CUBA: LOOKING AHEAD TO 24 FEBRUARY -- SEEMINGLY

S E C R E T HAVANA 000182

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR D (CONAWAY),P, WHA A/S SHANNON
WHA ALSO FOR PDAS KELLY, DAS MADISON, TRANSITION
COORDINATOR MCCARRY, WHA/CCA (WILLIAMS)
DEPT ALSO FOR INR (CARHART),S/P (MCILHENEY)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINT CU US
SUBJECT: CUBA: LOOKING AHEAD TO 24 FEBRUARY -- SEEMINGLY
ROUTINE, BUT UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN CUBAN HISTORY

Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D

SUMMARY


1. (S) FEBRUARY 24 WILL, ON THE SURFACE, BE STRAIGHTFORWARD:
SELECTION/CONFIRMATION OF WHO FIDEL AND RAUL WANT AS THE NEW
CHIEF OF THE COUNCIL OF STATE, FOLLOWED BY NAMING OF THE
CABINET. WHAT IS UNIQUE ON THIS OCCASION IS THAT THERE HAS
NEVER BEEN SUCH A SELECTION WITHOUT FIDEL BEING FORMALLY IN
CHARGE. FIDEL COULD REVERSE HIS 18 FEBRUARY "SHERMAN
STATEMENT," AND HE IS CHARACTERISTICALLY TRYING TO
MICRO-MANAGE THE TRANSITION, BUT WE ALREADY SEE HIS GRIP
SLIPPING AS CUBANS HAVE STARTED MOVING ON. THE SPOTLIGHT IS
ON RAUL. WE BELIEVE RAUL WILL ESCHEW FIDEL'S MEDIA-CONSCIOUS
AND MONOPOLIZING STYLE OF RULE; THERE IS EVEN A GOOD CHANCE
HE WILL NOT CLAIM THE SPOT HEADING THE COUNCIL OF STATE, AND
RETURN TO HIS CONCENTRATION ON THE CUBAN MILITARY, GIVEN WAY
TO MORE COLLEGIAL, IF STILL DICTATORIAL RULE. WHAT WE DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE RIGHT AWAY IS WHAT THE NEW CUBAN GOVERNMENT
ORGANS WILL DO IN POWER, AND THE INABILITY -- OR
UNWILLINGNESS -- OF RAUL TO LEAN STRONGLY TOWARDS ORTHODOXY
OR IN THE DIRECTION OF REFORM MAY KEEP US GUESSING FOR A
WHILE. HOWEVER, RAUL HAS LIFTED THE LID WITH HIS TALK OF THE
NEED TO REFORM THE WAY CUBA WORKS, AND POPULAR EXPECTATION OF
CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS IN THEIR LIVES IS PUSHING GOVERNMENT
POLICY LIKE IT NEVER HAS BEFORE IN THE 49-PLUS YEARS OF
CASTRO'S REVOLUTION. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE TAKEN UP RIGHT
AWAY, THE ISSUE OF DEALING WITH THE UNITED STATES WILL BECOME
EVER MORE THE OBSESSION OF RAUL AND HIS TEAM. RAUL AND THOSE
HE HELPS NAME ON 24 FEBRUARY WILL THUS FACE CHALLENGES
UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN CUBAN HISTORY. IF IT IS A TALL
ORDER, IT IS OF HIS AND HIS BROTHER'S MAKING. END SUMMARY.


