SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL LEAHY TO IRELAND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 000289

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SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL LEAHY TO IRELAND

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1. (U) CODEL Leahy will arrive against a backdrop of a new
Irish Government led by Prime Minister Brian Cowen, the
continuing successful peace process in Northern Ireland, a
slowing, but still world-class economic growth -- the "Celtic
Tiger" -- and an Ireland that is increasingly engaged in
foreign affairs and global issues through the European Union
and the United Nations. An international meeting to
negotiate a ban on cluster munitions -- the Oslo Process --
will be underway.

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Domestic Politics
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2. (U) Ireland's May 2007 general election brought Fianna
Fail, led by Prime Minister (also known as the Taoiseach,
TEE-SHUCK) Bertie Ahern, into a third successive coalition
government; this time with the Green Party and the
Progressive Democrats as partners. On April 2, 2008, Ahern
caught Ireland by surprise by announcing his resignation,
effective May 6. Ahern stated that he was stepping aside
because the attention paid to the long-standing Irish Mahon
Tribunal investigations into his personal finances was
becoming a distraction from the more important work of
governing. He nonetheless emotionally reiterated that he
never took any "corrupt payments" and that his resignation
was a personal decision not driven by the Tribunal
proceedings. At the invitation of Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
Ahern addressed a Joint Session of Congress on April 30, one
of his last actions as Prime Minister.


3. (SBU) Ahern's heir designate, former Fianna Fail Deputy
Party Leader and Finance Minister Brian Cowen, replaced Ahern
as Prime Minister on May 7, having previously been selected
as the head of Fianna Fail party. Previous to holding the
Finance Minister portfolio, Cowen was Foreign Minister from
January 2004 through September 2004. On May 8, the entire
Irish Government was reinstated, following a Cabinet shake-up
by Cowen. While Cowen made more Cabinet changes than
expected, he largely re-shuffled Cabinet Ministries (rather
than moving Ministers out),positioning his most trusted
colleagues close to him. We do not expect any change in
U.S.-Irish bilateral relations under Cowen's leadership


4. (SBU) Looming large on the political horizon is a
national referendum on June 12 on whether to endorse the EU
Lisbon Treaty. Ireland is the only EU state holding such a
referendum, which will be viewed by many as a measure of
Cowen and Fianna Fail's political strength as Cowen prepares
to lead Fianna Fail into local elections and the European
Parliament elections in June 2009. In terms of immediate
U.S. interests, the Irish Government remains committed to
facilitate U.S. military transits at Shannon and Dublin
Airports, despite opposition from some sources to U.S.
efforts in the Gulf region and public suspicion by some that
Irish airports have been used for terrorist renditions.
Ireland is also participating enthusiastically in
negotiations for the establishment of full pre-clearance
facilities in Ireland for both commercial and general
aviation flights to the U.S. Most observers consider
approval of the Treaty more likely then not.


5. (SBU) In terms of immediate U.S. interests, the Irish
Government remains committed to facilitate U.S. military
transits at Shannon and Dublin Airports, despite opposition
from some sources to U.S. efforts in the Gulf region and
public suspicion by some that Irish airports have been used
for terrorist-related renditions. In 2007, over 250,000 U.S.
troops transited Ireland to and from Iraq and Afghanistan.
In a related matter, Ireland is also participating
enthusiastically in negotiations for the establishment of
full pre-clearance facilities in Ireland for both commercial
and general aviation flights to the U.S., expanding on
current DHS/CBP pre-inspection processes at both airports.


6. (U) Long a vital element in the U.S.-Irish relationship,
emigration has declined significantly with Ireland's economic
boom in the 1990s and 2000s. For the first time in its
modern history, Ireland is experiencing high levels of inward
migration from mostly Eastern European, a phenomenon with
political, economic and social implications.

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Sustained Economic Success
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7. (SBU) Solid economic growth (4.2 percent through 3Q 2007)
generated 78,000 new Irish jobs for the year ending in May
2007 and yielded one of the EU's lowest unemployment rates of
4.5 percent. The foundation of Ireland's Celtic Tiger
transformation has been low corporate tax rates, industrial

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peace, pro-investment policies, fiscal responsibility, and
effective use of EU support funds. These factors have led
over 600 U.S. firms to establish operations in Ireland; the
stock of U.S. investment in the country is, in fact,
significantly more than the U.S. combined total in the BRIC
countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). With plentiful
jobs, Ireland has also become a magnet for inward EU
immigration, attracting over 100,000 new arrivals since the
accession of ten new EU Member States in 2004, though the
rate of inward EU migration has recently slowed. Economic
success has also made Ireland a role model for new EU members
and a more confident diplomatic go-between for the United
States and the EU, as personified by the EU Ambassador to the
United States, former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton.
Nonetheless, as in the U.S., Ireland is experiencing slower
growth, driven by a slowdown in the housing market,
tightening credit, and inadequate infrastructure that has not
kept pace with the growth of the Celtic Tiger.

