KWAZULU-NATAL PROVINCIAL POLITICAL CONFERENCES: ANC `UNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DURBAN 000038

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S RUSH MARBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SF
SUBJECT: KWAZULU-NATAL PROVINCIAL POLITICAL CONFERENCES: ANC `UNDER
SIEGE' AND IFP SEES AN OPENING

REF: REFS: (A) 07 DURBAN 26, (B) PRETORIA 1548, (C) PRETORIA 1459, (D) PRETORIA 1422, (E) DURBAN 30, (F) DURBAN 36

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CLASSIFIED BY: CASEY SCHMIDT, POL/ECONOFF, POL, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
Summary




1. (C) Over the last month, both the African National Congress
(ANC) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) held provincial
conferences in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) which kicked off preparations
for the 2009 general election. For the ANC, the June 20-22
conference was about consolidating party President Jacob Zuma's
victory at the December 2007 national conference. For the IFP,
the June 28-30 conference was a chance to energize the party to
take advantage of ANC mistakes/infighting and regain lost ground
in the province. In Zuma's home province, the ANC swept into
its provincial executive committee a line up that is almost
exclusively made up of pro-Zuma supporters. ANC Secretary
General Gwede Mantashe said that the ANC was 'under siege' and
focused on the difficulties that some ANC members were creating
for the party by not getting on board with the new leadership.
The IFP talks a good game but no longer has the wherewithal to
make inroads nationally or even take back KZN. End summary.



ANC 'Under Siege'




2. (C) On June 20, the African National Congress (ANC) kicked
off its provincial conference in Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal
(KZN). Consulate staff attended the opening of the event. With
several provincial conferences, regional meetings, and the
recent ANC Youth League conference descending into chaos and
even some violence, the emphasis was on unity and a calm,
orderly conference to set an example for those still to come.
The conference did proceed smoothly but it was unlikely to go
any other way. Provincial Chairperson for the last 10 years,
KZN Premier Sibusiso Ndebele, announced in January that he would
not run for Chairperson again, leaving Dr. Zweli Mkhize (former
Deputy Chairperson and Provincial Minister for Finance and
Economic Development; bio in ref a) to run and win unopposed.
Those ANC members in KZN who supported South African President
Thabo Mbeki have known for two-three years that their run was
likely to come to an end so no fighting was expected by either
side at the conference. Including Mkhize (one of Zuma's closest
confidantes),the remainder of the 25 member ANC provincial
executive is dominated by pro-Zuma supporters. Only two of the
25 are considered to be supporters of South African President
Thabo Mbeki, with many senior pro-Mbeki leaders removed from the
ANC's top body in the province.




3. (C) The ANC was determined that the conference be one that
it could point to as a model for other provincial conferences to
follow and one that would demonstrate to the broader South
African public that the party was unified. To ensure nothing
would go wrong, there was an unusually large number of senior
ANC members from outside KZN present including Mantashe, ANC
President Jacob Zuma, as well as ANC National Executive
Committee (NEC) members Jeff Radebe (also Minister of
Transport),Blade Nzimande (South African Communist Party
Secretary General),Tokyo Sexwale, and Manto Tshabalala-Msimang
(also Minister of Health).




4. (C) ANC Secretary General Mantashe's remarks were the
centerpiece of the opening session of the conference, the only
session open to conference observers. A relaxed and interesting
speaker, Mantashe held the attention of the packed hall of ANC
delegates by focusing on unity and attacks on the ANC from
inside and outside the organization. Mantashe began by urging
delegates to demonstrate how a model elective conference should
take place. He then turned inwards, arguing that some ANC
members were asserting that the party's 'decay and decline'
began in Polokwane at the December 2007 ANC national conference.
Mantashe said this was aimed at 'discrediting' Zuma's
leadership and implied that any leadership problems in the ANC
began before the new team took over the party. He accused some
ANC members of attacking others in the party and acting as if
they are 'better' than other members. Mantashe was disturbed
that these members of the ANC were predicting that the ANC would
not get a majority or would get less of a majority in the 2009
elections. Looking ahead and presaging recent developments (ref
b),Mantashe said the ANC should not focus on removing ANC
members from office but should work on forging an effective

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transition from the Mbeki to the Zuma administrations in
national government. The ANC needed to put together a team to
make that transition happen. That was why the party had pushed
for ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to be in the national
parliament and ultimately in government.