THE 24 FEBRUARY EVENT: STRAIGHTFORWARD


2. (SBU) WHAT HAPPENS IN HAVANA ON SUNDAY 2/24 IS AT FIRST
GLANCE STRAIGHTFORWARD. "GRANMA" LAID IT OUT IN ITS 2/21
EDITION. THE 614 DELEGATES "ELECTED" ON JANUARY 20 WILL
ASSEMBLE AT THE PALACIO DE CONVENCIONES (JUST DOWN THE ROAD
FROM THE COM'S RESIDENCE). THE SESSION WILL BE PRESIDED OVER
INITIALLY BY MARIA ESTHER REUS, PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL
ELECTORAL COMMISSION. REUS WILL CERTIFY THE DELEGATES. THEN
WILL COME TWO DECISIONS, SUPPOSEDLY VOTED ON BY ALL 614.
FIRST, TO CHOOSE THE PRESIDENT OF THE ASSEMBLY (CURRENTLY
RICARDO ALARCON),AS WELL AS VICE PRESIDENT AND SECRETARY OF
THE ASSEMBLY. AND THEN, TO SELECT THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE
COUNCIL OF STATE (CURRENTLY FIDEL),THE FIRST VICE PRESIDENT
(CURRENTLY RAUL),OTHER VP'S (CURRENTLY FIVE -- COMANDANTE
JUAN ALMEIDA BOSQUE, CARLOS LAGE, ESTEBAN LAZO, JOSE RAMON
MACHADO VENTURA, AND GEN ABELARDO COLOME IBARRA),AND THE
REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL (WE CURRENTLY COUNT 28 TOTAL
MEMBERS). "GRANMA" DOES NOT THEN SPECIFY, BUT CUBAN CONTACTS
TELL US THAT THE 24 FEBRUARY SESSION OF THE ASSEMBLY WILL
ALSO CONFIRM THE MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT; THERE ARE
CURRENTLY 34 MEMBERS, INCLUDING FIDEL AND RAUL. THE SUNDAY
SESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAKE UP ANY FORMAL BUSINESS OTHER
THAN THIS CONFIRMATION OF NAMES. DIPLOMATIC COLLEAGUES
REPORT ALREADY GETTING INVITES TO WITNESS SOME OF THE
SESSION. (WE AT USINT DO NOT, SURELY BECAUSE WE DO NOT HAVE
FORMAL DIPLOMATIC PRESS RELATIONS WITH CUBA.) PRESS CONTACTS
ARE HOPING PART OF THE SUNDAY SESSION WILL BE OPEN TO THEIR
PRESENCE. (WE ARE HOPING IT IS AT LEAST TELEVISED.) THEN
THEY ALL GO HOME. NO BIG DEAL, RIGHT?

WHAT WILL NOT HAPPEN ON SUNDAY: NO PARTY CHANGE, AND THAT'S
IMPORTANT


3. (S) WELL, NOT EXACTLY. AS IMPORTANT AS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
SUNDAY IS WHAT WILL NOT. THE PARTY STRUCTURE WILL NOT BE
TOUCHED FOR NOW. ALL THAT WILL BE AFFECTED ON SUNDAY IS THE
GOVERNMENT, WHEREAS THE KEY DECISION-MAKING BODY FOR NOW IS
THE CUBAN COMMUNIST PARTY (PCC). FIDEL IS THE FIRST
SECRETARY OF THAT BODY. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT IN HIS

SIPDIS
MUCH-TOUTED VERSION OF A "SHERMAN STATEMENT" OF 18 FEBRUARY,
FIDEL ONLY TALKED ABOUT HIS ROLES AS PRESIDENT OF THE COUNCIL
OF STATE AND HIS TITLE OF COMMANDER IN CHIEF. HE DID NOT
RELINQUISH HIS ROLE AS FIRST SECRETARY OF THE PCC, AND HE
REITERATED HIS TITLE AS EDITORIALIST IN CHIEF, SAYING THAT
ALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO COUNT ON HIS "WEAPON" AS WHAT ONE
LOCAL JOURNALIST CALLS "OP ED WRITER-IN-CHIEF." FIDEL HAS
NEVER REALLY CARED ABOUT THE PARTY, PREFERRING A MORE
PERSONALIST LEADERSHIP STYLE. THAT PARTLY EXPLAINS WHY THERE
HAS BEEN NO PARTY CONGRESS FOR TEN YEARS. RAUL BY CONTRAST


