THE NEW IWAKUNI MAYOR MUST NOW WALK A TIGHTROPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 FUKUOKA 000008

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

OSD/APSA FOR SHINN/SEDNEY/HILL/BASALLA
USFJ FOR J00/J01/J3/J4/J5

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/28/2018
TAGS: MARR PGOV PINR PREL JA
SUBJECT: THE NEW IWAKUNI MAYOR MUST NOW WALK A TIGHTROPE

REF: 07 TOKYO 5680; TOKYO 00326

CLASSIFIED BY: MARGOT CARRINGTON, PRINCIPAL OFFICER, CONSULATE
FUKUOKA, DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary: Former ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
House of Representatives member Yoshihiko Fukuda, who defeated
incumbent mayor Katsusuke Ihara by less than 2,000 votes in a
February 10 election (reftel),is a pragmatist and shrewd
politician, whose election was cheered by many involved in the
DPRI process. In a February 26 press conference, he announced
his acceptance of the move of Carrier Air Wing Five (CVW-5) to
Iwakuni, but must now walk a tightrope between allaying local
concerns over the relocation and meeting the Japanese
Government's expectations for a smooth transfer in this key
piece of the DPRI puzzle. Moreover, in the short term, he will
be expected to deliver on campaign promises of economic
revitalization for this depressed city, despite having few tools
at his disposal to accomplish that. End Summary.

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New Mayor Hits the Ground Running
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2. (C) Mayor Fukuda hit the ground running and made getting a
reinstatement of Japanese government subsidies a priority for
his administration. The subsidies had initially been held back
by the central government due to the previous mayor's
intransigence on accepting the move of CVW-5 to Iwakuni. Within
days of his inauguration, Fukuda had already gone to Tokyo to
meet with Foreign Minister Komura and Defense Minister Ishiba.
Ishiba made sure Fukuda did not go home empty handed by
promising him that the "frozen" subsidies would soon be released.

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Prides Himself on Being a "Player" in Tokyo
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3. (C) In a February 21 meeting with PO Carrington, Fukuda was
quick to display his knowledge of security issues and
credentials as a player in Tokyo, by stressing that he was well
acquainted with officers of Embassy Tokyo's Political Military
Affairs section. He also mentioned his close relationship with
former Foreign Minister Taro Aso. He talked about serving on
the security committee in the Diet and noted that he has visited
Atsugi and Sasebo bases. He added that he still hoped to visit
the US as part of a Diet delegation in the future. Finally, it
was with no small amount of pride that he mentioned being
another kind of player as well - - of softball that is. In the
first Diet vs. U.S. Embassy team softball game in 2006, Fukuda
won the Ambassador's Most Valuable Player cup, which to him was
clearly one of the highlights of his career thus far.

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A (Rare) "Koizumi Kid" with a Political Future Beyond Iwakuni?
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4. (U) Fukuda began his foray into politics by working as a
staff aide to former LDP lower house member Akira Fukida from
Yamaguchi's 1st district. He then served as an LDP assembly
member in the Iwakuni Municipal Assembly and later in the
Yamaguchi Prefectural Assembly. He was nominated by the LDP's
Yamaguchi chapter to run for the 2005 Lower House election, and
defeated the DPJ's Hideo Hiraoka as one of the many young
Koizumi Children riding on Prime Minister Koizumi's coattails
that year.


5. (C) Fukuda is slated to serve the remainder of Ihara's term
until April 2010. Although there is nothing unusual about a
Japanese male professional making an unaccompanied tour of duty,
it is telling that Fukuda's family (which includes 3 children
under age 6) will remain in Tokyo during his tour, with Fukuda
returning on weekends as his schedule allows. He appears to
have seen an opportunity to buy himself goodwill with the LDP
for taking on this challenge and will no doubt try to collect on
that debt and move back into national politics in the not too

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distant future.

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Astute Politician Who Understands All Politics Are Local
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6. (C) Fukuda is clearly mindful that the same electorate which
handed him a slim victory remains opposed to the relocation. A
Yomiuri poll taken during the campaign revealed that 47% of
Iwakuni citizens polled remained opposed to the relocation (an
Asahi exit poll on Feb. 10 revealed the same result). These
numbers represent a significant drop, however, from the 87% of
voters who had voted against the relocation in a March 2006
referendum, and the 69% who elected Mayor Ihara on a vehemently
anti-relocation platform a month later. Reportedly, concerns
about Iwakuni's economic future edged out opposition to
relocation. The city's economic debt is approximately $1
billion.


