COASTAL PARTIES PREPARE FOR APRIL 2009 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000305


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV ECON EC
SUBJECT: COASTAL PARTIES PREPARE FOR APRIL 2009 ELECTIONS

Classified By: Consul General Douglas Griffiths for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The announcement that national and local
elections will be held in Ecuador on April 26 has spurred
Coastal opposition parties to further their preparations to
confront President Correa's movement. The Coastal parties
are displaying unusual signs of cooperation in trying to
craft a unified approach to win important local offices, and
ensure opposition seats in the national legislature.
Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot is quietly leading informal
meetings of parties and movements, cajoling political figures
to work together. Party leaders are relatively optimistic
that economic problems and the unrealistic expectations built
up by Correa in past elections will provide the opposition
enough space to win local and legislative elections. The
opposition is still looking for what some call a
"sacrificial lamb" to oppose the charismatic Correa in the
presidential elections. End Summary.


Guayaquil Mayor Nebot Leading Opposition Efforts
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2. (C) Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot has chaired a number of
meetings of Coastal political leaders to come up with a
strategy to weaken the President's PAIS (Proud and Sovereign
Fatherland Movement) movement,s electoral juggernaut.
Buoyed by his success in defeating the government in the
referendum on the Constitution (though just barely),Nebot
has been telling leaders that if they unite behind consensus
candidates, they have a chance of defeating PAIS in key
elections, while ensuring a substantial block in the national
parliament. Nebot recently told the Consul General that the
late date for the election (April 26 vice an expected
mid-February date) is a dream scenario for the opposition.
Nebot also believes that the dramatic fall in oil revenue and
decrease in remittances will weaken the President's
popularity. Finally, Nebot insisted that Correa's
personality will work against him. With economic problems,
political scandals and the difficulty of governing, Nebot
predicts that Correa will lash out more frequently, and
eventually exhaust the electorate.


3. (C) Nebot will run as an independent candidate;
however, he remains the de facto leader of the Social
Christian Party (PSC). PSC leader Pascual del Cioppo has
repeatedly told us that he works very closely with Nebot and
follows his instructions to the letter. Del Cioppo affirms
that he has no personal political aspirations and took over
the leadership under Nebot,s urgings. In a recent meeting,
del Cioppo told the CG that his party has taken the lead on
running analyses of the best scenarios for the opposition.
While the PSC had once considered dissolving itself to form a
large, inclusive center-right party untainted by charges of
corruption and unchecked political power, new campaign limits
make such a strategy unwise. Political campaigns will now be
funded by the government with relatively small amounts of
money available depending on the size of the electorate.
(Candidates for prefect in populous provinces such as Guayas
will receive more than candidates in smaller provinces.) In
such a situation, established party brand names and the
number the party gets on the ballot are worth too much to
throw away. Del Cioppo said that the party' decision to
"lie low" and focus on new faces is successfully
rehabilitating its brand, and the party has begun polling
much more positively. Del Cioppo said that the party is
going into the elections with "no pride." Their top
priority is supporting Mayor Nebot,s re-election. In other
municipalities, they will support whichever opposition
candidate has the best poll numbers in February. They are
unlikely to run a candidate for prefect of Guayas Province;
instead, they will support a consensus opposition candidate.
Del Cioppo said that they were still analyzing the best way
to compete in legislative elections, but promised that they
would put a priority on trying to keep the opposition
together.


Center-Right Movements and Parties Fall In Behind Nebot
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4. (C) The leaders of center-right political movements are
also very involved in these negotiations. Eduardo Maruri, a
founder of the UNO movement, and a delegate to the
Constituent Assembly, said that he would sit out the
elections as a candidate, but would work strongly to support
the opposition slate. (Maruri had hoped to use his
Presidency of Ecuador' fabled Barcelona soccer team --
think of the NY Yankees in a long slump -- to propel his
political career. Despite a $10 million capital investment,
Barcelona was left out of the playoffs again, leaving
embittered fans, and Maruri' political career on ice.)
Maruri said that Mae Montana, an Afro-Ecuadorian politician
from Esmeraldas province, who won a seat at the National
Assembly on the UNO ticket, would be running for President
under a different political movement.


