NEBOT OUTDRAWS CORREA IN COMPETING GUAYAQUIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000025

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: NEBOT OUTDRAWS CORREA IN COMPETING GUAYAQUIL
MARCHES

REF: 07 GUAYAQUIL 512

Classified By: Acting Consul General Greg Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Rafael Correa and Guayaquil Mayor
Jaime Nebot recently convoked competing peaceful marches in
Ecuador's largest city, which allowed them to measure their
respective popularity. Correa's rally was highly successful,
drawing a large crowd of demonstrators that the government
bussed in from outside Guayaquil on January 19. However,
approximately twice as many Guayaquil residents took to the
streets in support of Nebot less than a week later. The
mayor's rally attracted marchers from all sectors of
Guayaquil society, indicating the city's poor and middle
class are increasingly turned off by Correa's insults and
attacks on Guayaquil institutions. Aggressively negative ads
that repeatedly encouraged Guayaquil residents to stay home
further tarnished the government's image in the coastal city.
Nebot plans to build on his success in his hometown by
marching to Montecristi again and presenting a list of
Guayaquil's demands to the Constituent Assembly. Other
opposition leaders supported him in the march, but as in the
past, the different groups cannot seem to agree on common
goals, and the alliance is flimsy. The government may be
worried by Nebot's show of strength, but it still has a
strong hand to play. END SUMMARY.

PAIS BUSSES THOUSANDS TO GUAYAQUIL FOR FIRST ANNIVERSARY
--------------


2. (C) Hoping to divert attention from protests planned by
Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot in response to perceived attacks
on the coastal city's autonomy (Reftel),the central
government organized a march in Guayaquil on January 19,
ostensibly in celebration of the completion of President
Rafael Correa's first year in office. The rally was entirely
peaceful and drew a huge crowd. Sheylan Kow, Public
Relations Officer for Guayas Governor Camilo Saman, reported
to Poloff that Correa brought all of his ministers along with
him for the event.


3. (C) Although local newspapers estimated that more than
80,000 people attended the rally, a contact in the Guayas
Transit Commission (CTG) told Poloff the actual turnout was
closer to 50,000. "The newspapers calculated the total based
on aerial photographs of the main boulevard," explained David
Baquerizo, Operational Coordinator of the CTG's Directive
Council. "They did not account for the fact that many cars
were parked on either side of the street, taking up extra
space. Our calculations were based on the number and
capacity of the buses that arrived in the city." Baquerizo
added that the majority of the marchers came in these
government-sponsored buses. "There were very few people from
Guayaquil at the march," he asserted.

NEBOT'S MARCH ONE WEEK LATER DRAWS DOUBLE THE CROWD
--------------


4. (C) Less than a week after the government's rally, Nebot
held the first in what he has promised would be a series of
pro-Guayaquil, pro-autonomy demonstrations during the months
of January and February. A massive swarm of Guayaquil
residents from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds marched down
the city's main avenue on January 24 in response to the
mayor's call to defend the city against Correa's attacks.
Like the government's march, Nebot's gathering was completely
peaceful. Ecuavisa TV reporter Ruth del Salto covered the
march from a platform high above the street and estimated to
Poloff that between 100,000 and 200,000 people participated.
Other observers confirmed her assessment that the rally was
about twice as large as the government's. Mayor Nebot later
gushed to the Consul General that the huge turnout was a sign
that "Correa cannot continue to insult and step on Guayaquil".

FOR FIRST TIME, THE POOR RALLY TO SUPPORT GUAYAQUIL MAYOR
--------------


5. (C) While most of PAIS's marchers were from out of town,
nearly all of the pro-Nebot crowd came from Guayaquil,
including many from poorer neighborhoods where Correa has
historically enjoyed high popularity. This support came even
though the event organizers appear not to have offered
financial incentives to marchers. A Consulate driver who
attended the rally was surprised to learn that participants
even had to pay for the white t-shirts that were the
unofficial march uniform. Rafael Cuesta, President of
Guayaquil's New Civic Junta (NJCG) and an event organizer,

confirmed that the city provided only some additional public
transportation. "Guayaquil's poor participated because they
are worried that they will lose the benefits and the programs
that the city and the private foundations do here. When the
president criticized the Charitable Junta (a highly popular
private NGO that provides most of the medical care that
Guayaquil's poor receive),they saw what life might be like
without autonomy," he told Poloff. Patricia de Burbano,
Managing Editor of Vistazo Magazine, agreed. "The city has a
lot of programs for the poor, including titling of squatter
properties, free books to public school students and improved
health services," she said. "People believe these are in
danger."


