Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08HONGKONG3118
2008-01-01 23:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Consulate Hong Kong
Cable title:  

MIXED REACTION TO NPCSC DECISION ON HONG KONG

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK 
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VZCZCXRO2789
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHHK #3118/01 0012330
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 012330Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3771
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 003118 

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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2032
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: MIXED REACTION TO NPCSC DECISION ON HONG KONG
DEMOCRATIZATION

REF: A. HONG KONG 03103

B. BEIJING 07656

Classified By: E/P Acting Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 003118

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NOFORN
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2032
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: MIXED REACTION TO NPCSC DECISION ON HONG KONG
DEMOCRATIZATION

REF: A. HONG KONG 03103

B. BEIJING 07656

Classified By: E/P Acting Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Hong Kong's pan-democratic parties reacted
with disappointment and frustration to the December 29 PRC
National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC)
decision to defer universal suffrage for the Hong Kong Chief
Executive (CE) until 2017, and for the Legislative Council
(Legco) sometime thereafter (refs). The democrats are
concerned that the "very skillful" NPCSC decision had placed
them in a "very difficult situation" with regard to Hong Kong
public opinion, as Beijing might have offered enough hope for
progress to placate most Hong Kong voters. Also, the
democrats remain suspicious that details not included in the
proposal, particularly regarding the Legco functional
constituency (FC) seats and a nomination process for the CE
election, could further delay or derail progress. As
expected, Hong Kong's pro-establishment political parties
welcomed the decision, as did several leading businessmen.
Political commentator and NPC delegate Allen Lee told us the
decision had been a difficult one for Beijing, as it needed
to consider the possible reactions from within China, from
Hong Kong, and from foreign countries. In particular, Lee
said the potential effect of a more restrictive decision on
the September 2008 Legco election in Hong Kong had been the
most compelling factor. Lee believes the key problem for
political reform in Hong Kong continues to be that the
pan-democrats "just don't trust Beijing," but he also thinks
the NPCSC decision offers a "fair chance" for eventual
universal suffrage. End Summary.

Democrats Frustrated, Suspicious
--------------


2. (C) Hong Kong's pan-democratic parties reacted with
disappointment and frustration to the December 29 NPCSC
decision to defer universal suffrage for the Hong Kong CE

election until 2017, and for the Legco election sometime
thereafter (refs). In a public statement, the democrats
specifically protested the NPCSC's rejection of universal
suffrage for 2012 and its decision to maintain the existing
balance between FC and geographical constituency (GC) Legco
seats through at least the 2012 election. They also were
concerned that the central government in Beijing might have
offered enough hope for progress to placate most Hong Kong
voters, and suspicious that details unspecified in the
proposal could further delay or derail progress. Following a
December 29 evening meeting with visiting NPCSC Deputy
Secretary General Qiao Xiaoyang, Civic Party leader Audrey Eu

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told the press that their discussion with Qiao had left the
democrats even more disappointed, as Qiao had reaffirmed the
need to retain the FCs.


3. (C) On December 31, Civic Party Secretary General Joseph
Cheng told us the pan-democrats were "not happy" with the
NPCSC decision, which he described as a "very restrictive
proposal" that "offers very vague blank checks on the distant
future." Beijing had excluded the possibility of meaningful
reform in 2012, yet also demanded that if the democrats
rejected the Hong Kong Government's (HKG) yet to-be-proposed
marginal reforms for that year, then further reform for 2017
would be taken off the table. In other words, only if the
2012 and 2017 stages proceeded to Beijing's satisfaction
would 2020 could bring universal suffrage for Legco. Cheng
also said the pan-democrats suspected there would be multiple
"pitfalls and traps" throughout the implementation process;
for example, he said he and his colleagues remained
suspicious that Beijing would want to retain some sort of
"filtering process" for nomination of CE candidates, to
prevent anyone unacceptable to the central government from
even contesting the election. He also noted "grave doubts"
about whether and how the issue of the Legco FCs might be
resolved.


