DEMOCRATS WIN THE FRONTIER BUT MAY LOSE ON EXCO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002197

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HK
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATS WIN THE FRONTIER BUT MAY LOSE ON EXCO

REF: HONG KONG 1272

Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: Emily Lau's "The Frontier"
political movement came to an all-but-official end this past
weekend, with Lau and her senior colleagues formally leaving
the group and joining the Democratic Party (DPHK). While
observers have long believed a consolidation of
pan-democratic forces would strengthen the movement at the
ballot box, no other parties or independents have lined up to
join the DPHK, or each other. DPHK itself welcomes further
mergers, and believes it could accommodate more incumbents
despite an already-crowded electoral field. Coalition
building among the democrats would be a healthy step toward
building parties as institutions with "brand recognition" and
the ability to train and develop political talent. It would
also reduce the often personality-based divisions in the camp
which have pitted democrats against each other during
elections. Meanwhile, press speculation that a democrat will
be chosen to join the Executive Council (ExCo) -- the Chief
Executive's cabinet and political sounding board -- is
dismissed by Lau and at least one of those reportedly under
consideration. Appointing a democrat to ExCo would be an
indicator that the Chief Executive is serious about finding a
consensus policy on democratic reform. End summary and
comment.

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The Frontier is Closed
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2. (U) When journalist Emily Lau Wai-hing ran in the first
Legislative Council (LegCo) election with directly-elected
geographic seats in 1991, she won more votes than any other
candidate and began her long tenure as a legislator (and the
first woman elected to LegCo) from New Territories East.
Placing second overall in 1995, she went on in 1996 to form
her own political movement, the Frontier. The Frontier
seated five members in both the 1998 and 2000 LegCo
elections, including Lau herself, Cyd Ho, Leung Yiu-chung,
Lau Chin-shek, and Lee Chuek-yan. By 2004, however, the
others had departed to run under other banners (Lau Chin-shek
and Lee for the Confederation of Trade Unions, Leung for the
Neighborhood and Workers Service Center, Ho as an independent
teamed with then-independent Audrey Eu),leaving Lau as the
sole Frontier member in LegCo. The 2008 election saw Lau
take the last of seven seats in the constituency, with press
having speculated she might lose. Some weeks later,
discussions opened between the Frontier and the Democratic
Party (DPHK),and the parties joined forces November 27. In
yet another first, Lau is the only woman to have served as a
DPHK legislator.


3. (C) Emily Lau told us on the eve of the September
elections she felt the democrats had never really coordinated
their efforts and that each faction running its own slates
was probably for the best. Now, however, she feels that
eight separate organizations for a field of only 23 LegCo
democrats has room for "some consolidation", which she hopes
will strengthen the pro-democracy movement. Press and our
contacts see Lau's decision to join her often-estranged
allies in the DPHK as having mostly to do with her
near-defeat. With Lau widely expected not to run for LegCo
again in 2012, observers think Lau sees joining forces as
preferable to the Frontier retiring with her (the Frontier
has three District Council seats and a membership of about
115, some of whom may choose to continue under the Frontier
banner). While Lau is known for her uncompromising
commitment to principles, DPHK strategist Professor C.K. Law
suggests she has "mellowed" and seems more amenable to
compromise now, thus making the merger possible. Emily Lau
intends to run for a DPHK vice chairmanship on a three-way
ticket with chairman Albert Ho and vice chairman Sin
Chung-kai, and C.K. Law thinks it is premature to count her
out of the 2012 LegCo elections.

