Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08GABORONE1029
2008-11-24 04:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Gaborone
Cable title:  

BOTSWANA DEFLECTS ZIMBABWE, SEEKS SOUTH AFRICA AND

Tags:  PREL PGOV BC ZI 
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O 240453Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY GABORONE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5397
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L GABORONE 001029 


FOR AF AND AF/S; ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV BC ZI
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA DEFLECTS ZIMBABWE, SEEKS SOUTH AFRICA AND
SADC TO PLAY BALL

REF: GABORONE 994


Classified By: DCM Philip R. Drouin; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L GABORONE 001029


FOR AF AND AF/S; ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV BC ZI
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA DEFLECTS ZIMBABWE, SEEKS SOUTH AFRICA AND
SADC TO PLAY BALL

REF: GABORONE 994


Classified By: DCM Philip R. Drouin; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Botswana's frustration over the political impasse in
Zimbabwe is growing, and GOB MFA Permanent Secretary Outlule
called in Ambassador Nolan and representatives of the UK,
French, and EU Missions here late Friday afternoon November
21 for an update and to elicit our latest thinking on the way
ahead for Zimbabawe. MFA Deputy PermSec George also sat in,
as did DCM as notetaker. As a follow-on to the November 9
Extraordinary SADC Summit in Sandton, South Africa, the
Politics and Defense Organ "troika" of Swaziland, Mozambique,
and Angola had been tasked to investigate Zimbabwe's
allegation that Botswana was hosting training camps for MDC
dissidents. It's a "big lie" and a pure distraction, per
Outlule, but transparent Botswana agreed to hear out/receive
details on Zimbabwe's claim. A Zimbabwean delegation visited
Gaborone November 20 (representatives of the GOB, Mozambique,
and Angola were present, but not Swaziland),but they came
without any "evidence." Instead, Zimbabwean reps invited all
to get on their plane and return to Harare with them right
then, so they could go and see and interview individuals
there who purportedly had information on these clandestine
camps. The GOB said "forget about it," seeking instead
concrete information in writing and in advance. Again, all a
pathetic ruse in Botswana's eyes. (The UK DCM noted that
Harare is also alleging British complicity in this phantom
training.)


2. (C) The (lack of) implementation of the September 15 power
sharing agreement was also discussed, with the hang-up on the
proposed co-management of GOZ Home Affairs a non-starter for
the GOB, according to PermSec Outlule, who echoed President
Khama's and Minister Skelemani's sentiments on this (reftel).
ZANU-PF continues to try to muscle and intimidate both MDC
factions, and SADC and the international community need to
break up any ZANU-PF notion that it is supposed to be "the
senior partner" in a post-September 15 GOZ. Khama will
therefore travel to South Africa over this coming weekend
(before his official visit to London next week) to appeal to
President Motlanthe, in his capacity as SADC chair, that SADC
should request new, internationally-sanctioned elections in
Zimbabwe. Most SADC member states (and especially those with
a "liberation struggle" lineage) have kowtowed to Mugabe on
this and are opposed to a new round of voting, which they
deem as costly and unnecessary. (Outlule sought our
confirmation that Western governments would support and help
pay for new elections.) If the SADC approach fails, then the
GOB will likely ratchet it up to the AU and the UN, but
doubts it will receive a receptive audience in Addis.


3. (C) Comment: PermSec Outlule hinted that Botswana, which
has put up a strong stand on Zimbabwe but is becoming
isolated in SADC, is running out of ideas on how to crack
this tough nut. He welcomed our suggestions. While the
international community and the West can keep on or augment
sanctions, a consensus emerged that South Africa is the key
to the solution in Zimbabwe (not really news). They need to
play ball and stand up to Mugabe more forcefully, and the GOB
was encouraged that the SAG has withheld some assistance this
week. Outlule and others seemed to feel that in all our
meetings with South Africa, we need to impress upon Pretoria
that a humanitarian crisis is about to explode right next
door, with reports of sporadic and growing outbreaks of
cholera that could spread to South Africa too, fueling a new
rush of immigration and a possible xenophobic backlash in
South Africa. Not a pretty picture over the next 6-12
months, just when the SAG PR machine is pitching South Africa
as a great destination for international travelers to descend
upon to attend the 2010 World Cup. FIFA in the past has
already cast a wary eye on the specter of unrest in
neighboring Zimbabwe, and what negative impact that might
have on South Africa's hosting the games. Perhaps it is time
to raise the stakes with some hardball "football diplomacy."


4. (C) We continue to encourage the GOB to hold the course,
but it is getting lonely out here. We would welcome any
thoughts from Washington which we might be able to share with
our GOB and diplomatic counterparts in Gaborone on the tough
road, and pitch, ahead on Zimbabwe. End Comment.


NOLAN