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Northern Ireland
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8. (SBU) Following a series of historic decisions -
including the St. Andrews Agreement in October 2006, the
January 2007 Sinn Fein decision to endorse policing and
justice, and the spring 2007 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
decision to share power with Sinn Fein - the Northern Ireland
Assembly was restored in May 2007. Since then, North-South
institutions, such as the North-South Ministerial Council and
InterTradeIreland, are up and running. However, the Irish
Government continues to press for the devolution of the
powers of policing and justice, which remain under the direct
control of the British Government.


9. (SBU) For years, the USG ) including Presidents Clinton
and Bush ) have strongly supported the Northern Ireland
peace process. The USG has consistently taken the position
that the devolution of policing and justice is an important
and integral part of the process. Current USG initiatives in
support of the peace process focus on economic growth and
community reconciliation in the North. In May 2008, the USG
supported a very successful investment conference in Northern
Ireland designed to attract American investment. Headlined
by a Presidential delegation including Mayor of New York
Michael Bloomberg, the conference attracted over 90 American
companies.

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Global and Regional Efforts
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10. (SBU) The U.S. and Ireland have worked closely and
effectively on issues of shared concern mostly through
Ireland's participation in multilateral organizations such as
the UN and the EU. For example, Ireland leads the EU mission
in Chad. It also recently resettled Cuban refugees
sheltering at Guantanamo. Ireland's military neutrality,
however, remains an important cornerstone of its foreign
policy, and will need to be considered when proposing
bilateral initiatives.


11. (SBU) Cluster Munitions. Ireland is a founding member
of the Oslo Process, which seeks to ban cluster munitions.
Former Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern (now Minister for
Justice),who witnessed the impact of unexploded ordinance on
civilians in Lebanon following the Israeli incursion in July
2006, launched these efforts. Ireland remains convinced that
the May 19-30 Dublin Conference will produce a final Cluster
Munitions Convention, ready for signature in Oslo in December

2008. "Interoperability" and "definitions" constitute the
crux of the Conference negotiations according to the Irish.
Ireland plans to work to expand the language of the draft
conventions to diminish the chance of unintended
consequences. Ireland will also seek to achieve compromises
in the language of the text so as to not disrupt critical
ongoing and future peacekeeping collaboration and existing
alliances.


12. (SBU) The Dublin Diplomatic Conference on Cluster
Munitions will be in session from May 19-30 (during your
visit). The United States is not participating in this
conference. The United States opposes a full ban, due to the
fact that cluster munitions are integral to our force
structure. Like the states participating in the Oslo
Process, the U.S. wants to minimize the humanitarian impact
of all explosive remnants of war, including unexploded
cluster munitions. However, in our experience,
weapons-related restrictions work best if applied
universally. Only the Convention on Conventional Weapons
(CCW),which operates by consensus and included all major

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users and producers of cluster munitions, can achieve such
universality while balancing humanitarian concerns with
military utility. Thus far, the CCW negotiations have
achieved some positive results. The next session is in July.


13. (SBU) The United States is the global leader in taking
action to minimize the humanitarian harm caused by cluster
munitions and other explosive remnants of war. The United
States has allocated approximately $45 million to clear
cluster munitions in nine states; this figure is part of over
$1.2 billion the U.S. has cumulatively contributed to
humanitarian mine action and clearance of other explosive
remnants of war across the globe. To lessen the impact of
cluster munitions on civilians, the Department of Defense has
reviewed rules of engagement, conducted a munitions
reliability study, retrofitted some of its cluster munitions
stocks, currently uses strict targeting procedures, and
continues to develop and field more reliable systems.
Consistent with Protocol V on "Explosive Remnants of War" of
the CCW, the U.S. has provided strike data to assist
humanitarian organizations in clearance activities and
improved our information sharing processes. Since 2001, the
Department of Defense policy has been that new types of
munitions will have a 99 percent or better functioning rate
in testing. There is an on going review of cluster munitions
policy, which will make further improvements to the
reliability of cluster munitions in the U.S. arsenal.