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Further Consolidation?
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4. (C) A question now is whether the DPHK could win over
other members of the pan-democratic camp, with a DPHK-Civic
Party (CP) merger the most discussed. C.K. Law told us the
DPHK was open to joining with any of the other democrats, but
expected few would want to give up their independence "right
now". While Emily Lau stressed the importance of the merger
being handled well so that others would not "refrain from
joining", she also opposes "one party rule" and does not
intend to encourage others to join the DPHK. CP strategist
Professor Joseph Cheng didn't give us a clear answer about

HONG KONG 00002197 002 OF 002


his party's plans, perhaps in part due to an imminent CP
conclave to decide the party's future. Cheng did tell us he
expects the democratic camp will coordinate fairly closely on
the 2011 District Council elections, but that coordination
for LegCo elections was more complicated. That remark, plus
the lack of any public CP comment on forging a closer
alliance with the DPHK, suggests the CP intends to continue
as its own party for the time being.


5. (C) Independent Cyd Ho, who left the Frontier but remains
close to Emily Lau, told us she supports the merger. Ho's
history with the DPHK is bad: a last-minute appeal for votes
to support Martin Lee's DPHK slate on Hong Kong Island is
widely held to have drawn off the votes needed to re-elect Ho
in 2004. Nevertheless, she hopes for greater solidarity
among democrats, provided the coalition allows "toleration of
diversity", an indicator she may consider following Lau.
Inter alia, Lau's decision to join the DPHK led the
pan-democrats to anoint Ho to replace Lau as convener of
their "box lunch" caucus, on the principle that the convener
should be independent of the DPHK or CP.

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Democrats in ExCo
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6. (C) The media has speculated Chief Executive Donald Tsang
might extend an olive branch to the democrats by offering a
seat in the Executive Council (an inner cabinet including the
chiefs of Hong Kong's executive branch bureaux, key
legislators, and eminent persons). (Note: Former LegCo
member Professor Anthony Cheung, who led democratic
proto-party The Meeting Point and was a Vice Chair of the
DPHK until 2004, is reckoned as a democratic voice in ExCo,
but is not a current DPHK member. End note.) Two names
which have been mentioned are both in the DPHK: strategist
C.K. Law and DPHK vice chairman Sin Chung-kai. Both are
senior party members and former legislators -- Law held the
Social Welfare Functional Constituency seat until 2004, while
Sin stepped down from the IT Functional Constituency in 2008.
Were Sin to be re-elected party vice chair, Law would seem
to be the more logical choice for both sides. Whomever Tsang
appoints (a ExCo re-shuffle is widely expected),Law
anticipates the new appointments to be announced prior to
Chinese New Year in late January.


7. (C) C.K. Law told us that, while he personally would
prefer to avoid the demands of the post, he feels he would be
unable to refuse the appointment for political reasons. That
said, Law rates his or any other democrat's chances of
appointment as low. On the one hand, he surprised us by
saying he thought the government found the DPHK easier to
deal with than its putative allies in the Democratic Alliance
for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and the Liberal Party,
since DPHK did not demand political quid pro quo for its
support on each issue. On the other hand, he thinks enough
hardliners in both Hong Kong and Beijing object to a democrat
on ExCo to prevent any appointment. (Comment: We have seen
nothing to suggest the government regards the DPHK as easier
to deal with than either the DAB or the Liberal Party. While
both those "pro-government" parties have shown an increasing
willingness to oppose the government when they find it
politically beneficial to do so, both still publicly support
constructive relations with the government. The Government,
from the CE down, also still gives every indication it
regards at least the DAB as its ally. On the other hand,
some government officials have termed the pan-democrats as
the "anti-government camp" in discussions with us. End
comment.)


8. (C) Emily Lau also rated the prospects for a democratic
appointment to ExCo as low. Even should Tsang chose to make
a token appointment, Lau said he would choose from among the
"softest" democrats like C.K. Law and Sin Chung-kai, whom she
says have close links to the establishment. Appointing a
token democrat to ExCo is "window dressing", Lau argues,
since an individual bound by ExCo rules of confidentiality
could not effectively represent a party. She called for a
"coalition government" in which parties would serve in a real
cabinet as heads of policy bureaux. (Note: Under SAR law,
even "political appointees" are required to sever their links
with any political party. End Note.)
DONOVAN