HAS REPEATEDLY STATED IN THE PAST TWO YEARS A NEED FOR THE
STRUCTURE OF THE PARTY. (THERE ARE CLEAR STEPS BEING TAKEN
TOWARDS HOLDING A PARTY CONGRESS, AND WE WOULD EXPECT IT IN
2008: THE "CONSTITUENT BODIES" UNDER THE PCC UMBRELLA -- THE
YOUTH ORGANIZATION, THE LABOR UNION, THE WRITERS AND ARTISTS
UNION, THE WOMEN'S ORGANIZATION -- HAVE EITHER ALREADY HELD
OR ARE PREPARING TO HOLD IN THE MONTHS AHEAD THEIR
CONGRESSES, AN EXPECTED PRE-REQUISITE FOR THE FORMAL
CONGRESS. BUT THAT IS NOT ON THE AGENDA FOR THIS COMING
SUNDAY.) AND WHEREAS FIDEL CLAIMED ON 18 FEBRUARY TO BE
RENOUNCING HIS "COMANDANTE EN JEFE" ROLE, THAT POSITION IS
NOT SUBJECT TO ELECTION. THERE ARE FIVE INDIVIDUALS IN CUBA
WHO CARRY THE TITLE OF COMANDANTE, BUT THERE HAS BEEN -- AND
CUBANS ARE CONFIDENT, WILL FOREVER BE -- ONLY ONE COMANDANTE
EN JEFE -- FIDEL. THAT JERSEY WILL BE RETIRED FOR GOOD.

WHY SUNDAY IS IMPORTANT: IN A WAY, IT'S A FIRST IN THE
CONTEXT OF A GENERATIONAL CHANGE


4. (C) SO THAT MEANS SUNDAY WILL BE ANTI-CLIMACTIC, A TEMPEST
IN A TEAPOT, OF INTEREST TO JOURNALISTS AND LEFTISTS THE
WORLD OVER BUT WITH NO CONSEQUENCE FOR THE CUBAN PEOPLE,
RIGHT? EVERYONE WE TALK TO HERE CLAIMS TO BE CYNICAL, WITH
THE RHETORICAL QUESTION: "WHAT HAS THE GOVERNMENT DONE FOR ME
LATELY?" ON THEIR LIPS, BUT EVEN THE CYNICS ARE WATCHING THIS
ONE OUT OF THE CORNER OF THEIR EYE. FOR ONE THING, NEVER
SINCE 1959 HAS THERE BEEN THE CIRCUMSTANCE OF NO FIDEL
ACTUALLY RUNNING THINGS. THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE HE WON'T BE
THERE. THUS ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS TO BE SETTLED ON 24
FEBRUARY IS WHETHER FIDEL MEANT WHAT HE SAID ON 18 FEBRUARY.
THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FIDEL WOULD ENGINEER A DRAFT, TO
STROKE HIS EGO IF NOTHING ELSE, BUT MOST BETTING -- AND OUR
BET -- IS THAT HIS WORDS MEANT SOMETHING, THAT HE REALLY DOES
PLAN TO SHIFT ROLES. THE PREDICTABLE MESSAGES OF ADULATION
AND PRAISE OF FIDEL'S 2/18 ANNOUNCEMENT -- EVERY DAY'S
NEWSPAPER BRINGS ANOTHER SLEW OF THEM -- ALL STOP SHORT OF
BEGGING HIM TO STAY ON. THE REGIME'S OWN POLLING REPORTS
ARE, WE ARE CERTAIN, BRINGING BACK WHAT WE ARE HEARING: THAT
NOBODY REALLY CARES THAT FIDEL IS GOING. AND EVEN IF FIDEL
IS STILL AROUND IN PCC AND EDITORIAL WRITER MODES, HIS ROLE
HAS CLEARLY DECLINED SINCE HIS JULY 31, 2006 "PROCLAMA".
FIDEL'S OWN STATED SENSE OF HIS ROLE REMAINS THAT OF INSPIRER
AND SAGE. WE HAVE SEEN HIM MORE AS A CHECK ON THINGS GOING
OFF THE IDEOLOGICALLY PURE, ORTHODOX TRACK. HIS ABILITY TO
EXERCISE THAT ROLE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SHIFT IN
INSTITUTIONAL TITLES.

