Hesse's Ypsilanti Could Again Raise SPD-Left Party

C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 001756

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM

SUBJECT: Hesse's Ypsilanti Could Again Raise SPD-Left Party
Cooperation

REF: Frankfurt 0698; Berlin 0265

Classified by: CG Jo Ellen Powell for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: More than four months after the Hesse state
elections of January 2008 and more than two months of a CDU minority
caretaker government, none of the political parties have been able to
find an answer to the ongoing political stalemate. Cooperation on
individual legislation in the parliament has generally still
functioned well, but coalition calculations are a driving factor for
all the parties in every vote. Our discussions with contacts in
Hesse's capital, Wiesbaden, have highlighted two scenarios most
likely to play out over the next year: a second attempt this fall by
SPD chief Andrea Ypsilanti to form a Red-Green coalition with support
from the Left Party; or, should that fail, a CDU plan to force new
elections for June 2009. END SUMMARY.

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SECOND TIME A CHARM?
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2. (C) Many political observers from both the SPD and CDU agree that
Andrea Ypsilanti will try again to form a minority government,
despite the risk of failure and the divisions it could create in the
state and national party. Juergen Walter, a leader of the state
party's moderate wing, told PolSpec that he expects Ypsilanti to use
the state party convention in September to seek a mandate to form a
minority government with the Green Party and tolerated by the Left
Party. He predicted that the convention would be marked by stark
intra-party conflict between moderates and leftists over the
direction of the party, with no guarantee that Ypsilanti will
prevail. Her close advisor Thorsten Schaefer-Guembel agrees that she
will probably try again in the fall, but told PolOff and PolSpec that
she is not likely to make a final decision until the summer holidays.


3. (SBU) The Left Party, for its part, has not made it easy for the
SPD to portray it as an acceptable partner. The party and its chair
Willi von Ooyen have taken positions well outside the mainstream in,
among other things, opposing ratification of the EU Lisbon Treaty,
refusing to welcome the USAREUR/7th Army headquarters in Wiesbaden,
and comparing the Office for Protection of the Constitution with the
East German Stasi. The party's unwillingness or inability to counter
its reputation as an extremist party may win points with its base but
greatly hampers SPD efforts at cooperation.

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OR A PATH TO A NEW ELECTION
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4. (C) If Ypsilanti is not elected Minister-President in the fall,
both CDU and SPD contacts tell us that Minister-President Koch will
use the budget process to trigger new elections, most likely in June

2009. Wolf-Dieter Adlhoch, political advisor to Koch, spelled out
this "exit strategy" to PolOff and PolSpec. Koch will submit a
budget for 2009 as late in the year as possible, meaning the issue
will not be discussed until February or March. The parties will
almost certainly not be able to agree on a new budget, particularly
as our SPD contacts say Koch will be sure to submit a budget
unpalatable to the other parties. Failure to pass a new budget would
dramatically increase the sense of urgency in parliament - the
government would go into 2009 on a stripped-down emergency budget,
only making payments required by law - and the parliament would
almost certainly have to dissolve itself in April. Since new
elections would have to be held within six weeks, this timeline would
conveniently allow the election to take place on the same day as the
European Parliamentary elections in June 2009.

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A THIRD SCENARIO
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5. (SBU) There is an outside possibility of a three-party coalition,
with the FDP and Greens joining one of the big parties. The CDU and
SPD have each made overtures to the small parties, but both Koch and
Ypsilanti are seen as polarizing figures unlikely to be able to put
together such an ideologically broad coalition. We have also heard
faint indications that some in the local SPD are considering
challenging Ypsilanti's leadership in September, but her broad
support in the party makes such a possibility unlikely.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The SPD party convention in September is shaping
up as the pivotal moment in Hesse politics. An SPD decision to try
again for a Left Party-tolerated coalition with the Greens would be
all-or-nothing: either the Minister-Presidency or severe political
damage in the event of failure. A second try at a Left
Party-supported government would be fraught with risks for the
national SPD as well, as it struggles to convince the electorate that
it will not consider any cooperation with the Left Party after the

2009 federal election.


7. (SBU) New elections in June 2009 appear to be the most likely
scenario, particularly considering the significant chance Ypsilanti
would fail even if she makes the attempt. Such a scenario would add
another election to an already crowded national calendar and put
Hesse once again in the middle of the national political scene. With
the CDU polling well ahead of the SPD, a new election is probably
Koch's best chance to revive his national standing in the CDU. END
COMMENT.


8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin.
POWELL