Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DUBLIN368
2008-06-18 15:49:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Dublin
Cable title:  

IRISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS IRELAND'S FUTURE LIES WITH

Tags:  PREL PGOV EUN EI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2505
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0368/01 1701549
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181549Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9277
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000368 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: IRISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS IRELAND'S FUTURE LIES WITH
EUROPE

REF: DUBLIN 363 AND PREVIOUS

-------
Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000368

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: IRISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS IRELAND'S FUTURE LIES WITH
EUROPE

REF: DUBLIN 363 AND PREVIOUS

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. Following the June 12 'No' vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Prime
Minister (Taoiseach) Cowen addressed the Dail (Lower house of
Parliament) on June 18, saying that the Government accepted the
verdict of the people. Nonetheless, Cowen noted that Ireland's
place in the international arena had been realized through its
membership in the EU and that the Irish people have been largely
comfortable with the EU's overall direction. He declared that it
will take time to fully understand the significance of the
referendum, and that he did not think there was a clear or obvious
set of conclusions that could immediately be drawn. On June 19,
Cowen will travel to Brussels where he will attend the European
Council with the Heads of Government of other EU member states. His
message to the Council will be clear and unambiguous: "My view
remains that Ireland's future is bound with Europe's." End
summary.

--------------
The Taoiseach Speaks
--------------


2. Following the surprising defeat in Ireland of the Lisbon Treaty
in a referendum on June 12, Taoiseach Brian Cowen spoke to the Dail
on June 18 during a specially convened session to debate the
referendum result. He warned that Ireland faced a period of
uncertainty in the wake of the 'No' vote, and announced that he
would not be calling on other EU states to scrap their ratification
of the Treaty, saying that each country which has not yet ratified
the Treaty should be allowed to do so. He declared that he did not
believe the result constituted a rejection of Europe or of the need
to change how the EU works. Nonetheless, he said the Government
fully accepted the verdict of the people and that the "will of the
people was sovereign in our democracy." He acknowledged that it was
now up to the Government to "manage the political situation that has
developed, both at home and internationally."


3. In his assessment of the referendum result, Cowen insisted it
was too early to understand fully the significance of the
referendum. He said the debate on the Treaty saw many disparate
views - and in some cases contradictory positions - put forward by
those advocating a rejection of the Treaty, which made it
"particularly difficult to analyze the key messages underlying the

outcome of the referendum."


4. Cowen went on to say that Ireland's place in the international
arena had been realized through its membership of the EU over the
past 35 years, and that throughout that time, the people of Ireland
had been largely comfortable with the overall direction of the EU as
it responded to regional and international priorities and
developments. He disparaged the view that it would be possible for
Ireland to exist entirely according to its own rules, yet shape the
world around it, declaring that this was not the Government's view.



5. Cowen welcomed the "initial message of solidarity that was
apparent at the meeting of the General Affairs and External
Relations Council [meeting] yesterday," (reftel) and said he would
reiterate this at the European Council meeting on June 19. He
emphasized, "I also will take the opportunity to restate to the
Council my views that the vote does not mean Ireland is turning away
from the EU or that it implies a desire to stand aside from
engagement with our EU partners."

--------------
More on What Went Wrong for the Yeas
--------------


6. During Cowen's speech to the Dail, he identified certain factors
he felt buttressed the 'No' vote. The format of the Treaty, he
said, became a major frustration for the electorate, because it was
difficult to understand. He also noted the unease expressed that
for five out of every fifteen years there would not be an Irish EU
Commissioner. He stated that arguments were repeatedly advanced
about a threat to Ireland's right to maintain its own tax system and
tax rates, even though the Lisbon Treaty provided for a continuation
of the legal arrangements that currently apply under existing
Treaties.


7. Cowen remarked that many people were reportedly uneasy about a
perceived risk that Europe would develop a common defense policy,
requiring Ireland to abandon its military neutrality. This was
compounded, he said, by concern that, at some hypothetical future
date, this provision could give rise to a European army and an
attempt to project European interests by military force, to which
Ireland would be obliged to contribute - contrary to Ireland's
traditions.


DUBLIN 00000368 002 OF 002



8. Concerns were expressed regarding abortion, he stated, despite
the specific assurances in terms of Ireland's legal arrangements in
this regard. Concerns also arose, he said, about the possibility of
a legal regime that would require the commercialization of public
services, and introduce requirements to convert what have been
regarded as essential public services into market opportunities.


9. Cowen noted the deep unease within the Irish farming community
regarding the current strategy being adopted in negotiations at the
World Trade Organization as a factor in the referendum's defeat. He
identified other, more generalized anxieties, such as the current
tightening internationally of economic conditions and the associated
rising unemployment and inflation figures.


10. He declared that the core message - the need of the EU to
function more efficiently, more democratically and more effectively
in the international arena - did not sufficiently register with the
public. In contrast, he mused, many voters seemed more comfortable
citing examples where they felt the EU was not sufficiently in touch
with concerns and needs of people at local level.

--------------
Opposition Leaders Speak
--------------


11. Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny stated in the Dail on June 18 that
several of the 'No' campaign slogans were based on lies or
distortions and were repeatedly advanced despite being discredited
by independent sources. "This was done with the clear intent to
confuse people and create doubts in their minds," Kenny said.
Nonetheless, he alleged that the Government's long delay in setting
a date for the referendum created a vacuum in which false
information was disseminated.


12. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore acknowledged that the Treaty was
not an easy document to communicate. "The absence of a unified
theme, that could be related to the everyday lives of our people,
meant that from day one, we were explaining. And in politics, when
you're explaining, you're losing," he said.


13. Sinn Fein's Dail leader Caoimhghin O Caolain, however, declared
that the vote was a "positive assertion" by the Irish electorate of
their power to decide vital national issues, saying, "It was a vote
about what type of EU we want to be part of developing. Will it be
an EU of political elites and bureaucrats? Or will it be a
democratic Europe of the people?"

--------------
Comment
--------------


14. On June 19, the Taoiseach will travel to Brussels where he will
outline the Irish Government's view of the referendum to the EU
summit. While there has been speculation that the EU Presidency
might offer Ireland concessions or opt-outs from core EU policies if
it would help the Government win a new referendum on the Lisbon
Treaty, Cowen will not be going hat-in-hand. Rather, as he told the
Dail in his remarkable speech, he will tell the Council, "My view
remains that Ireland's future is bound with Europe's."

FAUCHER