Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DUBLIN178
2008-04-07 14:43:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dublin
Cable title:  

BRIAN COWEN ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR LEADERSHIP OF FIANNA

Tags:  PREL PGOV EI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5363
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0178 0981443
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071443Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9031
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0712
UNCLAS DUBLIN 000178 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: BRIAN COWEN ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR LEADERSHIP OF FIANNA
FAIL; VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO BECOME IRELAND'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER

REF: (A) DUBLIN 170

(B) DUBLIN 166

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000178

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: BRIAN COWEN ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR LEADERSHIP OF FIANNA
FAIL; VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO BECOME IRELAND'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER

REF: (A) DUBLIN 170

(B) DUBLIN 166


1. (U) On Saturday, April 5, Brian Cowen, Irish Deputy Prime
Minister (Tanaiste) and Minister of Finance formally submitted his
nomination to the Chief Whip of the Fianna Fail parliamentary party
for the position of leader of Fianna Fail, effective May 7 -- the
date of the planned resignation of Bertie Ahern, the current party
leader.


2. (U) In the past 48 hours, every Fianna Fail Member of Parliament
who might have mounted a challenge to Cowen for party leadership has
announced their support of him. Leadership of Fianna Fail, the
dominant party in the Fianna Fail/Green Party/Progressive Democrat
coalition, positions Cowen to become Irish Prime Minister on May 7 -
assuming there is no change in the support of Fianna Fail's
coalition partners.


3. (SBU) Comment: So far, there has been nary a whisper that the
governing coalition might crack. If anything Fianna Fail's position
is strengthening. John Gormley, the Green Party leader, stood
staunchly behind Ahern when he announced his resignation on April 2.
(The Green Party is the second largest coalition partner.)
Progressive Democrat (PD) leader Mary Harney also voiced support for
Cowen, but the support of the PDs - with only two members of
Parliament - is becoming increasingly marginal. On April 4 Fianna
Fail announced that independent Member of Parliament Beverley Flynn
would be readmitted to the party, increasing Fianna Fail's numbers
in the Parliament. It has become a foregone conclusion that Cowen
will be elected party leader unopposed when the Fianna Fail
parliamentary party meets on Wednesday, April 9. It is virtually
certain that he will be Ireland's next Prime Minister.

FOLEY