KARBALA BOMBING SENERIOS

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SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/27/2018
TAGS: PTER PGOV PINR PREL IZ
SUBJECT: KARBALA BOMBING SENERIOS

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CLASSIFIED BY: Larry Carson, IPAO, PRT KARBALA, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(d)


1. (U) This is a PRT Karbala reporting cable.


2. (S) Summary: At 1745 hours on 17 March 2008, a bomb exploded
at a small cafi in Karbala City. The initial attack killed 45
civilians and wounded 65. Since the initial attack, there has
been considerable confusion, and much speculation, about its
exact nature. In addition, the investigation and the
description are now being used to advance the political agendas
of some of the key players. While we have our views as to what
the attack was, the best, and perhaps most useful, analysis we
can give at this time is that the evidence is inconclusive. End
Summary

3. (S) On 17 March 2008, a bomb exploded at a small cafi,
approximately 300 meters from the Mukhaym Mosque in Karbala
City. The 33rd IA BDE (Iraqi Army Brigade) and Iraqi Police in
Karbala reported a "woman suicide bombing". These reports led
to the conclusion that this was an AQI attack which was
condemned by Embassy and MNF-I. Subsequently, Karbala Operation
Center commander Major General Ra 'ad stated that this was in
fact an assassination attempt against the Karbala ERU commander
LTC. Ali. He further stated it was not a suicide vest, but a
satchel/case type IED explosive device. Reviewing security
camera footage of the bombing shows a woman with her back to the
camera and then an explosion. It is not possible from this
camera angle to determine if in fact it was a vest or not. The
woman was certainly in the vicinity of the blast and may or may
not have carried out the attack. However the explosion does
appear to be much larger than normally caused by a suicide vest.
We watched raw UAV footage for several hours over Karbala after
the event and over the course of several days have followed the
investigation closely. We have also watched the tapes from a
security camera that caught part of the explosion. PRT Karbala
will discuss what it believes are four (4) possible scenarios
for this attack.


4. (S) Scenario A: AQI is behind the explosion - after
reviewing the evidence this seems unlikely. The report that
this was an AQI attack arose because this was reported as a
woman suicide bomber - a signature technique for AQI and one
virtually unknown among the Shia militias. AQI usually claims
credit for its work. It takes pride in its martyrs and methods.
To date AQI has not claimed responsibility for this attack.
Tactically, this type of attack by AQI in Karbala would seem
counterproductive. Karbala has a relatively small ethnic Sunni
population living in comparative peace. So much so that there
are Sunni families that have taken refuge with relatives in this
Shia dominated province. An attack of this type carried out b y
AQI would likely shatter that peace and could potentially lead
to ethnic cleansing.


5. (S) Scenario B: Sadrist woman suicide bomber. We view this
as unlikely. Sadrists, for religious reasons, have not and
likely would not use a woman as a suicide bomber. During this
year's cease fire JAM has been watching what other militias have
been able to accomplish through the use of woman bombers. They
have seen the cost in public support caused by this tactic. We
do believe that Sadrist could have used a woman to carry an
explosive device (IED) in through security and place for a
possible assassination attempt.


6. (S) Scenario C: Woman used to smuggle IED into secure area,
possibly in an assassination attempt. Specifically, Karbala
Operations Center Commander IP General Ra'ad has state that this
was a Sadrist/JAM assassination attempt against Lt. Col. Ali of
the Iraqi Police. Ali has unquestionably been the subject of
several assassination attempts (the latest, an IED attack
against his convoy, wounded several Iraqi police in his PSD).
According to Ra'ad, Ali frequents this cafi. We have also
received reports that the bomber was a prostitute, had no family
and was used to skirt past security (IP do not search women at
checkpoints if there are no woman IP available to conduct a
search). According to this scenario, she placed the IED and it
prematurely detonated. Ali has been rousting local Sadrists,
who believe (perhaps correctly) that Karbala's security forces
are working to eliminate them from the political scene
completely. Members of JAM have started to fight back, even
before Sadr's announcement that they could defend themselves.
This pushback is likely to continue as both sides jockey for
power in the run up to elections. The press has reported widely
that Sadrist are blaming Ra'ad and Ali for reneging on an
agreement that was signed several months ago. The Senior
Sadrist of Karbala Sheik Abdul - Hadi Al-Mohammadawi has asked
for Sistani to intervene with this issue.


7. (S) That said, blaming Sadrists/JAM for an attempt against
Ali does several things for Ra'ad. It deflects attention from

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the IP's failure to intercept this bomb at an IP checkpoint and
stop this attack from occurring. It generates sympathy for the
IP as victims of Sadrist violence. Most importantly, it
provides as excuse for the Karbala IP to take even stronger
action against the Sadrists.


8. (S) Scenario D: Wrong Place, Wrong Time. The bomb was
already in place and the woman either was walking next to it
when it exploded or did something that triggered a premature
detonation. It's impossible to determine from the tape if the
woman was responsible or not. It is conceivable the bomb was
already in place and she happened upon it. This would still be
consistent with local politics and the assassination attempt
scenario. Suicide attempt or not, this was a powerful
anti-personnel device (loaded with pellets). Any nearby
eyewitnesses were either killed or seriously wounded.


9. (S) While each of us has our own preferred interpretation of
the evidence and the circumstances; the only thing we can say
definitively is that the evidence is inconclusive and that the
various actors in this drama will attempt to use this tragedy
for their own tactical/political advantage.

10. (S) Comment: We've been watching the investigation unfold
and have a number of comments. We've heard that Governor Aqeel
is under a lot of pressure from the Government of Iraq (GOI) to
follow the party line and blame AQI for this event. Ra'ad has
his reasons for calling it an assassination attempt against Ali.
That said, the characteristics of the blast and the local
political situation argue for a local group setting up an
anti-personnel device targeting either Ali, someone else, or
designed to produce mass panic. If that is the case, the
Sadrists/JAM may have provided MG Ra'ad the excuse he needs for
an even more robust crackdown. Ra'ad is gunning for the
Sadrists; he is pursuing a possible arrest against the Head
Sadrist in Karbala and recently filed a complaint against him in
the Courts. He has requested an additional 1500 IP to arrest
Sheik Abdul - Hadi Al-Mohammadawi. All of this may have to
wait, as Ra'ad has been ordered to Basrah to support efforts
against Sadrists in that region. We are rapidly approaching a
point where attempts for reconciliation, by us or by others,
will be rendered all but impossible. End Comment.

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