OUTLOOK FOR HONG KONG LEGCO ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 001653

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HK
SUBJECT: OUTLOOK FOR HONG KONG LEGCO ELECTIONS

REF: HONG KONG 1599

Classified By: Consul General Joseph R. Donovan for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The pan-democratic camp should hold on to at
least a third of the 60 seats in the September 7 Legislative
Council (Legco) Elections, narrowly depriving pro-government
and pro-Beijing forces the 2/3 supermajority required to
change the Basic Law and electoral arrangements. The crucial
issue for the pan-democrats will be how many seats above the
bare minimum of 21 needed for a "blocking minority" they will
win. If they have only 21 or 22 seats, the government and
the pro-Beijing camp may be able on some issues to sway the
one or two votes needed to break the blocking minority. End
summary.

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Analytical Caveats
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2. (C) The predictions below are based on conversations with
our contacts across the political spectrum, media reporting
and analysis, and published polls by both the University of
Hong Kong and Chinese University of Hong Kong. With "best
case" defined as the democrats winning every seat they have a
reasonable chance of winning, and "worst case" being defeat
in every contest they have not locked up, we see the spread
thus:

Constituency Open Current Best Worst
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Hong Kong Island 6 4 4 3
Kowloon East 4 3 2 2
Kowloon West 5 3 4 3
New Territories East 7 4 4 3
New Territories West 8 5 5 4
Functionals 30 7 8 4
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Total 60 26 27 19

Thus, from a status quo of 26 seats, the democrats could go
as high as 27 or as low as 19 (less than the minimum to
maintain their "blocking minority"). The median estimate
from a broad range of contacts has the democrats winning a
total of 21-23 seats, for a net loss of 3-5 seats.


3. (C) Polls in Hong Kong are problematic as an analytical
tool because they reflect the trend among Hong Kong voters to
change their support from a slate in their respective
political camp which seems assured of victory to one which
seems to need more support. Thus, particularly as elections
approach, popular incumbents will often appear to lose their
early leads, as their supporters consider where else their
votes might be needed. As a result, all parties in both
camps can be expected to issue panic warnings to ensure their
constituents go to the polls September 7. A complicating
factor this year is the pan-democratic-led outcry against the
use of exit polling by the pro-Beijing camp to direct voters
on election day (legal, but too expensive for the democrats
to match),which has put all polling in a bad light and
lowered participation rates.

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Hong Kong Island
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4. (C) The democrats will win at least three and possibly
four of the six seats on Hong Kong Island. We expect the
Democratic Party's (DPHK) Kam Nai-wai will take the seat
vacated by retiring DPHK leader Martin Lee, but that
incumbent Yeung Sum (number two on the DPHK's only slate)
will lose his seat. The Civic Party's (CP) slate will win
seats for both incumbent party leader Audrey Eu and her
protege Tanya Chan. Chan heads the slate, so their victory
appears to represent a CP gain from the DPHK's loss, although
both slates should win a portion of Anson Chan's supporters.
The two existing pro-Beijing seats, Legco President Rita Fan
and the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong
(DAB) incumbent Ms. Choy So-yuk will likely go to former
Security Secretary Regina Ip and DAB heavyweight Jasper
Tsang. Tsang is an incumbent, but has moved from his former
Kowloon West constituency to Hong Kong Island. Rita Fan is
retiring and moving on to an anticipated National People's
Congress Standing Committee seat. Choy, forced by the DAB
leadership to take the number two position behind Tsang, will
likely lose her seat because of pro-Beijing defections to
Regina Ip's slate. The final seat, which we reckon as the
one opened by Anson Chan's retirement, is still up for grabs.
The favorite, albeit barely, is Civic Act-up activist and
former Legco member Ms. Cyd Ho. Her best shot at winning is

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a sufficiently fierce contest between the DAB and Regina Ip
that results in each slate getting more seats than needed for
one seat, but too few for a second, which will lower the
share of the vote Ho needs to win her seat (see reftel).
Previously, the pro-Beijing camp probably would have tried to
engineer victories for Ip, Tsang and Choy, but after Ip
spurned DAB support following her 2007 by-election defeat,
the two slates have been in open competition. Should Ho fail
to draw enough support, the next most likely challenger is Ip
slate number two Louis Shih.

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Kowloon East
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5. (C) One democratic seat in Kowloon East is lost because of
redistricting to Kowloon West, and we expect the remaining
seats will be split between two democratic and two
pro-Beijing incumbents. Incumbents Fred Li (DPHK),Alan
Leong (CP),and Chan Kam-lam (DAB) are expected to hold their
seats. Pro-Beijing Federation of Trade Unions (FTU)
incumbent Ms. Chan Yuen-han has dropped to number two on the
FTU slate, leading us to expect slate headliner Wong Kwok-kin
will take Chan's seat. However, the FTU has openly declared
its willingness to compete with the DAB for votes. Polls
indicate the FTU is more popular than the DAB as a "brand",
so an upset is not impossible. Independent democrat Albert
Cheng is seen as the seat lost in the re-allocation to
Kowloon West, and is not running.

