HONG KONG ON MACAU ARTICLE 23: THROUGH A GLASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002229

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV MC HK
SUBJECT: HONG KONG ON MACAU ARTICLE 23: THROUGH A GLASS
DARKLY

REF: (A) HONG KONG 2126 (B) HONG KONG 2109

Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment: Hong Kong activists are watching
Macau's deliberations over Basic Law Article 23 legislation
with a mixture of concern and diffidence, mostly centered on
the issue of whether Macau is a dress rehearsal for Hong
Kong. On the one hand, Hong Kong activists have voiced most
of the same concerns with the bill as their Macau
counterparts, particularly on preparatory acts, state secrets
and investigative journalism (reftels). On the other, they
are reluctant to engage in a detailed discussion of a legal
system most profess not to understand. Hong Kong activists
seem to fear that, if they enter too far into the fray, they
may reinforce the idea that Macau and Hong Kong's Article 23
legislation are in fact linked, when they would prefer to
maintain the distinction. For Macau activists, bringing in
Hong Kong's "big names" carries risks as well. While their
"star quality" may rally the opposition base, Macau's small
democratic movement must be equally mindful of being
associated with "anti-China" forces. End summary and comment.

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One Country, Two Systems
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2. (C) While they express concerns about issues including
definitions of state secrets, preparatory acts and
protections for journalists in Macau's proposed Basic Law
Article 23 legislation (BL 23),Hong Kong activists are
equally adamant that what Macau does has no bearing on Hong
Kong. "Whether or not the Macau legislature passes this
(Article 23) bill is of no relevance to Hong Kong" stated the
Hong Kong Journalists Association. Margaret Ng, in stating
the Civic Party's (CP) position, took this a step further:
"...although the enactment of Article 23 legislation in Macau
has no direct relevance to Hong Kong, it will exert pressure
on Hong Kong to follow suit. Article 23 legislation has now
become the symbol for sovereignty in the eyes of some
mainland officials." Media, analysts (usually quoted
anonymously) and people in Macau, however, seem to think
there is a connection, and so we expect the discussion to
continue in this context.


3. (C) Democratic Party (DPHK) strategist Professor C.K. Law
told us he thinks the Hong Kong government understands the
public is no more receptive now to national security
legislation than it was in 2003. Chief Executive Donald
Tsang would not be so "stupid" as to make a renewed push for
BL 23 legislation before the 2012 Chief Executive/Legislative
Council elections, Law contends. (Comment: History suggests
reopening Article 23 before the elections would boost the
democrats at the expense of the pro-Beijing parties, a point
we expect both Beijing and the Hong Kong government
appreciate keenly. End comment.)

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Helping Hand, Arms Length
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4. (C) Law told us the official DPHK position on Macau BL 23
is that they will show support for their pan-democratic
counterparts in Macau, but on the basis that "they are the
hosts and we are the guests." Similarly, the Civic Party
told us they are "in touch with the democratic legislators in
Macau and are acutely aware of their difficulty in getting
the community to become more aware of the issues raised in
the proposed legislation." Democratic legislators Ronny Tong
(CP),Cyd Ho (independent),and Leung "Long Hair" Kwok-hung
(League of Social Democrats - LSD) traveled to Macau in late
November to participate in a conference with Macau democrats,
and "Long Hair" joined an 80-person protest march the day
before. However, while contacts all note the lack of expert
legal commentary on the Macau bill (ref A),none of the major
Hong Kong parties have offered to Macau counterparts the
expertise their members (particularly Margaret Ng) lent to
the Hong Kong debate. Contacts tell us one reason is that
Hong Kong's British Common Law-trained lawyers lack expertise
in Civil Law-based Macau legislation, but there is an equally
palpable sense of maintaining a distance.


5. (C) For the Macau activists, inviting in Hong Kong
counterparts is a double-edged sword. Macau-born Hong Kong
Lingnan University lecturer Dr. Ip Iam-chong (who also
participated in the conference) told us that too-strong
opposition to BL 23 legislation could actually cost the
democrats votes in Macau's more conservative culture. (Note:
Macau democrats have stressed in their statements that they
recognize Macau's obligation to pass a law, and limit

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themselves to specific points they wish to amend or remove
from the existing BL 23 draft. End note.) He also told us
Hong Kong civil society organizations are not particularly
credible in Macau. The logic of bringing a "Long Hair" or
Ronny Tong into the picture, Ip explains, is to draw
attention and perhaps mobilize the core of people inclined to
raise objections to the draft law. However, Ip sees a risk
in becoming associated with "anti-China" figures like Long
Hair. Media have reported Macau netizens were critical of
Long Hair's involvement in what they noted was otherwise a
very small protest.
DONOVAN