5. (C) Humberto Mata, President of the centrist Fuerza
Ecuador movement, told the CG that his movement would also
strongly support concerted efforts by the opposition to forge
a strategy for the April elections. Mata termed the current
PAIS dominance of the branches of government "dangerous for
democracy." Mata said that he had never seen political
party leaders more willing to cooperate with each other. He
was "cautiously optimistic" that the opposition's
determination would hold until the April elections, thanks to
Mayor Nebot's "intimidating leadership." However, he
noted that Alvaro Noboa, the billionaire leader of the PRIAN
party was so "mercurial and unpredictable" that the union
could come crashing down in the coming months.


6. (C) PRIAN leaders have been active participants in
coordination and strategy sessions among opposition
movements, including Noboa's closest advisors Slyka Sanchez
and Gloria Gallardo. However, Noboa himself has not
participated, leaving his associates feeling exposed. In
late November, Noboa told the CG that he did not feel rushed
to make any commitments or decisions as "all elections are
decided one month before the election." Nevertheless,
Constituent Assembly member Vladamir Vargas told the CG that
he would definitely run for parliament, "with Alvaro or on
another ticket." While Vargas is a native of Guayaquil, he
stated that he will run for the Province of Pichincha since
he was born there, in an attempt to strengthen PRIAN's
profile in the Sierra, or highlands of Ecuador. Sanchez told
us that cooperating was the only option for opposition
parties. After a bout with life-threatening infection, the
feisty Gallardo told the CG that she would fight "the
communist (Correa) with all the energy she had left."


7. (C) The Patriotic Society Party (PSP) led by former
President Lucio Gutierrez and his brother Gilmar has had the
most success challenging PAIS in recent elections. Observers
also report that they have been the most elusive in
conversations with other political parties. Both Guttierrez
brothers have pledged to cooperate on developing a winning
slate, but their participation in coordinating sessions has
been unconvincing. PRIAN and PSC leaders have told us that
they expect PSP to run its own slate in most elections.
However, they expected PSP to be open to joining forces in
particularly contested areas.


Some Likely Candidates
--------------


8. (C) While leaders stress that it is still early, our
contacts agree that Jaime Nebot will run for mayor of
Guayaquil, facing no candidates from major opposition
parties. (PAIS on the other hand is very focused on
identifying a strong candidate to challenge Nebot.)
Similarly, there is a strong consensus that the opposition
parties will field only one candidate to confront what is
likely to be a strong PAIS candidate for Prefect of Guayas
Province, the most important provincial elected office. At
this point Jimmy Jairala of the PRE party is the most likely
opposition candidate, but contacts agree that it will all
depend on polling and the global picture. Jairala told the
CG in November that he was polling stronger than possible
PAIS candidates, including the President,s sister Pierina
Correa, the new Minister for the Coast Nicolas Issa and
former television personality and Constituent Assembly member
Rolando Panchana. Machala Mayor Falquez (also of the PSC) is
likely to be the consensus candidate for Mayor of the
southern city, with a non PSC candidate for Prefect.
Discussions, polling and jockeying for position are still
on-going for the electoral positions in Manabi and Los Rios
provinces. PSC Vice Mayor of Portoviejo Veronica Mendoza in
Manabi Province, told pol/econoff she was approached by the
far-left Movimiento Popular Democratico (MPD) to run for
mayor. The current mayor, Patricia Briones, is PSC and
according to Mendoza will not seek reelection. Mendoza said
that she was surprised to be approached by the MPD, as her
politics tend to the center. She guessed that it might be a
result of some sort of agreement with PAIS. Complicating
matters is that some rural leaders elected as candidates of
opposition parties are aiming to run this time under the PAIS
banner, in hopes of protecting their positions. However,
Pierina Correa, the President's sister and director of PAIS
in Guayas Province, told the CG that PAIS was aiming to avoid
these 'tainted' candidates. She said that the President
has made it clear that he would rather lose some elections
than bring in corrupt old faces.


9. (C) Comment: Over the past two years, Ecuadorian
opposition parties have struggled to come up with a strategy
to confront Correa at the polls. Their strategy to work
together and focus on pocketbook issues appears to be the
best approach, though the personal nature of Ecuador's
political parties complicates matters greatly. Much of the
success of the coordinated effort will depend on how much
time and money Alvaro Noboa is willing to put into the
elections, and if he is willing to play ball with the other
parties. In addition, limits on campaign spending will
hamstring the opposition. PAIS has been especially adept at
linking its potential candidates with public work programs.
Further, the government's relentless propaganda campaigns
position the government of the "citizens, revolution" on
the side of the voter. Perhaps the opposition's greatest
hope would be a quick economic downturn. End Comment.

GRIFFITHS