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Kowloon West
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6. (C) The democrats will win at least three if not four of
Kowloon West's five seats. DPHK's James To and the
Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood's (ADPL)
Frederick Fung are tipped to retain their seats, although
recent polls show a slip for To. Ms. Starry Lee is expected
to replace Jasper Tsang in the DAB's seat. Pro-democracy
Confederation of Trade Unions' (CTU) Lau Chin-shek could
normally expect reelection, but for reasons currently unclear
has declined to take part in election fora, which may cost
him his seat. That plus the addition of a new seat has
opened up the race, making it one of the most dynamic.
Rookies Wong Yuk-man (pro-democracy League of Social
Democrats, or LSD) and Claudia Mo (CP) are polling well
enough that we expect both to take seats. While independent
(but allegedly Beijing-backed) Priscilla Leung polls fairly
well, the pro-Beijing camp will look first to Starry Lee, and
would need an extremely high degree of accuracy in its
exit-poll guided vote management both to guarantee Lee's seat
yet still send enough votes to Leung to win a seat. Liberal
Party (LP) rookie Michael Tien, brother of LP leader James
Tien, seems out of the running.

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New Territories East
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7. (C) Polling suggests the democrats are at some risk of
losing a seat in New Territories East, but we expect them to
hold their current four out of seven. The DAB may actually
win two seats off te same slate here, with incumbent Lau
Kwong-wah expected to return and rookie Gary Chan expected to
take retiring DAB incumbent Li Kwok-ying's seat. LP leader
James Tien, DPHK's Andrew Cheng, and the CP's Ronny Tong are
epected to be reelected. Some contacts and polls hve
suggested, with varying degrees of conviction that the
Frontier's Emily Lau and LSD's Leung Kok-hung (aka Long
Hair) are less secure now than n the past. Nothing we've
seen suggests to us Lu will not return to Legco. A case
could be mad that the voters may be tiring of Long Hair's
lack of a record in Legco of anything other than disruptive
publicity stunts, and Leung himself has suggested bitterly in
the media he might lose his seat to another democrat, perhaps
DPHK rookie Wong Sing-chi. Leung has a hard core of support,
however, and we find it most likely he will scrape by in the
end. While Wong is one of DPHK's young leaders receiving
particular support (septel),voters who defect from Long Hair
could just as easily split their votes up among Cheng, Tong,
and Lau as they could back Wong. Should Leung lose his seat,
but Wong lose as well, the next most likely scenario is that
independent (but allegedly Beijing-backed) Scarlett Pong
would win. Her problem is the same as Wong's -- we expect
the DAB ticket to sweep the available pro-Beijing votes in
order to seat Lau and Chan, leaving too little support to
elect Leung.

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New Territories West
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8. (C) We expect the democrats to hold on to their five of
New Territories West's eight seats, although number five is
at some risk. Incumbents Albert Ho and Lee Wing-tat, heading
separate DPHK slates, should be reelected, as should CTU
incumbent Lee Cheuk-yan. Leung Yiu-chung, an incumbent in
the smaller pro-democratic labor movement the Neighbourhood
and Workers Service Center, should also be reelected. LP
incumbent Selina Chow is polling lower, but also appears
safe. DAB's decision to put two incumbents -- Party Chairman
Tam Yiu-chung and Cheung Hok-ming -- on a single slate is a
riskier bet here, particularly with the more popular FTU
running Wong Kwok-hing (currently serving as one of three
Legco members in the Labor Functional Constituency).
However, Cheung is backed by the Heung Yee Kuk, a regional
council representing indigenous communities in the New
Territories, and thus we believe he will edge out Wong. For
the remaining seat, LSD incumbent Albert Chan would seem to
have the best chance. CP's Fernando Cheung, who currently
serves in the Social Welfare Functional Constituency, lacks a
local base of support, and would need to draw votes from five
incumbent pan-democrats to win.

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Functional Constituencies (FC) (30 seats)
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9. (C) The democrats hold seven FC seats but could lose two.
All remaining seats will be either pro-Beijing or
pro-establishment independents. CP will probably keep
Margaret Ng's seat in the Legal FC, lose Mandy Tam's in the
Accountancy FC, and might pick up a new seat for Albert Wai
in the Engineering FC. CP's Paul Zimmerman is contesting the
open Tourism FC, but will probably lose. DPHK should hold
Cheung Man-kwong's seat in the Education FC and may win a
seat for Tik Chi-yuen in Social Welfare. DPHK's Stanley Ng
is challenging incumbent independent Patrick Lau in the
Architecture, Surveying and Planning FC and will probably
lose. Independent democrat Joseph Lee should hold the Health
Services FC seat, but fellow independent democrat Kwok Ka-ki
may be at risk in the Medical FC from HKU Professor Ho
Pak-leung, an independent. Retiring Information Technology
incumbent (and DPHK Vice-Chair) Sin Chong-kai will likely be
replaced by independent democrat Charles Mok, who enjoys
support from telecom magnate (and Li Ka-shing prodigal son)
Richard Li. Mok is rumored to be planning to join the Civic
Party after election.
DONOVAN