BOTSWANA: VP MERAFHE UNLOADS REGARDING ZIMBABWE

S E C R E T GABORONE 000975


SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR USAU
PARIS, LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016
TAGS: PREL MOPS PINR ZI BC
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA: VP MERAFHE UNLOADS REGARDING ZIMBABWE

REF: GABORONE 973

Classified By: AMBASSADOR STEPHEN J. NOLAN; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Botswana's Acting President Mompati Merafhe
invited representatives from the United States, United
Kingdom, Germany, and France as well as the European Union to
a meeting November 6. The Acting President briefed them on
Botswana's plans for the November 9 SADC Extraordinary Summit
in South Africa, shared his frustration at lack of progress
in the Zimbabwe negotiations, and complained that the
Government of Zimbabwe has falsely accused Botswana of
training MDC supporters to destabilize the Mugabe regime.
Neither Merafhe nor Foreign Minister Skelemani were
optimistic that any progress will be made at the November 9
summit. On November 7, the GOB issued a press release to
publicly deny that it has given military training to MDC
supporters. The GOB says that it welcomes any observers
(from Zimbabwe, SADC, or the international community) to
inspect its facilities and look for signs of the alleged
training. END SUMMARY.

Botswana's General Position on Zimbabwe
--------------

2. (C) Botswana's Acting President Mompati Merafhe summoned
the representatives from the United States, United Kingdom,
Germany, and France as well as the European Union to a
meeting at his office November 6. Merafhe (normally
Botswana's Vice President, but acting as President while
President Khama is abroad) was accompanied by Foreign
Minister Phandu Skelemani. Merafhe explained that the
purpose of the meeting was to update the Chiefs of Mission on
Zimbabwe and to solicit ideas on how we could work together
to move the situation forward.


3. (C) He emphasized that President Khama is strongly
frustrated by the lack of progress in the power-sharing
negotiations and by GOZ stonewalling and gameplaying. Khama
believes that the talks have reached an impasse and the only
way forward is to hold new, internationally supervised
elections, as he indicated in his "State of the Nation"
address November 3. Per Merafhe, the GOB realizes that this
position may be viewed as provocative and it will be an
uphill struggle to gain support for new elections, but the
Government is firm in its resolve.


4. (C) Acting President Merafhe said that for the
negotiations to be credible, Tsvangirai cannot be treated as
a "junior partner" in a coalition government, and ZANU-PF
intransigence on this point has impeded negotiations.
Merafhe complained that SADC's continued deference to Mugabe
as the "legitimate" leader of Zimbabwe despite his clear
abuse of power was hard to fathom. The Acting President also
noted that the Zimbabwe crisis continues to have negative
impacts on Botswana. He stated that the GOB has deployed
hundreds of troops along the border both to control illegal
migration and foot and mouth disease, which is said to be
"rampant" in Zimbabwe. He claimed that Zimbabweans are
responsible for rising crime in Botswana. Finally, he noted
that with more than 1000 deaths and countless people injured
or unaccounted for, Botswana has a moral responsibility to
support an outcome in Zimbabwe that reflects the true will of
the people.

"New Development": Accusations of Secret Training Program
-------------- --------------

5. (S) Acting President Merafhe told the diplomats that the
Botswana Minister of Defense attended a meeting of the SADC
Organ on Peace, Defense, and Security in Maputo November 5.
The MOD was sent to the meeting to address Zimbabwean charges
that the GOB has trained more than 2,500 "MDC cadres" since
2002 for the purpose of destabilizing the Mugabe regime. The
GOZ also alleges that Botswana continues to train MDC youth
in batches of 130. Merafhe said that this allegation was
ridiculous and "a complete fabrication." (Note: Reftel
describes reaction of FM Skelemani to these allegations and
discusses the Maputo meeting. End Note.) Merafhe said that
the GOB "categorically denies" this allegation and that if it
is raised at the November 9 Extraordinary Summit, he plans to
invite SADC to send a fact-finding team to look into the
issue. He also said that the GOZ would be free to send a
team and could "travel anywhere they wish." These
allegations are especially troubling, said Merafhe, because
Botswana and Zimbabwe have long had a Joint Permanent
Commission on Defence and Security to discuss major bilateral
issues, during which no such allegations have ever surfaced.
(Note: Merafhe said that the VOA transmitting station in
Selebi-Phikwe is sometimes raised at the bilateral
commission. End Note.) The Acting President was unsure why
Zimbabwe would choose to raise this allegation now, but he
speculated that it was a clumsy attempt to divert attention
from President Khama's call for new elections and to
intimidate Botswana. More ominously, he said that he feared
the story could be a pretext for the GOZ to "unleash a new
wave of terror on the MDC."

The Way Forward?
--------------

6. (C) Merafhe asked the diplomats about their countries'
current views of the situation and their minimum benchmarks
for noting progress in Zimbabwe. Ambassador Nolan thanked
Merafhe for Botswana's courageous stand and for their
continuing support for our VOA operation. Though the USG
supports SADC's efforts, we think it might be time to bring
the African Union into the negotiations. The Ambassador
noted that we were making this suggestion to Tanzanian
President Kikwete. He reiterated that the USG is providing
$140 million in food and other humanitarian assistance to
Zimbabwe, and that we are prepared to provide significant
additional support should the power-sharing agreement be
truly honored and MDC given a real share of power.


7. (C) The EU representative stressed that its current
humanitarian assistance will continue, but any financial
assistance package would be conditioned on evidence of real
progress. Minimal benchmarks would be an inclusive
government with credible MDC influence, progress on the rule
of law and a return of respect for human rights. He went on
to say that SADC credibility is at stake if Mugabe cannot be
persuaded to honor the agreement, and that broadening
engagement to include both the AU and UN may be necessary if
there is no progress. The German, British and French
representatives echoed these points.


8. (C) Vice President Merafhe responded that Mugabe is still
viewed as a hero by many AU members and he opined that strong
pressure from the AU is unlikely. He said that he
personally doesn't understand "one can be hero when you kill
your own people and precipitate the collapse of your country,
but these are the hard facts we are facing in Zimbabwe."


9. (C) The Acting President further noted that Mugabe had
threatened "to crush" any African leaders who oppose him, but
Botswana was not intimidated. He said he had personally
taken Mugabe to task at the summit in Egypt about the looming
catastrophe in Zimbabwe to little effect. He offered a loose
quote from Shakespeare, "Whom the gods would destroy, they
first make mad."


10. (C) When asked about prospects for success at the
November 9 summit, Foreign Minister Skelemani replied that
"the odds are against it." Merafhe quietly added that though
he considers himself an incurable optimist, "optimism has
left him" on the prospects for a positive outcome at Sunday's
summit.


NOLAN