SKELEMANI: ZIM POWERSHARING DEAL IS DEAD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000994

SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR USAU
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2018
TAGS: PREL ZI BC
SUBJECT: SKELEMANI: ZIM POWERSHARING DEAL IS DEAD

REF: GABORONE 975

Classified By: AMBASSADOR STEPHEN J. NOLAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During an office call with Foreign Minister
Phandu Skelemani November 17, Ambassador Nolan asked for
Botswana's view on the status of the powersharing agreement
in Zimbabwe and next steps that SADC and the wider
international community should take. Skelemani declared that
"the deal is dead," and said that he and President Khama hope
to meet with South African President and SADC Chair Motlanthe
later this week to try and convince him that the powersharing
negotiations have failed and that SADC is "back to square
one" on Zimbabwe. The Foreign Minister counseled that
elevating the Zimbabwe problem to the African Union would be
the next logical step, but he had little hope that the AU
would take any useful action. He maintained that the western
friends of Zimbabwe should continue providing food
assistance, but warned that other actions may be
counterproductive. Skelemani remains concerned about hunger
in Zimbabwe, and he believes there is a strong possibility of
political violence against the MDC once the powersharing
agreement formally collapses. END SUMMARY.

"The Deal is Dead"
--------------

2. (C) During an office call with Foreign Minister Phandu
Skelemani November 17, Ambassador Nolan asked for Botswana's
view on the status of the powersharing agreement in Zimbabwe
and next steps that SADC and the wider international
community should take. Ambassador was accompanied by DCM and
Pol/Econ Chief, and Skelemani was joined by the MFA's
Director for African and Asian Affairs and Director for
American and European Affairs. The Foreign Minister was
deeply pessimistic about the prospects for powersharing in
Zimbabwe, and he opened the meeting by declaring that "the
deal is dead" even though none of the players have formally
said so. Giving a brief read-out of the November 9 summit in
Sandton, Skelemani said the South African delegation vocally
supported the proposal that ZANU-PF and MDC-T should simply
co-share the disputed Home Affairs Ministry and immediately
form a government. The Foreign Minister noted that the RSA
Defense Minister Charles Nqukula was the biggest advocate of
co-sharing within the SADC summit. He explained that only
Lesotho, Zambia, and Tanzania had sided with Botswana against
co-sharing, and admitted that the clear consensus among the
other 10 SADC members (eleven if you include Zimbabwe) was
for co-sharing the Home Affairs Ministry. Zimbabwe's
allegation that the GOB has trained MDC members to fight
against the Government of Zimbabwe were briefly raised at the
Summit. When Botswana refuted this notion as ridiculous and
invited SADC to investigate, President Mugabe spoke up to
"clarify" the charge, explaining that he had never said
Botswana was training MDC soldiers but instead mentioned some
kind of "youth symposium" from which MDC supporters have
emerged who could later "infiltrate" Zimbabwe. (Note:
Skelemani dismissed this idea again as pure fantasy on
Mugabe's part, and he seemed to have no idea what sort of
"youth symposium" Mugabe was talking about or how/why the
"infiltration" would take place. End Note.)

No African Solution Likely for this African Problem
-------------- --------------

3. (S) Minister Skelemani said that he and President Khama
hope to meet with South African President and SADC Chair
Kgalema Motlanthe later this week to try and convince him
that the powersharing negotiations have failed and that SADC
is "back to square one" on Zimbabwe. He said that elevating
the Zimbabwe problem to the African Union would be the
logical next step, but Skelamani offered little hope that the
AU would be of any assistance. He explained that SADC was
already selling the idea of co-sharing the Home Affairs
Ministry to the AU, and he doubted that the AU would take any
action that would contradict the SADC consensus position.
Furthermore, Skelemani despaired that the African Union would
see reason with regard to Zimbabwe. He complained that "half
of the AU members don't even know what democracy is about"
and said that most of them think the only problem in Zimbabwe
is hunger. He called the African Union "useless" and noted

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that many of its member states won't criticize Mugabe because
they aren't doing much better than he is. Skelemani
mentioned that Liberia was the only AU member likely to side
with Botswana and criticize the GOZ.


4. (S) Ambassador Nlan asked what the United States and
other westen friends of Zimbabwe could do to assist. The
Miister replied that th US, UK, and Europe should cntinue
to provide food to the people of Zimbabweand to engage
diplomatically behind the scenes, ut he counseled that right
now the west cannot do much else to bring pressure to bear on
Mugabe without providing him the excuse of "western
interference" to use to gain sympathy. Skelemani said that
Mugabe would find a way to twist any western actions against
him and said that Mugabe "is good at manufacturing stories
with a straight face." The Foreign Minister also mentioned
that the Russian Ambassador had called on him November 14 to
ask about next steps regarding Zimbabwe. Skelemani told the
Russian envoy that after the AU is brought in, the next step
would be the United Nations, but the Russians asked
skeptically what the UN could do. Skelemani maintained that
AU or the UN need to say that "time is up" in Zimbabwe and
call for internationally supervised elections. He also
repeated his idea from our previous meeting on Zimbabwe
(reftel) that Mugabe would quickly step down and agree to new
elections if Zimbabwe's petrol supply was cut off.


GOB Concerned About Hunger, Violence in Zimbabwe
-------------- ---

5. (C) Minister Skelemani predicted that the MDC will soon
announce publicly that the September 15 powersharing
agreement is finished, since it cannot be implemented in
practice. He worried that once the MDC formally withdraws,
the GOZ will step up arrests of opposition supporters and
engage in a campaign of political violence. In particular,
Skelemani is concerned that Morgan Tsvangirai will be
arrested almost immediately upon the failure of the
powersharing agreement, and the Minister believes that
Zimbabwe's complaints about Botswana training MDC youth will
be used as a pretext to charge Tsvangirai and other MDC
leaders with subversion. The Foreign Minister noted that
Tsvangirai told the SADC summit that at least 12 MDC members
have gone missing and they are believed to have been seized
by the government. Skelemani speculated that MDC Members of
Parliament will be targeted (either arrested or attacked) in
order to keep them out of Parliament and reduce the MDC's
presence in the legislature. He hinted that Tsvangirai might
announce the MDC's withdrawal from the powersharing agreement
from outside Zimbabwe (perhaps South Africa or Botswana) in
order to avoid arrest. Skelemani stressed that the
humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe is severe and he reported
that according to one of his sources, some parts of
Matabeleland North province are not receiving any food
deliveries. The Minister also noted that stocks of mealie
meal in Francistown and surrounding communities have been
completely bought out by visiting Zimbabweans.

Comment-- Seeking Hope Among the Hopeless
--------------

6. (C) COMMENT: Foreign Minister Skelemani was not able to
offer much hope about the future of Zimbabwe. He seems to
have no faith that within SADC or the AU there will be any
African solutions to this African problem (or perhaps any
other). It is clear that Botswana feels increasingly
isolated within SADC and the AU for its stance on Zimbabwe.
The USG and other friends of democracy must do all we can to
quietly bolster and support Botswana for its courageous
stance, and perhaps find opportunities to bring together the
few like-minded African nations (including Liberia, which has
undergone its own renaissance and transformation from
tyranny) to build alliances and search for new solutions for
Zimbabwe. For now, the mood is not optimistic in Gaborone,
while SADC slumbers. End Comment.
NOLAN