constituency, conservatives won 10 of the
11 remaining contested seats, with the other seat going to a
reformist. According to the Interior Ministry, voter turnout in
Friday's runoff elections was 26%.

2.(C) Summary continued: Although these elections will have
little direct bearing on Iranian foreign or nuclear policy, they
will be relevant to Iranian domestic policy-particularly
economic policy-as we enter the final year of President
Ahmadinejad's first term. Once the new Majles takes office May
27, their first order of business will be to elect the Majles
Presidium, the speaker and two deputy speakers. The holders of
these influential positions can shape the tone of relations
between the new Majles and the president. There is a good
likelihood that current Majles speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel
will retain the position in the new Majles, although former
Supreme National Security Council (SNCS) secretary Ali Larijani
is reported to have his sights on the position as well. Both
men have had public differences of opinion with the president
and could use the forum of the speakership to continue
criticizing Ahmadinejad. End summary.

Nation-wide and Tehran results

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3. (C) Conservatives dominated the April 25 runoff elections for
the Iranian Majles, as expected. The results of the runoff
elections do not represent any significant changes from the
results of the first round, held on March 14, in which
conservatives also won the majority of seats. According to
results released by the Interior Ministry, the two main
conservative groups (UFP and BPCP) together took 170 of the 290
total seats in the Majles, giving conservatives 58% of the
Majles. (Note: Domestic press cited outgoing Interior Minister
Purmohammadi April 26 giving slightly different statistics,
saying that conservatives will hold 69% of seats in the
290-member parliament, with 16% going to reformists and 14% to
independents. However, some independents were included in the
69% figure. End note.) Interior Minister Purmohammadi reported
a 26% voter turnout in the April 25 runoff elections.

4.(C) The United Front of Principle-ists (UFP) has been
associated in the press with President Ahmadinejad. However,
the UFP list also includes some of the president's conservative
critics, including Elias Naderan, the top Tehran vote-getter in
Friday's runoff elections. The UFP won 27 seats in the runoff,
adding to the 90 seats they won in the first round. This gives
the UFP 40% of total seats in the Majles. In Tehran, ten
conservatives and one reformist won the remaining 11 Majles
seats in that constituency. All of the ten conservatives are
from the UFP.

5.(C) A separate group formed by Ahmadinejad's conservative
opponents (Broad and Popular Coalition of Principle-ists, BPCP)
won 11 seats, adding to the 42 won in the first round, giving
them 18% of total seats. The BPCP was led by a triumvirate of
conservative critics of President Ahmadinejad: former Supreme
National Security Council secretary Larijani (who was elected to
a seat in Qom in the first round),former IRGC commander Rezaie,
and Tehran Mayor Qalibaf. (Note: Rezaie and Qalibaf did not run
in the Majles elections. End note.)

6.(C) Reformists won at least 15 additional seats above the 31
from the first round, giving them close to 16% of seats. The
results of three seats were reportedly annulled by the Interior
Ministry for unspecified reasons. (Note: It is not clear how

RPO DUBAI 00000025 002.2 OF 002


the final results for those three seats will be determined. End
note.) If the results for the reformist seats are accurate,
these elections gave the reformists a net gain of 6 seats over
the 40 seats they held in the outgoing Majles. Independents
added 32 seats to the 39 from the first round, giving
independents 24% of seats in the new Majles. There are a
greater number of independents in this Majles, and it is
difficult to determine their political affiliations. If a
significant portion of these independents are reformist-leaning,
they could add strength to the reformist minority.

Next step: Election of Majles leadership positions

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7. (S) Once the new Majles takes office on May 27, their first
order of business will be to elect the Majles Presidium, the
speaker and two deputy speakers. After that, the chairs of the
various parliamentary committees will be selected. The
Presidium and committee chairs are influential positions, and
provide venues for public debate and possibly criticism of the
president's policies. It will be noteworthy whether many
prominent critics of Ahmadinejad gain leadership positions.
According to one Tehran-based political analyst, current Majles
speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel will likely be elected to the
position again, out of respect, but with expectations that he
will drop out to run for president in 2009, at which time
Larijani would take the speakership.

8.(C) Comment: Although these Majles elections will have little
direct bearing on Iranian foreign or nuclear policy, they will
be relevant to Iranian domestic policy-particularly economic
policy-as we enter the final year of President Ahmadinejad's
first term. However, some MPs may use parliament as a venue to
highlight the negative economic impact of Ahmadinejad's foreign
and nuclear policies on domestic economic conditions. As the
analyst suggests, there is indeed a good likelihood that current
Majles speaker Haddad-Adel will retain the position in the new
Majles, although Iranian press has reported that Larijani has
been lobbying for the position as well. Both men have had
public differences of opinion with the president and could use
the forum of the speakership to continue criticizing
Ahmadinejad. Analysis of the significance of the Majles
elections and results of the first round were reported in
reftels. End comment.
ASGARD