7. (C) Fukuda reacted proactively when the recent arrest of an
Okinawa-based U.S. marine suspected of rape was made public.
(The incident, had it come a day or so earlier, might well have
cost Fukuda the election.) Once in office, Fukuda promptly
spoke out against the incident and asked to see Col. O'Halloran,
the Commander of Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni. The
Deputy Commander, who received Fukuda in Col. O'Halloran's
absence, reported being favorably impressed with Fukuda, who
predictably was looking for assurances about public safety and
tightening of discipline in light of the incident. Fukuda
surprised the Deputy Commander during the meeting, however, by
also requesting that MCAS Iwakuni service members be instructed
to obey traffic rules when driving about town. Apparently, the
numerous (by the Deputy Commander's own admission after he
looked into it) traffic accidents and fender benders involving
service members are a major irritant that base officials had not
previously been aware of.

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Pledge that Noise Issue will be Addressed
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8. (U) Fukuda made some very public pledges during the election
campaign that he would deal with the noise issue and negotiate
with the Japanese government so that the burden on local
citizens is not increased significantly as a result of the CVW-5
move. The ongoing runway relocation project, which will move
the runway 1000 meters seaward, will significantly reduce those
problems. Fukuda has also argued, though, that the GOJ needs
to more thoroughly brief the local community and ensure that
there is adequate local understanding regarding the changes the
relocation will bring. Although not as well organized or
litigious as Atsugi citizen groups, there has been increasing
activism on this issue in Iwakuni, including the January
inauguration of a residential group established to "protect the
quiet surroundings of the inland sea." On Feb. 26, the group
submitted a petition to the mayor asking for a formal response
by March 12 outlining the measures being taken to address the
noise problem. This type of activism is only likely to grow as
relocation draws nearer.


9. (C) In the February 21 meeting, Fukuda mentioned his
understanding that it is customary for USFJ bases in Japan to
try to refrain from flight operations after 10:00 pm, whereas
Iwakuni allows them up until 11:00 pm. Moreover, because of the
lack of reported progress on identifying a permanent field
carrier landing practice (FCLP) site, there also appears to be
local rumors concerning the fact that MCAS Iwakuni is actually
the planned site for these exercises, rather than the alternate
site now being sought. The head of the Iwakuni Chamber of
Commerce relayed a similar message to principal officer, basing
his comments on a February 21 Chugoku Shinbun report of a
"secret agreement" dating back to 1992, which reportedly

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identified Iwakuni as a future FCLP site. Defense Bureau
officials in Iwakuni seemed to be aware of this misinformation,
but did not seem particularly anxious to set the record straight.

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Fukuda's Pragmatism Does not Reach Up Atago Mountain
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10. (C) In the mayoral campaign, Fukuda wisely was reluctant to
step into the mire that negotiations over Atago Mountain have
become. The site has been identified as the ideal location for
the additional base housing the CVW-5 move will require. It
also represents a huge financial liability for the prefectural
government that owns much of the land and is eager to sell it to
the central government for this purpose. However, Fukuda, like
Ihara before him, also sees Atago as the ideal site for a new
hospital, and would prefer that new base housing be located in
areas immediately adjacent to the base that are most directly
affected by jet noise. These areas are now completely inhabited
by Iwakuni citizens. Fukuda had few answers as to how to bring
about this massive "swap" of land and the concomitant relocation
of citizens. He did stress that it would be important for new
base housing (regardless of where it is eventually located) to
use space efficiently and not appear much larger than typical
Japanese housing. He mentioned having visited base housing at
both Atsugi and Sasebo that he considered a possible model for
how this might be done.

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Realization of New Commercial Airport is Key
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11. (C) Both the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Fukuda
mentioned that one of their top priorities is securing the $100
million needed for the building of a new civilian airport that
would share the new MCAS Iwakuni runway. Clearly, Fukuda's
"economic revitalization" plan depends on this new airport,
which locals hope will handle four domestic flights a day
between Iwakuni and Tokyo. The plan under discussion involves
the prefecture bearing two thirds of the costs and the city the
remaining third. In reality, however, both the city and
prefecture are looking to the GOJ to provide these funds and do
not seem to have any other plan in place to fund this ambitious
project. Nor does there seem to be any concrete plans to bring
about economic revitalization through means other than extending
the tin cup towards Tokyo.

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Comment:
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12. (C) The outlook for relocation has brightened considerably
with Fukuda's election. The next few months are going to be
critical for him as he tries to establish himself and ensure he
has credibility with Iwakuni citizens, the prefecture and the
central government. If the late evening flight issue is one
that MCAS Iwakuni can pledge to look into, it would hand Fukuda
a "victory" at a critical time. Moreover, it would be helpful
if information on progress towards identification of the FCLP
site were made public to counter the misinformation that seems
to be contributing to local concerns about noise. In sum, as he
walks this tightrope, all efforts should be made to throw him a
lifeline.
CARRINGTON