RAUL'S CORONATION? NOT FOR SOMEONE SEEKING A MORE COLLEGIAL
STYLE OF MANAGING


5. (C) SO WILL THIS BE RAUL'S CORONATION? WE DON'T THINK SO,
NOT AS SUCH, NEITHER IN A PERSONAL SENSE NOR IN POLICY TERMS,
AND FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS. HISTORICALLY, BUT ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE JULY 31, 2006 PROCLAMA, RAUL HAS SOUGHT TO PROJECT
A DIFFERENT STYLE: MUCH MORE UNDERSTATED, MUCH LESS FLASHY
THAN HIS BROTHER FIDEL. HE HAS EVEN SAID AS MUCH PUBLICLY ON
MORE THAN ONE OCCASION IN THE PAST 19 MONTHS. THE NARCISSISM
OF FIDEL IS NOT RAUL'S STYLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WHEN IT
COMES TO THE CIRCLE OF POWER, RAUL PREFERS IT WIDER AND LESS
UNI-CENTERED THAN FIDEL. PROOF? HIS PUSHING THROUGH IN
MID-2006 THE RESTORATION OF THE PCC CENTRAL COMMITTEE
"SECRETARIAT," SOMETHING FIDEL HAD LONG ESCHEWED. RAUL
CLEARLY FEELS HE NEEDS THAT KIND OF HELP. THE COMPOSITION OF
THE SECRETARIAT ALSO POINTS TO THE MANAGEMENT PATH WE WOULD
EXPECT A RAUL-LED REGIME TO FOLLOW. LIKE A BRIDE HEADING TO
THE ALTAR, RAUL'S 12-PERSON SECRETARIAT HOLDS SOMETHING OLD
AND SOMETHING NEW, SOMETHING BORROWED... YOU GET OUR POINT.
THERE ARE OLD-TIME/OLD-THINK HARD-LINERS LIKE MACHADO VENTURA
AND ESTEBAN LAZO (AS WELL AS FIDEL HIMSELF) AND YOUNGER,
REPORTEDLY RELATIVELY MORE OPEN-MINDED FIGURES SUCH AS
CENTRAL COMMITTEE INTERNATIONAL SECRETARY FERNANDO REMIREZ DE
ESTENOZ AND TRANSPORT MINISTER JORGE SIERRA. LOOK FOR
HETEROGENEITY, NOT HOMOGENEITY.

WHEN WILL WE SEE CHANGES, IF ANY? NOT RIGHT AWAY


6. (S) OKAY THEN, SO WE WILL SEE BIG CHANGES RIGHT AWAY,
CORRECT? WELL, NOT EXACTLY. WE SEE RAUL BIDING HIS TIME,
AGAIN FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST, BECAUSE HE IS CAUTIOUS BY
NATURE, AND HAS ALWAYS BEEN, SINCE THE SIERRA MAESTRA
CAMPAIGNS OF THE LATE 1950S. SECOND, BECAUSE HIS BROTHER IS
STILL AROUND, AND RAUL FEARS WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED TO HIM
SEVERAL TIMES: GETTING HIS WRISTS SLAPPED BY FIDEL (E.G., ON
RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES). THIRD AND PROBABLY MOST

