LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTIONS: DEMOCRATS NARROWLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 001666

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HK
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTIONS: DEMOCRATS NARROWLY
HOLD BLOCKING MINORITY

REF: (A) HONG KONG 01653 (B) HONG KONG 01654 (C) HONG
KONG 1272

Classified By: CG Joseph R. Donovan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and Comment: By holding on to 23 of the
Legislative Council's (Legco) 60 seats, Hong Kong's
pan-democratic caucus has saved its 1/3 "blocking minority"
-- barely. While the government will not be able to dictate
the terms of electoral and other constitutional reforms, the
democrats will need greater vigilance and bloc unity than in
the previous Legco (when they held 26 seats),in order to
prevent their "blocking minority" from being eroded on
particular votes. End Summary and Comment.


2. (C) In September 7's Legco elections, the pan-Democrats
did better than expected in the geographic constituencies
(GC),retaining their current 19 seats. Their two defeated
incumbents -- the Democratic Party's (DPHK) Yeung Sum on Hong
Kong Island and pro-democracy Confederation of Trade Unions'
(CTU) Lau Chin-shek -- were both replaced by other democrats.
Three features characterized the races. First, independent
activist and former Legco member Cyd Ho's victory allows the
pan-democrats to maintain their four-of-six-seats hold on
Hong Kong Island. Many observers had expected that Hong Kong
Island would instead revert to its previous three-three split
with the pro-Beijing camp (ref C).


3. (C) Second was the rise of new-generation leaders. The
pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong
Kong (DAB) seated rookies Starry Lee (party leader Jasper
Tsang's protege) and Gary Chan, and the Civic Party (CP) won
a seat for Tanya Chan (CP leader Audrey Eu's protege). The
DPHK added a surprise victory for Wong Sing-chi in New
Territories East to their long-anticipated win for Kam
Nai-wai on Hong Kong Island, thus seating two of their new
"DP4" leaders (ref B).


4. (C) Third and perhaps most striking was the rout of the
pro-business, pro-Beijing Liberal Party (LP) from the GCs,
with Party Leader James Tien (New Territories East) and
senior member Selina Chow (New Territories West) both
defeated. Pro-labor candidates in both camps did well, which
may indicate support for the big business-oriented Liberal
Party among rank-and-file voters is fading.


5. (C) The pan-democrats held on to four of their traditional
functional constituency seats -- Education, Social Welfare,
Legal and Health Services -- but lost incumbent seats in
Information Technology, Accountancy and Medical. The
functional constituencies represent specific economic and
social sectors and are dominated by pro-establishment
independents and pro-Beijing parties.
DONOVAN