4. (C) Cheng said the NPCSC decision was "very skillful" and
had placed the pan-democrats in a "very difficult situation"
in the face of public opinion. The Hong Kong people did not
want confrontation, and Beijing already had given what
appeared to be considerable ground to the pan-democrats and
to popular demands. Reflecting even longer frustration,
Cheng described the proposal as "typical of the ploys adopted
by the (British) colonial administration." He concluded
that Beijing remained in control of Hong Kong's
democratization, which he said was "too important a process
to be left to Hong Kong." For that reason, Cheng believed

HONG KONG 00003118 002 OF 002


any chance for real change and democracy in Hong Kong would
depend on future reform in mainland China.

HKG, Pro-Government Parties Welcome NPCSC Decision
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) As noted in ref a, Hong Kong CE Donald Tsang warmly
welcomed the NPCSC decision, describing it as an important
step in Hong Kong's political development and future. While
calling for compromise and consensus from all sectors of the
community, Tsang also warned that conflicts and threats of
strife could only stall Hong Kong's political process.
Similarly, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and
Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) Chairman Tam Yiu-chung spoke
highly of the decision, saying it was a realistic assessment
of Hong Kong's situation. Liberal Party Chairman James Tien
said he was delighted that a timetable for implementation of
universal suffrage had been set, and he urged the
pan-democrats to cooperate to forge a consensus for universal
suffrage in 2017. The press also quoted several business
leaders who said the decision responded to people's demands.

Difficult Decision for Beijing
--------------


6. (C) On December 31, political commentator and NPC delegate
Allen Lee gave us a generally positive and optimistic view of
the NPCSC decision, which he believed had been a very
difficult one for Beijing. The central government had needed
to consider the possible reactions from within China, from
Hong Kong, and from foreign countries. In particular, Lee
said the potential effect of a more restrictive decision on
the September 2008 Legco election in Hong Kong had been the
most compelling factor. Had Beijing taken a tougher line,
Lee believed the pro-government parties in Hong Kong would
have "lost badly" in that election.


7. (C) According to Lee, the key problem for political reform
is that the pan-democrats "just don't trust Beijing." If
they somehow could find a way to work with both the central
government and the HKG, however, Lee believed there was a
"fair chance" that the NPCSC decision eventually could lead
to universal suffrage. He said he had been discussing ways
forward during the past few days with Democratic Party leader
Martin Lee, who he believed was amenable to some of his
suggestions. First, for the 2017 CE election, Allen Lee said
the democrats were concerned primarily about the
nominating/screening committee. He noted (and reminded
Martin),however, that nominations for Hong Kong's first CE
election in 1997, won by C.H. Tung, had been held through
secret ballot; if that safeguard could be revived, then he

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and Martin agreed that the democrats would become more
comfortable with the principle of a nominating commission.


8. (C) Second, for the Legco election process, Lee said the
key issue was the FCs, which he also had been discussing with
both Martin Lee and Liberal Party leader James Tien (whose
party holds eight FC seats). (Note: Underscoring the
importance of these Legco seats, Deputy Director Zhang
Xiaoming of the State Council's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs
Office told participants in RTHK's "City Forum" on December
29 that the FCs were very valuable and needed to be retained
to ensure stability and balanced representation.) According
to Allen Lee, Martin had expected further reform of the FCs
for 2012, and his negative public reaction to the NPCSC
decision stemmed partly from its exclusion of significant FC
reform until after 2017. Allen said Martin appeared to agree
that partial democratization of the FC election process, so
that FC members could nominate multiple candidates for
election by universal suffrage, would be acceptable, but that
Martin would not publicly agree to that strategy at this
time. Eventually, however, Allen believes that Martin would
accept something similar, as long as it included some form of
one person-one vote process for the FCs.

Public Opinion Poll
--------------


9. (SBU) A poll by the "Ming Pao" newspaper on December 29
found that 46.5 percent of respondents were satisfied with
the NPCSC decision to elect the CE by universal suffrage in
2017, compared to 33.2 percent who were not. For the Legco
election, 40 percent said universal suffrage in 2020 was "too
late," while 37 percent found that timing suitable.
Cunningham