IMPORTANT, BECAUSE RAUL DOES NOT DOMINATE THE PCC OR THE GOC
LIKE FIDEL, ABLE TO IMPOSE A DECISION WITH THE FLICK OF A PEN
OR THE GLARE OF A FACE-TO-FACE MEETING. WE DO SEE
UNMISTAKEABLE SIGNS OF AN INCREASINGLY FRACTIOUS LEADERSHIP
IN CUBA. IN THE ECONOMIC FIELD, ALL-IMPORTANT GIVEN THE
INTENSE PRESSURE THE REGIME IS UNDER TO PRODUCE TANGIBLE
RESULTS FOR THE POPULATION, THE ORTHODOX CROWD (MACHADO
VENTURA, BALAGUER, LAZO, CENTRAL BANK HEAD SOBERON, AMONG
OTHERS) WANT TO STICK WITH TRIED-AND-TRUE METHODS OF CENTRAL
PLANNING AND CENTRAL CONTROL, WHILE OTHERS, REPORTEDLY
INCLUDING RAUL HIMSELF IF WE ARE TO BELIEVE HIS 26 JULY
SPEECH, RECOGNIZE THAT THE MACHINE IS IRREMEDIABLY BROKEN AND
NEEDS TO BE OVERHAULED. ON FOREIGN POLICY, THERE ARE THOSE
(A DECIDED MINORITY) WHO WANT TO STAY WITH VENEZUELA WHILE
OTHERS, TO INCLUDE -- WE BELIEVE -- RAUL HIMSELF WANT TO RELY
MORE ON OTHERS SUCH AS BRAZIL AND MEXICO. CATHOLIC CHURCH
AND DIPLOMATIC COLLEAGUES TELL US THE SPLITS EVEN EXTEND TO
AS SENSITIVE AN AREA AS HUMAN RIGHTS, WHERE THE HARD-LINERS
SAY "KEEP THE DISSIDENTS IN JAIL FOR DECADES" WHILE OTHERS
ARGUE FOR GETTING CUBA OUT FROM UNDER THE BURDEN OF A LARGE
POLITICAL PRISONER POPULATION BY RELEASING SOME, IF NOT ALL.
CARDINAL ORTEGA, WHO HAS NEGOTIATED HUMAN RIGHTS WITH THE
GOC, HAS TOLD US IN THE PAST HE SEES ALL THE POLITICAL
PRISONERS AS "FIDEL'S." WELL, SOMEONE HAD TO BE NEGOTIATING
WITH THE SPANIARDS ON THE RELEASE OF THE FOUR LAST WEEK, AND
JURISTS IN THE HUMAN RIGHTS COMMUNITY, AS WELL AS CHURCH
FIGURES, HAVE PASSED ON RUMORS OF MORE RELEASES IN THE WAKE
OF THE CURRENT VISIT OF VATICAN SECRETARY OF STATE BERTONE.
SOMEBODY IN THE GOC IS CLEARLY ARGUING FOR THE APPEARANCE OF
A DIFFERENT LINE ON HUMAN RIGHTS. THIRD, THERE ARE THE
NUMEROUS MILITARY AND FORMER MILITARY COLLEAGUES IDENTIFIED
AND GROOMED BY RAUL IN HIS MILITARY ROLE. THAT SECTOR IS
MOST OPAQUE, AND WITH RARE EXCEPTIONS, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
HANDLE ON WHERE THEY COME DOWN ON POLICY ISSUES. FROM WHAT
WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DISCERN, HOWEVER, IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE
TO CALL THE MILITARY REFORM-MINDED. AS A GROUP, THEY, LIKE
RAUL HIMSELF, FAVOR EFFICIENCY AND CONTROL, AND NOT
NECESSARILY IN THAT ORDER. THOSE UNIFORMED OFFICERS TO WHOM
RAUL HAS GIVEN BROADER ECONOMIC/BUSINESS RESPONSILITIES ARE
THEMSELVES A MIXED BAG, FROM REPORTEDLY CORRUPT (CASAS
REGUIERO) TO DRACONIAN DISCIPLINARIANS, AND THOSE TWO SCHOOLS
ARE NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE. WHAT APPEARS TO CHARACTERIZE THE
MILITARY OFFICIALS WHOSE ADVANCEMENT TO THE TOP RAUL HAS
PROMOTED IS A FIRM LOYALTY TO RAUL HIMSELF.

