LISBON TREATY POLLS SEND MIXED MESSAGES, BUT EDGE STILL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000334

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: LISBON TREATY POLLS SEND MIXED MESSAGES, BUT EDGE STILL
LIES WITH THE YEAS

REF: (A) DUBLIN 324 (B) DUBLIN 310 (C) DUBLIN 282 AND PREVIOUS

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Summary
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1. (SBU) The 'Yes' side in the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign,
scheduled for June 12, still appears to have an edge, despite gains
by the 'No' side in recent polls. Political party leaders remain
quietly confident that the 'Yes' vote will gather momentum in the
final days of the campaign. Voter turnout continues to be regarded
as the single most crucial factor on referendum day. We continue to
agree with political analysts who say that when the time comes to
cast their votes, the majority of Irish voters will opt for the
advantages of continued close ties to Europe. End summary.

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The Polls
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2. (U) According to the final tracking poll of the campaign,
published on June 8 in the Irish Sunday Business Post, support for
the Lisbon Treaty now lies at 42 percent among those entitled to
vote, an increase of one point since the last Sunday Business Post
poll published on May 25 (Ref C),while the 'No' vote totals 39
percent, an increase of 6 points. However, among voters who say
they are absolutely certain to vote, 'Yes' leads by 46 to 37
percent, with 17 per cent still undecided. Polling analysts say
that the increase in "No" votes is mostly among voters who are
uncertain whether they will turn out. They note that support for
the Treaty has increased markedly among Fine Gael and Labour Party
members.


3. (U) At odds with the Sunday Business Post poll, the Irish Times
released a poll on June 6 that had 'Yes' at 30 percent (down 5
points) and 'No' at 35 percent (up 17 points) since the last Irish
Times poll three weeks previously.

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The Campaign
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4. (U) In response to the negative Irish Times poll, the leaders of
the three main political parties held a joint press conference on
June 9 calling on the voters to put aside party differences and
unite to protect Ireland's position within the European Union by
voting 'Yes in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. Taoiseach Brian Cowen
was joined by opposition leaders Enda Kenny of Fine Gael and Eamon
Gilmore of Labour. Calling on voters to do their "patriotic" duty,
and stating, "There are issues where we stand together in the
overall national interest and beyond partisan party politics," Cowen
noted that the three parties represented 80 per cent of the
electorate. Rejection of the Treaty, he said, would leave the
European Union - and Ireland - facing an "uncertain future." He
insisted that all of Ireland's concerns on issues such as taxation,
neutrality, and workers rights were "copperfastened" in the Treaty.


5. (U) Kenny said that he was standing shoulder-to-shoulder with
Cowen and Gilmore to "send out a strong, coherent message" to voters
that the Treaty was good for Ireland's future prosperity. He went
on to decry what he called the "downright lies" being spread by
anti-treaty campaigners, warning that claims that Ireland would face
no consequences if it rejected Lisbon were "irresponsible and
wrong." Gilmore urged his supporters to resist "taking a partisan
view," and also criticized the "No" campaign positions, saying that
none of their arguments "stood up to scrutiny." He went on to sound
a note of warning, saying, "If the Treaty is rejected, we do not
know what a different deal would yield for Ireland, or what our
future in Europe would be."


6. (SBU) Over the weekend, the party leaders were out in full
force, campaigning heavily for the Treaty across the country. A
contact in the EU Division of the Department of Foreign Affairs told
POLOFF on June 9 that party leaders are not disheartened by the
polls. Rather, she said, the leaders are quietly confident the
'Yes' vote is gaining momentum.


7. (SBU) The 'No' campaign has been heartened by the poll results,
which have been attributed, in part, to a constant refrain from the
'No' campaigners that a stronger EU will mean a weaker Ireland. The
specters of EU taxation, conscription into an EU army, reduction of
agricultural supports, and erosion of workers' rights have been
effectively (if dishonestly according to 'Yes' leaders) portrayed by
the 'No' campaign as the consequences of voting 'Yes.' There is
also a view that some Irish are equating stronger links with the EU
with stronger links to Ireland's former colonial ruler Great
Britain, a connection that is anathema to some in Ireland.


8. (U) Political analysts of all stripes continue to stress that
voter turnout remains the single most crucial factor in the
referendum. A high turnout is expected to produce a positive
outcome, while a low turnout is likely to doom the Treaty. Both
sides are redoubling their efforts to turn out their supporters.
Appeals to remaining undecided voters are reaching a crescendo.


9. (U) Though the referendum takes place on Thursday, June 12,
under Irish law a media black-out goes into effect at midnight on
Tuesday, June 10. There will be no press, radio, or television
coverage of the referendum on Wednesday or on voting day.
Nonetheless, individual campaigners are allowed to continue their
efforts, right up until the closure of the polls at 10:00 PM the
evening of June 12. Results of the vote will start to be known on
Friday morning.


10. (U) Meanwhile, islanders on five islands off the Donegal coast
will be the first to cast their votes in the referendum, with 745
people entitled to vote on June 9. Traditionally, the islanders
have voted early in case bad weather delayed the ballot boxes from
being brought back to the mainland by ship (notwithstanding the
modern invention of helicopters). People living off the Mayo and
Galway coasts will vote on June 11, while those on the Cork islands
will vote with the rest of the county on June 12.

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Comment
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11. (SBU) Although the findings of the recent polls are somewhat
ambiguous, it's fair to say that the 'No' campaign seems to have
picked up steam - a sudden surge that is somewhat inexplicable to
seasoned political observers. Nonetheless, analysts point out that
the polls in the final days of the May 2007 General Election
indicated that support for Fianna Fail had fallen to a dangerously
low level. Nonetheless, Fianna Fail won the election handily. The
poll results have energized both sides in the final days of the
campaign as contenders fight for the only poll that really matters -
the poll on referendum day. We continue to agree with political
analysts who say that when the time comes to cast their votes, the
majority of Irish voters will opt for the advantages of continued
close ties to Europe.

FOLEY