RAUL'S JULY 26TH SPEECH A NON-EVENT THIS YEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000608

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON CU
SUBJECT: RAUL'S JULY 26TH SPEECH A NON-EVENT THIS YEAR

REF: A. HAVANA 592

B. HAVANA 593

Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) The evening of July 26th, in celebration of the 55th
anniversary of the attack on the Moncada barracks in
Santiago, which launched the Castro revolution in Cuba, Raul
Castro addressed an assembled group of about 10,000 selected
supporters gathered at the former barracks, now converted
into a school. Serving as a backdrop for the podium was a
huge poster featuring an image of Fidel and Cuban national
hero Jose Marti with the words "The Victory of Ideas"
underneath. Anyone who thought Raul might use the occasion
to announce new or substantive ideas came away disappointed.
Instead, he gave a comparatively short (less than an hour)
speech that sounded like a small town mayor giving a rundown
of civic improvements at a monthly town council meeting.
With the local audience in mind, he cited all of the
infrastructure work the GOC is doing in and around Santiago,
including ongoing cleanup from Tropical Storm Noel, which
took place in October 2007. Raul also praised the work of
Fidel and all of those patriots who had sacrificed so much to
make Cuba what it is today (The victory of ideas perhaps?
Not even rhetorical evidence of that in his speech.). In a
nod towards his apparently genuine interest in
decentralization, he quipped to nervous laughter that if the
Santiagueros did not like the way the projects were turning
out, they should take their complaints to the Minister of
Public Works and to the provincial and municipal chiefs, whom
he identified by name. They squirmed in their seats. He
once again warned that Cuba is facing increasing challenges
to its economy and that only hard work and discipline will
see it through.


2. (C) He referred to the social security and land
distribution programs he had discussed in his July 11 address
to the National Assembly. He did not announce anything new
on these issues, adding only that it appears that the
government needs to work harder to get out the word on the
Social Security plan since many people apparently did not
understand what he had said in his speech. He praised the
military and said it is more ready than ever to repel the
expected invasion (from the US). Aside from that allusion,
his only mention of us was to blame the world food crisis on
US biofuels policy.


3. (C) There were some notable style differences. As noted,
he spent virtually no time attacking the US, and blamed the
collapse of the Soviet Union--and specifically the so-called
"Special Period" in the early 1990s--for the fact that
eastern Cuba remains so backward. Also, where in the past
there was a clear hierarchy and he and Fidel sat apart on the
dais, for this speech no one sat on the dais. Instead, until
he spoke Raul was seated with the members of the Politburo in
the first row of the audience.


4. (C) COMMENT: After the lack of substance in the July 11
speech and the absence of the usual buzz about potential
change announcements prior to the 26th, we were not surprised
by the outcome of Raul's address. Nor does it seem likely
at this point that there will be significant announcements in
the near future--and possibly not for the rest of the year.
The reaction of Cubans with whom we have spoken has been one
of resigned frustration. As opportunities to announce
substantive reforms come and go with nothing of note
proposed, Cubans seem increasingly discouraged that things
will get better in the short to medium term. The most
profound reaction to the lack of substance in the speech may
be measured by the numbers who decide to take to the sea over
the next 3 months while the weather remains relatively calm.

FARRAR