6. (C) Nebot's rally also drew many political moderates and
first-time marchers outraged by Correa's perceived antagonism
towards the coastal city and the heavy-handed government
response to the failed Montecristi march. Many local
Consulate staff who had never attended a political rally
before participated in the pro-Nebot march. Rodolfo Barniol,
an advisor to former president Gustavo Noboa, told Poloff
that it was also the first time he had demonstrated for a
political cause. "I was just so bothered by the clearly
centralist and controlling tendencies of this government," he
said.

PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGNS INTENSE; GOVERNMENT FIGHTS DIRTY
--------------


7. (C) During the five days between the two marches, both
sides engaged in a heated media campaign to influence
potential marchers. Both the city and the government ran
several television ads per hour in the days leading up to the
January 24 march, encouraging citizens to participate and
urging them to stay home, respectively. Minister of
Government Fernando Bustamante also publicly warned Guayaquil
residents a few days before the mayor's march that the
government had information about possible violence during the
demonstration. The government's aggressive (and in the case
of Bustamante, apparently false) propaganda left a sour taste
in the mouths of many in Guayaquil. "(Telling people to stay
home) was a very questionable use of public funds," rightwing
El Universo editorialist Gabriela Calderon told Poloff. "It
shows how worried the government was about this march."

NEBOT TO PRESS ADVANTAGE WITH ANOTHER MARCH ON MONTECRISTI
--------------


8. (C) According to New Civic Junta President Cuesta, Nebot
plans to draft a "Guayaquil mandate" ) essentially a list of
Guayaquil's demands for more autonomy ) and bring it to the
Constituent Assembly in Montecristi as part of a second
march. Although Cuesta was not able to give Poloff specific
details on what would be included in the document, he said
that most items related to decentralization of public
services. Journalist Calderon believes that Nebot will act
quickly to capitalize on the success of his rally. "I expect
him to organize the march to Montecristi in the next couple
of weeks," she said.

OPPOSITION STILL DIVIDED
--------------


9. (C) Although Guayaquil-based opposition groups came
together to support the mayor during his rally, they remain
far from united. PRIAN party boss Alvaro Noboa, who recently
lost his Constituent Assembly seat for failing to provide a
list of his financial assets, told the Consul General that he
and his wife, fellow PRIAN Assembly member Anabella Azin,
only showed up to appear in a few photos for his archives.
"When people ask me later where I was when Guayaquil needed
me, I will have evidence," he said.


10. (C) Cuesta and the NJCG fully supported the march but are
frustrated with the mayor's plans to focus only on Guayaquil.
"Nebot is too focused on issues of municipal control. We
should expand the movement to include all of Guayas
(Province)," he said. "We have the support of many of the
smaller towns." With that in mind, Cuesta said that he is
trying to enlist the support of Fuerza Ecuador's Humberto
Mata, former Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) congressman
Jimmy Jairala, and Fuerza Guayas's Roberto Gilbert. "I would
like to get their help in convincing Nebot to think more
globally," he told Poloff. "(Barcelona Soccer Club President
and A New Option (UNO) Assembly member) Eduardo Maruri has
offered to act as an intermediary." Cuesta declared that his
group would not support demands that did not extend to all of
Guayas Province, but admitted that this would not make much

of a difference. "Nebot does not necessarily need our
backing," he said.

NEBOT'S BIG WIN HAS GOVERNMENT WORRRIED
--------------


11. (C) COMMENT: Most observers felt that Nebot scored a huge
win by both convoking a larger crowd than Correa and proving
that he has the support of Guayaquil's poor, not just the
privileged. The president has repeatedly accused the mayor
of being a pawn of the wealthy elite, so the diverse crowd
gives Nebot a key weapon in the war of words. Compounding
its problems, PAIS also hurt itself tremendously with its
intensely negative advertising campaign. Many politically
moderate Guayaquil residents were disgusted by the
heavy-handedness of the government's approach and are tiring
of Correa's abrasive and insulting style. For the second
time in as many months, the Correa administration has come
off looking defensive and insecure about its ability to win
votes in Guayaquil.


12. (C) Whether the opposition is able to capitalize on its
victory and win the next round remains to be seen. Nebot's
vision for opposing Correa does not match entirely with those
of many other opposition groups, and his focus remains almost
exclusively on Guayaquil equities. Nebot has said repeatedly
that he does not want to run (again) for president, but he is
significant as the only leader of national stature currently
able to stand up to the president in a politically powerful
and highly visible way. At the same time, Correa remains
highly popular and seems to have convinced many other
municipalities, even in the coastal region, that Guayaquil's
autonomy only draws resources away from less wealthy areas.
PAIS still has the central government's resources at its
disposal and a supportive majority in the Constituent
Assembly ready to pass laws that can dilute Nebot's power.

Chapman