IRISH IMMIGRATION: ECONOMIC DISTRESS LEADS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000678

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018
TAGS: SMIG PGOV PREL KHLS EI ECON
SUBJECT: IRISH IMMIGRATION: ECONOMIC DISTRESS LEADS TO
MIGRANT FLIGHT

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Classified By: PEO Chief Ted Pierce. Reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: The Irish economic slowdown will turn a net
inflow of migrants into a net outflow and will result in a
population growth decline, with Dublin possibly seeing a drop
in population. Migrants from EU countries are quite
responsive to economic conditions and appear to be leaving to
look for work elsewhere. However, their African and Asian
counterparts cannot simply pull up stakes. If recent
statements by politicians and government funding cuts are any
indication, migrants may face a less welcoming environment.
We do not expect a widespread backlash against non-Irish
nationals but, as the economy slows, social frictions may
become more commonplace. The government and other interested
parties will need to watch this issue carefully. End
Summary.

Easy Come, Easy Go
--------------


2. (U) Ireland experienced significant immigration in the
last decade as its rapid economic growth attracted thousands
of workers from other EU countries and beyond. These
migrants were a key reason for the recent success of
Ireland's economy. According to the Central Statistics
Office (CSO),there are currently 420,000 non-nationals
living and working in Ireland. As recently as 2006, net
inward migration was 72,000 people, but economic decline
throughout Ireland has caused the waves of immigrants to
subside quite rapidly. Many immigrant communities have
started to leave Ireland. The Economic and Social Research
Institute (ESRI) predicts that in 2009 Ireland will see a net
outflow of 20,000 people as non-nationals (and some Irish)
leave Ireland in search of better economic opportunities.


3. (U) Declines in immigration and increased emigration have
significant implications for Ireland. The CSO Regional
Population Projections for 2011-2026 predict that the
population of Dublin could fall by 100,000 if there is zero
net immigration -- the first drop in the capital since 1861.
Population growth in all areas in Ireland will likely
decrease as inward immigration slows and emigration
increases. That said, Conor Hand, a migration expert at the
Irish government agency Forfas, pointed out that the system
was designed to be flexible and is working just as it should
-- when times are tough people leave.


4. (U) Although detailed statistical evidence is delayed,
anecdotal evidence indicates a trend of net external
migration in the short-term. We spoke with the ESRI's Alan
Barrett, an expert in migration and migration policy, who
noted that EU migrants (mostly Poles, Latvians, and
Lithuanians) will be more likely to leave Ireland than other
immigrant groups such as those from Africa and Asia, and that
they will make up the bulk of the migrants leaving Ireland.
He said this is due to the ability of citizens from other EU
countries to travel freely within the EU and seek employment
elsewhere. Barrett conjectured that the "pull" effect from
the home country as its economy improves relative to Ireland
may be the deciding factor in many re-location decisions.


5. (U) About a quarter of Ireland's immigrants come from
Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Many work in industries that
employ significant numbers of low- to semi-skilled workers,
such as construction and service industries. This particular
demographic is very mobile and quite willing to travel
internationally looking for work. According to both Barrett
and Martin Shanahan of Forfas, young Eastern European men are
disproportionately represented in the construction industry
and it is common for them to go to a region for a few weeks
or months before moving on to another jobsite.


6. (U) Based on CSO data, these so-called "economic migrants"
are leaving Ireland in noticeable numbers. A large portion
of Eastern European immigrants are married but separated from
their spouses for long periods of time while pursuing work in
different countries. Activity at Polish-owned businesses
provides additional evidence that the Eastern European
community is leaving. In a recent presentation, Jim Power,
chief economist of financial group Friends First, noted that
revenues of Polish food shops, bars, and other related
businesses have plummeted in recent months.


7. (U) While the "push" of the economic slowdown in Ireland
is influencing migrants' decisions to leave or stay, the
"pull" of other areas of the EU is a key determinant as well.
Unemployment is climbing in Ireland and, although the global
downturn is felt everywhere, the economies of EU countries
that have recently supplied migrants to Ireland are generally
doing better than the Irish economy. For example, the number
of jobs available in Poland has increased by more than 10

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percent since 2005 and the economy grew by 6.5 percent last
year, according to Barrett. Latvia and Lithuania both
experienced significant increases in GDP in 2007. Such
growth creates attractive options for non-Irish nationals
feeling the pressure from the Irish economic slump.


8. (C) Immigrants from the EU are not tied to Ireland because
of their ability to work anywhere in the EU. The same cannot
be said for other migrant groups here. Many African and
Asian immigrants will be forced to stay in Ireland due to
their immigration status or because there is no economic
"pull" from their countries of origin. According to
Jacqueline Healey of the Migrant Rights Center, some Asian
migrants paid large sums of money to enter Ireland under
suspect student visa schemes. She continued that the
cultural habits of this migrant community make it unlikely
for them to seek assistance or leave if they feel exploited.
Based on the size of the Chinese community in Ireland, Edel
McGinley of the Migrant Rights Center notes that they are
underrepresented in claims of labor exploitation. Similarly,
African immigrants often gain residency through asylum or by
parenting an Irish born child, making it unlikely that they
will choose to leave.

Changing Attitudes
--------------


9. (C) Further, Irish non-nationals are beginning to
experience problems other than diminishing economic
opportunity. According to Phillip Watts, the director of the
National Consultative Committee on Racism and
Interculturalism (NCCRI),a shift in public attitudes towards
non-nationals is creating new obstacles. He added that the
need for foreign laborers during the economic growth of the
last decade fueled general public tolerance for immigration
but recent assimilation debates and statements from prominent
politicians indicate that this tolerance may be declining.


10. (C) In September 2008, Leo Varadkar of the main
opposition party Fine Gael suggested paying out-of-work
immigrants to leave the country. This came one month after
Fine Gael's education spokesman Brian Hayes suggested
separating immigrant children with poor English skills from
regular classes. While these suggestions were met with
strong public criticism, they show that Irish politicians are
faced with pressure to deal with assimilation and
immigration-related problems that are magnified due to
economic problems.


11. (C) On top of this, the economic slowdown has forced the
Irish government to make spending cuts, which have hit
particularly hard the non-profit organizations and government
offices that assist with cultural integration and combat
racism. Most prominently, funding for NCCRI and the National
Action Plan Against Racism (NPAR) was completely eliminated
from next year's budget. The work of these organizations
will now fall to government agencies that are themselves
working with reduced financial resources. The budget for the
Office of the Ministry of Integration, which is set to
inherit the work of the NCCRI and NPAR, was slashed by 30%
this year. NCCRI's Watts calls such cuts "an assault on the
public sector" and feels that they institutionalize "a sense
that minorities are no longer wanted due to the downturn."


12. (U) The Minister for Integration Conor Lenihan disagreed
with this assertion and stated that the office of the
Minister for Integration is taking a more direct approach
towards integration issues. He noted the creation of a new
body called the Ministerial Council for Integration, which
will liaise with migrant communities in Ireland directly,
rather than going through NGOs.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) Everyone we spoke to agreed that Ireland will
experience net outward migration during the economic
downturn. In part, this is good news because the
unemployment problem will not be as bad as it otherwise would
be and because there will be less pressure on
government-funded social support schemes. The bad news is
that, while the Irish themselves have a history of migration
that may make them more sympathetic to their new neighbors, a
smaller economic pie may lead to social frictions that this
country is not used to. We do not expect any widespread
backlash against non-Irish nationals, but it will be an issue
that the government, communities, and NGOs will need to watch
carefully.
FOLEY