UNDERSTANDING HONG KONG'S LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 001599

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER
DEPT FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2033
TAGS: PGOV PHUM HK
SUBJECT: UNDERSTANDING HONG KONG'S LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
ELECTION SYSTEM

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL JOSEPH DONOVAN. Reasons: 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Hong Kong's fourth Legislative Council
(Legco) elections on September 7 will directly affect the
pace and direction of the Special Autonomous Region's
democratic development. Legco's convoluted election system
-- one that confuses most Hong Kong voters -- creates its own
campaign dynamic and shapes the election strategies of both
the pan-democrat and pro-Beijing parties alike. The
60-member body is divided evenly between representatives from
geographic and functional constituencies. Geographic
candidates face restrictive campaign spending limits that
force parties to strategize about the ordering of candidates
on slates and the number of slates to run in a single
district. Functional candidates must base their campaign
tactics on the number of eligible electors in a particular
constituency as well as the type of voting method used.
Carefully choosing and executing the right strategy in each
constituency is key to the pan-democrats retaining their
blocking minority in Legco. End Summary


2. (C) Hong Kong's fourth Legislative Council (Legco)
elections on September 7 will directly affect the pace and
direction of its democratic development. Because a
two-thirds majority in Legco is required for changes to the
Basic Law's procedures for choosing the Chief Executive, the
pan-democrats must retain at least 21 of the 26 seats they
currently hold in the 60-seat body to be able to challenge
whatever reform proposals the Executive tables. As
stipulated under the Basic Law, Legco members are elected to
four-year terms from both geographic and functional
constituencies. All 60 seats are up for grabs, although 14
functional representatives are running uncontested. While
3.7 million voters are eligible to cast ballots for the 30
geographic representatives, only 230,000 electors will chose
30 representatives in 28 functional constituencies.
Knowledge of the tortuous Legco election system helps
understand some of the challenges to Hong Kong's nascent
democracy.

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The Geographic Constituencies
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3. (U) Geographic representatives are chosen from the
following multi-seat districts:

District Number of Seats

Hong Kong Island 6
Kowloon East 4
Kowloon West 5
New Territories East 7
New Territories West 8


4. (SBU) In the geographic constituencies voters cast one
ballot for a slate of candidates who are usually party
affiliated. Candidates on each slate are listed in rank
order. The top candidate on a slate is elected if the
slate's vote count exceeds the total number of valid votes
cast, divided by the number of seats in that district. For
example, if 480,000 votes were cast in the Hong Kong Island
district with six seats, a slate would need 80,000 votes in
order for its top candidate to be elected. If three slates
each received 80,000 votes, each would win one seat. For the
remaining seats, a second minimum would be set by taking the
number of votes received by the highest-winning slate minus
the initial 80,000. So, if the highest-winning slate
received 120,000 votes, then the new minimum would be 40,000,
and the remaining seats would be filled by slates with more
that 40,000 votes in order of votes received. After this
round, any remaining seats are filled in order of vote total.
This convoluted process, a mystery to most Hong Kong
residents, creates its own campaign dynamic and election
strategies.


5. (C) First, geographic constituency candidates need only
appeal to a core group of supporters rather than the
electorate at-large. The need to cultivate a core group
forces parties to decide whether they are strongest running
as a party "brand" in which case they would put all their
candidates on one slate; or on the appeal of individual
candidates, in which case they might run multiple slates in
the same district, allowing popular candidates to head his or
her own slate. Some parties have also chosen to run a single
candidate slate to ensure the election of their party leader
but thereby forgoing any chance to elect several
representatives.

HONG KONG 00001599 002 OF 002




6. (C) Those parties able to allocate votes have a distinct
advantage. Some households supporting the pan-democrat or
pro-Beijing camps will themselves divide their votes among
several slates in order to maximize the number of successful
candidates for their side. Pan-democratic candidates charge
pro-Beijing parties encourage this process among their
supporters by conducting exit polls on election day to
determine which slates have obtained sufficient votes and
then instructing their remaining supporters to cast their
ballots for another allied slate. This practice is not
illegal, but is strongly discouraged by the Election Affairs
Commission.


7. (SBU) Each of the five geographic constituencies has its
own election spending limit which is determined by the number
of registered voters. The limits are meant to prevent
candidates with significant personal financial resources from
having an unfair advantage, but in practice the limits are so
low as to greatly limit candidates' ability to reach
audiences. Candidates have few options other than
on-the-ground canvassing with handbills, campaign posters,
and attending community forums sponsored by local NGOs or
media. Many now use Facebook and other free online media to
disseminate information and build support.

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The Functional Constituencies
--------------


8. (SBU) The 28 functional constituencies (labor elects three
representatives) are composed of economic and social groups,
including representatives from the legal, catering and sports
fields, as well as rural assemblies and district councils.
Only 230,000 voters are eligible to participate in functional
constituency elections, less than that of any single
geographic constituency. The electoral pool in each
functional constituency varies widely, with 150,000 voters
spread among the three largest and less than 200 voters in
the four smallest. Each functional constituency formulates
its own rules for selecting electors. If an individual's
professional responsibilities or business interests spread
across multiple constituencies, s/he may be eligible to vote
in several functional constituencies.


9. (SBU) The functional constituencies use two methods to
elect their Legco representatives. The four smallest
constituencies select their candidates by voter ranking the
candidates in order of preference. A candidate must obtain an
absolute majority of the first preference votes to be
elected. The remaining 24 functional constituencies use the
"first past the post" method; the candidate who obtains the
greatest number of votes is elected regardless of his or her
percentage of the total.


10. (C) While a number of functional constituency races
include sharp competition among party and independent
candidates, their club-like nature is best demonstrated by
the fact that 14 of the 30 incumbents will be returned
uncontested. While the Basic Law calls for the eventual
election of the entire Legco by universal suffrage, sharp
debate continues as to whether the functional constituencies
are innately incompatible with universal suffrage or could
continue with restructured and broadened electorates.
DONOVAN