5. (C) Looking outside the organization, Mantashe said that the
party was misunderstood about its position on disbanding the
Scorpions. The issue was simply about creating a larger pool of
investigators to fight crime. It wasn't about the Scorpions
acting against ANC leaders. That said, added Mantashe, if Zuma
is charged 3 times over 8 years then they (the ANC) have an
issue. If white counter-revolutionaries get off easy on various
charges, then the ANC has an issue. Mantashe summed up saying
that the ANC had an 'issue with the unfair administration of
justice.' The ANC Secretary General also talked about the
Constitutional Court (ref c) and its accusations against Cape
Town Judge President Hlophe, arguing strongly that the
accusations had nothing to do with Hlophe and had everything to
do with Zuma. He predicted that the 'Constitutional Court is
preparing for a verdict by preparing a crisis . . .' While it
was cryptically stated, the implication was that the
Constitutional Court would rule against Zuma at some point,
probably in relation to whether or not his corruption case
should go to trial. Finally, Mantashe commented on the ANC
Youth League President Julius Malema's comments (ref d) about
dying for Zuma, saying that the ANC is told that it 'is not
enough' to declare that the statements were 'reckless.' The ANC
is told it should condemn the Youth League President which is,
according to Mantashe, a call to 'destroy' Malema before he has
had a chance to develop. Mantashe made it clear the ANC was not
prepared to do that.




6. (C) Overall, the ANC was 'under siege' and had to own up to
its problems and come up with solutions. The coming elections
would be 'hectic' and 'difficult' and the party must be unified.
In a clear reference to ongoing fights within the organization,
Mantashe said ANC members were in the 'trenches' before
Polokwane. After Polokwane, some were still in the trenches and
'we need to pull them out.' Mantashe cited and condemned four
different incidents of ANC-on-ANC violence in recent months as
examples of what could not continue to happen. Concluding,
Mantashe reminded his audience of what the Polokwane conference
was all about - 'a revolt against the movement being controlled
by business and political elites.'



IFP Sees an Opportunity




7. (C) On 28 June, President of Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP)
Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi delivered a speech to several
hundred supporters during the IFP's provincial conference in
KwaZulu-Natal (attended by Consulate staff),highlighting the
party's mission and challenges leading up to next year's
elections. Buthelezi stated that preparations for elections
during the next eight months will be critical in preventing
South Africa from slipping into a de facto 'elective
dictatorship' led by the ANC. According to Buthelezi, the ANC
has become increasingly 'arrogant' and 'reckless' because of its
hold over national and provincial government, leading to policy
decisions without regard for the views expressed by the
opposition. As one example, Buthelezi claimed that
KwaZulu-Natal's street naming policy has proceeded without
consideration for the will of the people or the IFP (ref e and
f).




8. (C) Buthelezi also stated that corruption, fraud,
maladministration, and deep party divisions within the ANC are
hampering solutions to the key problems faced by the people of
South Africa, such as worsening rural poverty, food insecurity,
HIV/AIDS, and xenophobia, despite billions of dollars at the
party's disposal. Moreover, Buthelezi attacked the ANC on its
role in the Zimbabwe crisis, claiming Mugabe has cheated his way
to victory because of the precedent set by the ANC during
Zimbabwe's 2003 election. At that time, Buthelezi alleged the
ANC sent a team of monitors to Zimbabwe and concluded the
election was free and fair despite contradictory evidence.
Buthelezi claimed that IFP has always called for tough action

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against Zimbabwe and it is now much too late for the ANC 'shout
foul.'




9. (C) According to Buthelezi, a broken national and provincial
government and a divided ANC has provided the IFP with a
historic opportunity to regain the ground lost during the 2004
election and bring multi-party democracy back to South Africa.
He admitted that the IFP has its fair share of problems and
urged party leaders to quickly sort out its internal quarrels
and sharpen policies to offer voters more concrete solutions
than the ANC's empty promises.



Comment




10. (C) If the ANC is 'under siege,' it is primarily under
siege from within. When Mantashe attacks the Constitutional
Court, or makes references to unfair charges against Zuma, or
decries violence within the ANC, he is talking about issues that
are almost entirely generated by the current split within his
own organization and/or by individuals that are ANC
members/sympathizers. At the same time, the ANC is still
attempting to deal with the fallout of the wholesale turnover of
the party's national leadership in Polokwane which are driving
similar changes at the provincial and regional levels. This is
a process that will take a considerable amount of time, only
potentially resolving itself after the general elections when
the party and government leadership are again the same
individuals. The KZN conference went smoothly because those in
the organization who have been Mbeki supporters/appointees long
ago saw the hand writing on the wall in this province.




11. (C) While the IFP is still a factor in KZN and the ANC has
left it with plenty of openings in the coming election campaign,
Buthelezi's party does not have the leadership capacity or the
funding to take advantage of those opportunities. Having had
the same President for 33 years, the entire lifespan of the
party, those who were charismatic and/or capable long ago
departed the IFP, leaving it with no one who attracts any
attention outside of the nearly 80 year old Buthelezi. At the
same time, its reputation after 10 years heading provincial
government and dozens of KZN municipalities is not good, leaving
the electorate little reason to believe that they should trust
the IFP more than the ANC. As an African-dominated party with a
significant base in a large province, the IFP is a party that
should be able to challenge the ANC here and across the country.
For all the reasons above, it won't.
YOUNG