LISBON TREATY 'YES' CAMPAIGN RECEIVES TIMELY BOOSTS

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000324

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: LISBON TREATY 'YES' CAMPAIGN RECEIVES TIMELY BOOSTS

REF: DUBLIN 310 AND PREVIOUS


1. Summary: With just a week to go before the June 12 referendum
on the Lisbon Treaty, the 'Yes' campaign has received a number of
timely boosts. Virtually all important political, employer, labor,
and farmer organizations in Ireland have now recommended a 'Yes'
vote. While there will continue to be considerable rhetoric from
the 'No' camp over the next few days, it's hard to see how the
Lisbon Treaty referendum can now be defeated. End summary.


2. On June 3, The Irish Farmers Association (IFA) announced they
were urging their 85,000 members and their families to vote in favor
of the treaty. The decision of the IFA to call for a 'Yes' vote,
according to IFA President Padraig Walshe, came after Taoiseach
(Prime Minister) Brian Cowen gave a commitment that GOI would veto
EU agreement to the current WTO talks if the deal does
satisfactorily protect Irish interests in the agriculture sector.
The IFA have said that without that commitment from Cowen, they
would have recommended a 'No' vote. (Note: Cowen subsequently
declared that there has been no change in the Government's position,
reiterating that the Government of Ireland will not sign on to a WTO
deal that is unacceptable to Irish farmers. End note.) On June 1,
the smaller farming organization the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers'
Association (ICMSA) backed the Treaty after Cowen gave an assurance
that the Government would not accept a WTO deal that was
"unbalanced."


3. In a separate development on June 4, the Referendum Commission
(an independent body with a mandate to explain the referendum
proposals, promote public awareness of the referendum, and encourage
the electorate to vote at the poll) clarified a number of aspects of
the Lisbon Treaty, which it says have led to confusion among the
public. The Commission reiterated the Government's view that
Ireland would retain a veto on any future WTO deal. The Commission
also clarified how qualified majority voting would work under the
Treaty, areas in which the EU can act, and changes from unanimity to
qualified majority voting. It stated that the Treaty would not
affect Ireland's constitutional position on abortion.


4. On June 4, in a show of unity, the three main political parties
in the Irish Parliament came together in a joint press conference to
emphasize the importance of a 'Yes' vote on the Lisbon Treaty.
Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin (who heads the Fianna
Fail campaign),Fine Gael campaign director and Dublin MEP Gay
Mitchell, and Labour Party director of elections Joe Costello urged
the electorate to vote in favor of the Treaty. The political
leaders committed their parties to a coordinated campaign effort in
order to maximize their effectiveness and ensure the largest
possible 'Yes' turnout on election day, June 12.


5. Comment: All verdicts have been rendered, except that of the
voters. Virtually every important national political party,
employers' group, labor union, and farmers' association has
recommended a 'Yes' vote. While there will continue to be
considerable rhetoric from the 'No' camp over the next few days,
it's hard to see how the Lisbon Treaty referendum can now be
defeated.

FAUCHER