14. (SBU) Iraq. The USG appreciates Ireland's steadfast
support in permitting U.S. military transits at Shannon and
Dublin Airports (over one million troops since 2003; 262,000
in 2007) which backstop U.S. actions in the Gulf region,
despite the unpopularity of this policy domestically.
Ireland has also made a commitment of over three million
euros to the EU's reconstruction efforts in Iraq.


15. (SBU) Immigration. The Irish Government continues to
consult and lobby with Congress and Irish-American groups on
behalf of Irish residing illegally in the U.S., variously
estimated at between 5,000 and 50,000. A special unit of the
Department of Foreign Affairs, set up in 2006 to assist the
Irish Diaspora, assists Ambassador Michael Collins in this
endeavor. While the Irish Government understands that Irish
illegal aliens will not be dealt with separately from
comprehensive U.S. immigration reform, the Irish take this
emotive domestic issue to heart. Irish officials regularly
express deep concern for these illegals and ask the USG to
regularize their status as soon as possible.


16. (SBU) Special Visas. Ireland has requested approval of
a special visa category, such as the Australian E-3 visa or a
modified J-1 visa, which would enable Irish citizens to live
and work in U.S. for durations longer than currently
available under existing visa regulations. This request is
being reviewed by the White House, the State Department and
the Department of Homeland Security.


17. (SBU) International Economy. Ireland's economy is
closely tied to the economy of the U.S., as well as to
American investment. Ireland is worried that U.S. economic
difficulties will reverberate strongly in Ireland. Ireland's
economic policies are expected to remain staunchly
pro-American business.


18. (SBU) The Middle East. Ireland supports the
international community in calling for Hamas to renounce
violence and to recognize Israel's right to exist. It
supports the two-state solution. While concerned about
Hamas' attacks on Israel, Ireland also believes that Israel's
armed response has been disproportionately fierce. The Irish
are dismayed at the level of violence and are supportive of
the use of USG influence to make headway in the Middle East
Peace Process. Irish popular opinion generally favors the
Palestinian cause.


19. (SBU) Iran. While Ireland has generally supported
international dialogue with Iran rather than sanctions, it
recognizes that unchecked Iranian development of nuclear
capability and its flouting of UNSC Resolutions represent a
threat to the international community. Ireland supported the
most recent third UNSCR on Iran in March 2008.


20. (SBU) Irish Peacekeeping/Darfur/Chad. The Irish Defense
Forces have roughly 760 troops serving in multilateral
peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, Chad, Bosnia, Afghanistan,
and elsewhere. Ireland is contributing 350-400 troops to the
EU's ESDP mission to Chad, which is led by an Irish General,
and sees this peacekeeping effort as contributing to the
situation in adjacent Darfur. The Irish Government prefers
not to expand its military engagement in Afghanistan, though
it will consider additional development and humanitarian

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assistance.


21. (SBU) Kosovo. Ireland has consistently worked within
the EU to forge a common position on Kosovo's independence
and supported the Ahtisaari Plan. On February 28, Ireland
recognized Kosovo's independence; the fourteenth country in
the world to do so. It will continue its engagement in KFOR
(for which it is the framework, or lead, nation and
contributes 270 troops),contribute officers to the ESDP
police mission, and allocate substantial additional
development and humanitarian assistance.


22. (SBU) Conflict Resolution. In 2007, then Foreign
Minister Dermot Ahern (now the Justice Minister) announced
the opening of a new Conflict Resolution Unit (CRU) in the
Department of Foreign Affairs. The Irish hope to use lessons
learned in Northern Ireland to help other conflict areas of
the world. The CRU,s first initiative will be in East
Timor. The new Department of Foreign Affairs Conflict
Resolution Unit has chosen East Timor as its first major
conflict resolution intervention initiative.


23. (SBU) Development Assistance. Ireland aims to
contribute 0.7 percent of GDP to overseas development
assistance by 2012. Africa is a particular focus.


24. (SBU) Climate Change. Although the Irish public and
media criticize the United States for remaining outside the
Kyoto Protocol, Ireland's rapid economic growth has made it
difficult for the country to meet its own Kyoto commitments.
Under the Protocol, Ireland pledged to reduce emissions to 13
percent above the 1990 levels by 2012, but emissions now
stand at 25 percent above the 1990 threshold. Ireland has
also signed on to even more stringent EU requirements of
reducing emissions by (up to) 30 percent by 2020. In this
context, the Government has welcomed Embassy proposals for a
cooperative approach to climate change and we are working on
bilateral initiatives focused on ocean/wave energy, methane
capture, and clean coal technologies.

FOLEY