CABINET RESHUFFLE: POWER STRUGGLE OR GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000515

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KPAO QA
SUBJECT: CABINET RESHUFFLE: POWER STRUGGLE OR GOVERNMENT
RATIONALIZATION?

REF: DOHA 475 (NOTAL)

Classified By: CDA MICHAEL A. RATNEY, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Consequences of the July 1 Cabinet
re-shuffle (reftel) continue to be unclear, but Qataris and
expat observers have begun analyzing the shifts in an attempt
to determine who won and who lost among Qatar,s major power
brokers. On the face of it, the creation of several new
ministries and the re-ordering of others re-centralizes the
Government by folding formerly independent bodies into
ministries that answer to the Prime Minister. Some observers
view this as a gain for PM Hamed bin Jassim Al Thani (HBJ) at
the expense of the Amir,s wife, Sheikha Mozah, who had
championed the creation of these independent agencies, and
the Amir,s son, the Heir Apparent, who did not acquire
additional responsibilities. Others see it not as a power
struggle between these two camps, but as a way for the Amir
to demonstrate to his population that the concerns of
ordinary Qataris remain first and foremost in his mind as the
nation amasses massive wealth. What is clear for the moment
is that few Qataris, even those in positions of
responsibility, know just what the Amir,s motivations were
for changing the Cabinet, or how lines of authority will
eventually shake out. END SUMMARY

Who,s Up and Who,s Down?
--------------


2. (C) Given the level of self-censorship among Qatari media,
there has been no discussion in the local press about
implications of the Cabinet shake-up. But in private
conversations, Qataris and long-term expatriates are trying
to read the tea leaves to understand what each major power
center in the Qatari establishment gained and lost. Some
contacts have speculated that the re-shuffle has strengthened
HBJ,s hand vis--vis Sheikha Mozah and her son, the Heir
Apparent, Sheikh Tamim, because the Prime Minister
theoretically now has more ministers and agencies reporting
to him. Others, however, see these changes as largely
cosmetic, since Tamim did not lose any responsibilities and
remains in control of the military, security and intelligence
organs.


3. (C) Another consequence of the reorganization suggests
that HBJ may have his power base diluted in an area where he
enjoyed substantial influence: foreign affairs. (NOTE: HBJ
is concurrently Foreign Minister and Prime Minister.) The
creation of the Ministry of International Cooperation (MIC),
to be headed by former head of the National Human Rights
Committee Khalid Al-Attiyah, may see some functions
previously handled at MFA shift to the MIC. Some diplomats,
journalists and political observers view the MIC,s creation
as a potential means, over time, to reduce HBJ,s control
over foreign affairs, with some observers going as far as to
say that this is the first stage of a broader plan of the
Amir to reduce HBJ,s international influence, strip him
eventually of his title as Foreign Minister (even if he
remains Prime Minister) and pave the way for a broader role
for Tamim in foreign affairs. Khalid Al-Attiyah is generally
perceived as a threat to HBJ,s authority in foreign affairs,
because his ) and his father,s -- demonstrated loyalty to
the Amir has afforded the family a measure of independence
from HBJ.


4. (C) The education sector, a major part of Sheikha Mozah,s
responsibilities as head of the Qatar Foundation, also seems
to have been protected from HBJ,s influence. Dr. Sheikha
al-Misned, President of Qatar University, and Richard
Darilek, the head of RAND Corporation,s Doha office, told PD
Officers that the Supreme Education Council (SEC) would
report &directly to the Amir8 and that plans were still on
track to fold the Ministry of Education into the SEC by
year,s end.

And What Does It All Mean?
--------------


5. (C) Darilek conceded that "something had to be done" about
the centrifugal forces pulling the Government in disparate
directions. The proliferation of supreme councils and
independent bodies had blurred lines of communication and
responsibility. Restructuring the government by creating new
ministries was meant to not only make it easier for HBJ to
task organizations and follow up on their work, but also to
give a seat at the Cabinet table to groups that had thus far

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been absent. The Minister of Environment, for example, will
now participate in Cabinet meetings, whereas the former
Supreme Council for the Environment did not have that
"privilege." Dr. al-Misned speculated that the moves may
have been less about HBJ and more about preparing the ground
for eventual parliamentary elections (which look unlikely
before at least 2010). "Ministers can be called before
Parliament and questioned,8 she said, &but independent
bodies cannot."


6. (C) Separately, the Chief Editor of Arabic daily "Al
Watan," a Qatari who professes to be close to Sheikh Tamim,
expressed the same view to PAO. "No Parliament in Qatar is
going to question the Amir, the Heir Apparent or Sheikha
Mozah, so councils headed by them need a minister who can be
expected to answer to the Parliament," he explained. Asked
if this would include the Prime Minister, the Editor replied,
"Normally, the Prime Minister should not be considered
untouchable by the Parliament."


7. (C) None of Embassy,s contacts appears to have a solid
idea of how the responsibilities of the new ministries will
turn out. In a July 14 meeting, MFA,s third-ranking
official, Mohamad Al-Rumaihi, told Charge that it was not
clear to him what role the MIC would play. Al-Rumaihi
observed that the MFA already had a functioning office
devoted to international organizations, and it made sense for
Minister Al-Attiyah to draw on those resources without moving
them to the MIC. Al-Rumaihi gave the impression that some
MFA functions may move to the MIC, and he himself may be
disappointed that that he was not named, as had been
speculated, to head the new entity.

Possible Motivations
--------------


8. (C) An established expat businessman with ties to senior
government officials told P/E Chief that viewed from a Qatari
perspective, the Cabinet re-shuffle is a rejection of the
"decentralization model" of government propounded by Sheikha
Mozah and the RAND Corporation. The majority of Qataris, he
noted, are not making money at the same rate as the country's
elites. Most Qataris do not see the benefit of Qatar,s
rapid economic growth and instead are suffering from
increasingly high inflation. Meanwhile, they gripe about
having to speak English to third country nationals in their
own country, and want to stick with tradition in the face of
rapid change.


9. (C) It particularly galls these conservative elements of
society that Sheikha Mozah appears in the press as a
fashionable "movie star" who, in the eyes of most Qataris, is
the force behind the rapid pace of change that now permeates
Qatari life. In this context, the Cabinet re-shuffle is
viewed by Qataris as the Amir,s rejection of that model and
a retreat from Americanization. In this businessman,s view,
the Amir needed to strike down the decentralization model
because it was arousing Qatari ire and not achieving many
visible benefits. He stressed that the Amir,s move,
however, does not suggest a lack of confidence in his wife,s
counsel or any increased confidence in HBJ.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Dr. Sheikha al-Misned may have summed up our
contacts, views best when she said that &the Amir seems to
be the only one in the Government who has a vision for this
country.8 The details of that vision, however, are not
entirely clear to anyone, except perhaps the Amir himself and
his closest associates. As noted reftel and as confirmed by
our contacts, none of Qatar,s major power brokers has seen a
true shift in power through this Cabinet re-shuffle,
suggesting that this may have been a mostly cosmetic move
meant to placate Qataris who are increasingly frustrated with
the pace of change around them and the fact that they do not
seem to be directly benefitting from much of it. While this
Cabinet re-shuffle may change little in the daily lives of
Qataris, one consequence may be that Sheikha Mozah and her
projects appear in the limelight a little less over the
coming year, even while she continues to play an important
role behind the scenes in Qatar,s social development and
governance.
RATNEY