RAUL: TRYING TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF AN INCREASINGLY
EFFERVESCENT SITUATION


7. (C) IS LOYALTY THE ONLY THING RAUL IS LOOKING FOR? NO, IT
IS MORE THAN THAT. RAUL AND HIS CRONIES ARE IN A DIFFERENT
POSITION THAT FIDEL EVER WAS, AND FACE A BIGGER CHALLENGE
THAN ANY FACED BY THE REVOLUTION SINCE 1959. IT IS NOT THAT
THINGS WERE BETTER BEFORE WITH FIDEL RUNNING THINGS, BUT
FIDEL DOMINATED THE SCENE IN WAYS RAUL AND COMPANY CAN ONLY
DREAM OF. IT IS LIKE WITH THE QUESTION OF WHO CAN SUCCEED
FIDEL AS COMANDANTE EN JEFE. THE ANSWER IS NOBODY. THE
STATE OF THE CUBAN ECONOMY -- IN TERMS OF THE PERSONAL
ECONOMIES OF YOUR EVERYDAY CUBAN CITIZENS, NOT THE MACRO
NUMBERS BATTED AROUND BY THE REGIME PROPOGANDISTS -- HAS
NEVER BEEN LOWER. THAT IS A SUBJECTIVE JUDGMENT OF CUBANS,
BUT IT IS THE ONE THAT COUNTS. EVIDENCE AND THE RARE
RELIABLE GOVERNMENT STATISTIC POINT TO THINGS BEING SLIGHTLY
BETTER IN SOME SECTORS THAN IN THE RECENT PAST, AND CERTAINLY
SINCE THE SPECIAL PERIOD OF THE 1990S. THERE HAVE BEEN
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN URBAN TRANSPORT, AND THERE ARE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF THE CUBAN STATE PAYING FARMERS FOR PAST
PRODUCTION. CUBAN NEWSPAPERS REPORT THAT OBESITY, NOT HUNGER
AND MALNUTRITION, IS NOW THE MAIN PROBLEM OF CUBANS. THAT
DOES NOT MATTER TO THE AVERAGE CUBAN, HOWEVER. THEIR
PERCEPTION IS THAT THEIR OWN PERSONAL LIFE HAS NOT GOTTEN
BETTER, AND INCREASINGLY, THEY ARE SAYING SO OUT LOUD.
CUBANS ARE GENERALLY AWARE OF HOW MUCH BETTER LIFE OUTSIDE
CUBA IS, EITHER THROUGH RADIO MARTI OR OTHER PRESS SOURCES,
OR THROUGH CONTACT WITH FAMILY OFF THE ISLAND. REGIME
PROPAGANDA THAT CUBA IS DOING WELL IS PERCEIVED AS JUST THAT:
TALK. RAUL AND COMPANY ARE CAUGHT IN THE VICE OF A
REVOLUTION OF RISING EXPECTATIONS, AND IF CUBANS HAVE MORE
HOPE THESE DAYS, IT IS BECAUSE THEY SEE FIDEL ON HIS WAY OUT;
AND BECAUSE RAUL HAS HIMSELF SPOKEN OF THE NEED FOR THINGS TO
GET BETTER, MOST DRAMATICALLY LAST JULY 26 BUT ACROSS THE
ISLAND IN THE MONTHS SINCE THEN. IT IS NOT AN ENVIABLE
POSITION FOR ANY GOVERNMENT, ESPECIALLY ONE WITH FEW
RESOURCES AND LITTLE LEGITIMACY TO FALL BACK ON. RAUL KNOWS
HE HAS TO GET HIS SUPPORT THE OLD-FASHIONED WAY: HE HAS TO

EARN IT. NOT EASY WITH A MACHINE AS BROKEN AS HIS.

