REACTIONS TO FIDEL,S RESIGNATION -- FEAR, HOPE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000167

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY (PGOV TAG ADDED)

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR ARA/CCA; ARA/PDD;

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2028
TAGS: PGOV CU
SUBJECT: REACTIONS TO FIDEL,S RESIGNATION -- FEAR, HOPE,
AND SKEPTICISM


Classified By: DCM JLWILLIAMS, REASONS 1.4 (B, D)

1.(C) Summary: Today,s announcement by Fidel Castro that he
will step down as President and Commander-in-Chief after next
Sunday's election was received calmly by the Cuban people,
who do not expect much in the way of short-term change. In
the longer-term, however, people vary considerably in their
enthusiasm for change, from those who would welcome any
alteration in their current condition, to those who fear losing
what they already have. Still others, including most declared
dissidents, point to Fidel's decision to remain at the head of the
Cuban communist party as evidence that the day,s events
signify little if any change at all.
End Summary.


2. (C) On Tuesday, February 19, in lieu of yet another
installment in the series of "reflections" by their
long-time leader, readers of Granma were greeted by a full
front-page "mensaje" from Fidel Castro in which he stated
that he would 'neither aspire to nor accept the positions of
the president of the council of state or commander-in-chief."
The announcement was received calmly by the Cuban people, who have
learned not to expect much in the way of short-term change.


3. (C) The announcement did come as a surprise, however.
While there was a noticeable build-up of Cuban state police
and security presence over the weekend in parts of Havana,
most observers attributed it to a tour de Cuba bicycle race
that was passing through town. There were no mobilizations
of reserves, no reports of civil disturbances, and no
indicators of mass migration (although high winds and choppy
seas may also have played a role in discouraging potential
rafters). On the whole, Cubans discussed the announcement in
discrete terms as they continued on with their daily lives.


4. (C) There was considerable disagreement among Cubans as to
what, if anything, the day,s events signified for their
futures, as well as the degree of enthusiasm with which they
embraced the idea of possible change. Perhaps predictably,
among the most skeptical were declared dissidents such as
Marta Beatriz Roque, Vladimiro Roca, and Jorge Luis Garcia
Perez (Antunez). As did many others, MBR pointed to
Fidel,s decision to remain at the head of the Cuban
Communist Party (CP) as evidence that the day,s events
signified that little if any change would come at all, since
article 5 of the Cuban constitution placed the CP as "the
highest leading force8 in the country. Antunez believed the
announcement presaged &(more of the same, since Raul has
blood on his hands." Lead Dama de Blanco Laura Pollan
stated that Fidel will still rule as long as he lives, no
matter what he may say or write to the contrary. Independent
journalist Jorge Olivera ventured that some moderate
improvements in the economy ) especially the agricultural
sector ) were possible, but not much else. He added that
the future will be like a faucet, they will be careful with
the flow of change to make people happy but not empowered to
demand political change.


5. (C) Others expressed a degree of hope. Independent
Librarian Roberto de Miranda said his neighbors welcomed the
news, hoping that it would bring improvements to their daily
lives and that expectations were high. A university professor
contacted by USINT stated flatly that any change would be
welcome, and that Fidel realized he had become an obstacle
for the country and that power must be passed on to others.
"With Fidel one has to recognize that he has always been a
strategist and this is part of his final strategy." Even
Antunez said the announcement represented an important moment
that should not be dismissed, and that perhaps the few
moderate elements within the ruling elite would be able to
express their views more freely, eventually pointing out that
"the King has no clothes" as a first step toward significant change.


6. (C) Cuban television did a series of person-on-the-street
interviews in which all respondents uniformly praised Fidel,
noting that "he will continue to be our leader, our commander,
and we will continue constructing socialism," and "he is the man
who has made us think and reflect," and that "nothing will change,
we will have the same love for our country and President Bush has to
know that our revolution will never end."


7. (C) One student of information science interviewed by
USINT, however, may have spoken for a silent yet significant
group who view any change with considerable trepidation.


"Here we will continue to be afraid, with or without Fidel.
We are all afraid of losing what little we have. I could
also lose my career. I hope this changes, that the changes
that come are those we all need. But I don,t want a society
like the United States. I want a society that is still
Cuban, very Cuban, but different from the one we have now."
PARMLY