BACK TO 24 FEBRUARY: NOT YET AN ISSUE OF WHAT, BUT WHO


8. (C) SO WHERE DOES THE REGIME GO? IT TRIES TO KEEP THINGS
HANGING TOGETHER, MAKING DEALS WITH FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS AND
COMPANIES TO FILL THE POCKETS OF THE FAVORED FEW, AND MOST OF
ALL, DOING THE NECESSARY TO RETAIN POWER. THAT REQUIRES, IN
THE FIRST INSTANCE, THE RIGHT PEOPLE, NAMELY RAUL'S PEOPLE.
RAUL IS BEING CAREFUL NOT TO ALIENATE PRECIPITOUSLY FIDEL'S
CRONIES, BUT HE EVINCES NO AFFECTION FOR THEM, AND WE HAVE
HEARD RUMORS, ORIGINATING ON THE ISLAND EVEN IF FILTERED
THROUGH OFF-ISLAND COMMUNITIES, OF THE LIKES OF ALARCON,
MACAHDO VENTURA, FELIPE PEREZ ROQUE AND OTHERS ON THE WAY
OUT. RAUL'S CAUTION MAY DICTATE THAT HE ONLY UNDERTAKE SOME
SHAKE-UPS GRADUALLY, SAY, OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS, AND NOT
ALL AT ONCE. IN ANY EVENT, THAT IS WHAT SUNDAY IS ALL ABOUT.
WHAT THE OFFICIALS DO ONCE CONFIRMED OR CARRIED OVER IN
OFFICE IS ANOTHER MATTER, BUT THEY DO NOT HAVE ALL THE TIME
IN THE WORLD. ON THE CONTRARY, THEY NEED TO PRODUCE RESULTS
IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER IF THEY WANT TO HOLD OFF WHAT CARDINAL
JAIME ORTEGA FEELS ARE THE IMPATIENT MOBS. THAT ABOVE ALL
ELSE IS THE INEXORABLE PRESSURE FOR CHANGE. REGIME
PROPAGANDISTS BOAST OF IMPROVING TIES WITH OTHER COUNTRIES,
AND IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS, THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS OF MARKED
IMPROVEMENT WITH BRAZIL AND MEXICO. THAT IS USEFUL FOR THE
U.S., TO THE EXTENT IT HOLDS THE PROSPECT OF FREEING CUBA'S
HAND FROM THE UNILATERAL GRIP OF THE ERRATIC VENEZUELA.
FIDEL WAS CONTENT WITH CHAVEZ AS PRINCIPAL PARTNER; RAUL IS
CLEARLY LOOKING ELSEWHERE, AND AS MUCH AS HE CLAIMS IT IS NOT
THE CASE, HE HAS ANOTHER GOAL: A MODUS VIVENDI WITH THE
UNITED STATES. FOR SOMEONE WHO REPORTEDLY HAS ONLY EVER BEEN
IN THE UNITED STATES ONCE (IN 1960 IN HOUSTON),RAUL'S
OBSESSION WITH US IS UNUSUAL. NONETHELESS, HIS REGULAR
MENTION OF A DESIRE FOR NORMALIZED TIES WITH WASHINGTON, EVEN
IF COUCHED IN OH-SO-CUBAN PUFFING UP OF CHESTS AND
RECITATIONS OF "I DON'T NEED YOU," IS REAL.

WASHINGTON: STILL CANNOT FIGURE US OUT


9. (C) THE REGIME WOULD BE STUNNED IF IN THE WAKE OF 24
FEBRUARY IT WERE TO RECEIVE A CONGRATULATORY NOTE FROM THE
U.S. THERE IS LITTLE IT WOULD WANT MORE. RAUL AND CO. KNOW
THEY LACK LEGITIMACY. THEY CAN WHISTLE PAST THE GRAVEYARD
ALL THEY WANT, BUT THEY, UNLIKE THE LEGEND OF FIDEL, HAVE NO
STORIES WITH WHICH TO BACK UP THEIR POSITION. CERTAINLY NOT
ECONOMIC, BEYOND THE CURRENT PRICE OF NICKEL AND THE HOPES
DOWN THE ROAD OF OIL AND GAS OFF THE NORTH COAST.
DIPLOMATIC? WELL YES, TO SOME EXTENT, BUT THEY ARE SO
INSECURE THEY FRET EVERY TIME AN ISSUE ARISES IN
INTERNATIONAL CIRCLES AND THEY HAVE AN INTEREST AT STAKE.
THE UNITED STATES REMAINS CUBA'S OBSESSION, THAT OFTEN DEFIES
COMPARISONS. WITH MEXICO, FOR EXAMPLE, THE CUBANS HAVE A
FINITE (THREE) LIST OF IDENTIFIABLE ISSUES, AND APPEAR TO BE
RESOLVING THEM, ONE BY ONE, IN A METHODICAL WAY. WITH THE
U.S., THE CLASH IS MORE EXISTENTIAL, BECAUSE OF WHAT WE
REPRESENT IN THEIR HISTORY AND THEIR PRESENT. RAUL KNOWS HE
DOES NOT HAVE A VERY STRONG HAND, ESPECIALLY WITH A RESTLESS
POPULATION. THE CUBANS ARE AMAZED AT OUR PERSISTENT LOYALTY
TO THE HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY CLUSTER OF ISSUES, AS THEY
ARE BY THE COURAGE OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY
DEFENDERS ON THE ISLAND AND THE GROWING NUMBERS OF AVERAGE
CUBANS WILLING TO SPEAK OUT. HOWEVER, HELPED BY THE FLANKING
(IF UNEVEN) PRESSURE FROM EUROPEANS AND OTHERS, SOME CUBAN
OFFICIALS HAVE STARTED TO GET THE MESSAGE, AS WITNESSED BY
THE DEALS WITH THE SPANISH AND RUMORED ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE
VATICAN. 24 FEBRUARY, UNLESS FIDEL DOES A SUDDEN ABOUT-FACE
AND INSISTS ON RE-EMERGING, WILL BE RAUL'S MOST IMPORTANT
STEP TOWARDS SETTING A NEW PATH FOR CUBA. ABOVE ALL, IT WILL
PROVIDE HIM WITH A BASIS TO MOVE FORWARD. WE BELIEVE HE
WANTS TO BECAUSE HE KNOWS HE HAS TO. HOW FAR HE CAN GO WHILE
STILL RETAINING HIS CONTROL IS THE QUESTION THAT NEITHER HE
NOR WE CAN ANSWER. AS MUCH AS HE DISLIKES COMPARISONS WITH
ANY OTHER COUNTRY, HE APPEARS TO BE HEADING DOWN A GORBACHEV
PATH OF GLASNOST (MARGINAL FREEDOMS IN THE CULTURAL REALM AND
EYE-DROPPER RELEASES OF POLITICAL PRISONERS). IF HE GETS TO
START TO PUT IN THOSE PEOPLE HE WANTS ON 24 FEBRUARY, RAUL
MIGHT BE TEMPTED TO TRY A LITTLE PERESTROIKA IN THE ECONOMIC
AND MANAGEMENT AREAS. THEN HE AND HIS COHORTS BELIEVE THEY
WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE THE PRESSURE FOR CHANGE. THEY MAY BE
RIGHT, BUT WE WOULD NOT BET ON IT. CUBANS ARE RESTLESS, IF
REALISTIC PEOPLE. WHEN THEY SENSE THAT CHANGE IS IN THE
AIR, THEY WILL KEEP PRESSING FOR IT.

PARMLY