A/S WELCH'S MEETING WITH QATAR'S PM

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2018
TAGS: PREL KPAL KWBG QA
SUBJECT: A/S WELCH'S MEETING WITH QATAR'S PM

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael A. Ratney,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister/Foreign Minister Hamad Bin
Jassim Al Thani (HBJ) told visiting NEA Assistant Secretary
David Welch March 31 that he was not optimistic that the
situation in Lebanon would improve anytime soon. He said it
is necessary to fix matters with Iran and Syria -- and not
isolate Syria -- before improving the situation in Lebanon.
In Qatar's view, a greater Shi'a role in Lebanon would harm
the entire region, including GCC states. HBJ said the
Iranian President is feeling more comfortable, sensing that
he's gotten past the nuclear threat issue. A/S Welch briefed
HBJ on the Israeli/Palestinian situation and urged Qatar to
provide assistance to the Palestinians through the Arab
League. Qatar continues to deliver foods and medicines,
including inside Gaza, but HBJ said Qatar would not give any
more cash for the time being. HBJ recommended keeping
negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians secret until
there is complete agreement. Qatar, said HBJ, would accept
any deal the Palestinians would accept. On bilateral
relations, HBJ expressed regret for whatever happened to sour
the relationship and said he could not make things right.
A/S Welch said he would not give up on righting the
relationship or obtaining Qatar's assistance with the
Palestinians. End Summary.


2. (C) Joined by Charge and P/E Chief, NEA Assistant
Secretary David Welch met March 31 with Prime

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Minister/Foreign Minister Hamad Bin Jassim Al Thani and
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Ahmed Al-Mahmoud, who
were joined by Qatar's Ambassador-designate to the U.S., Ali
bin Fahad Al-Hajri. HBJ, who attend the Arab League Summit
in Damascus with the Amir, told A/S Welch it was important
not to isolate Syria. A/S Welch responded that the U.S. is
always accused of interfering in Arab League matters, but for
the U.S. making progress on resolving important issues is
more important than the summit attendance. He added that
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had told
Secretary Rice that Abbas was pleased with his conversations

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in Damascus. HBJ said this was good news and offered that
the Summit in Damascus went smoothly, by and large.

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LEBANON, SYRIA, AND IRAN
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3. (C) Turning to Lebanon, A/S Welch asked HBJ for Qatar's
views on how to improve the situation there. HBJ said before
fixing Lebanon it is necessary to fix matters with Iran and
Syria. Hizballah would need to be included in these
conversations, perhaps in a meeting of 4-5 countries
including Iran and Syria. HBJ said Qatar had been involved
in such an initiative with Oman, but it is too early to hold
another discussion so soon after the Arab League Summit. It
is better, HBJ advised, to let a couple of weeks pass after
the Summit for tempers to cool.


4. (C) A/S Welch outlined U.S. thinking on Lebanon. The U.S.
at the outset hoped for election of a president by consensus.
That no longer appears possible. Electing a president with
a "50 percent plus one" majority holds big risks, and the
March 14 coalition is divided on this approach. That means,
observed A/S Welch, we are stuck with the status quo for the
time being and need to create an environment conducive to
future political change in Lebanon. With the Christians
divided, added A/S Welch, it would be good if Christian
representation in the Cabinet could be strengthened and if
the Shi'a could come into the fold.


5. (C) HBJ said there was not much hope the Shi'a would help.
He stressed that electing a president of Lebanon is
important, but there are other areas in which Iran and Syria
need to be involved and part of the solution. HBJ said the
Saudis are frustrated at achieving a workable solution for
Lebanon, and it seems both sides of the divide in Lebanon are
happy with the status quo. But the status quo is not
sustainable for a year to the next parliamentary elections.
Lebanon has a weakened government, no functioning parliament,
and a "militant hand" in Hizballah. HBJ said Arab
governments in general are concerned about the potential for
Shi'a Hizballah to play a greater role in Lebanon. "We don't
want a greater Shi'a role," declared HBJ, and "we are not
pro-Hizballah." The growing power of the Shi'a in the region
"harms us here in the Gulf."


6. (C) According to HBJ, the Iranian President is more
relaxed and comfortable in his role than before and feels he
has gotten past the nuclear threat issue. Qatar and the U.S.
are on the same path and have the same fears with respect to
a nuclear-armed Iran, but we may have different tactics. HBJ
said Arab states, including Qatar, do not want more wars or
armed conflicts in the region. Neither the region nor the

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world can afford this. Returning to Lebanon, HBJ predicted
"Lebanon will stay like this for a long time" and is likely
headed for a bigger clash. One incident could spark a war.
HBJ characterized the Lebanese Prime Minister as a friend and
someone with whom he speaks every three or four days by
phone. HBJ said convincing Syria to open an embassy in
Beirut and ease up on border restrictions would be hard. HBJ
concluded by saying he is not optimistic.


7. (C) Expressing agreement with much of HBJ's analysis, A/S
Welch said the U.S. had been careful to avoid advocating for
particular presidential candidates in Lebanon a la France.
Noting the U.S. does not talk to Hizballah, A/S Welch
nonetheless believed Hizballah does not want a clash or war,
an objective bolstered by private communications he had
received from leading Lebanese figures. Instead, A/S Welch
observed that Hizballah was preparing to win the 2009
parliamentary elections, knowing that better representation
in parliament would help Hizballah's fortunes -- and the aims
of Syria and Iran. The U.S., said A/S Welch, would continue
to support the Central Bank, government, army and other key
institutions. The U.S. would continue to talk to the
parliamentary leadership, to enjoin that parliament should
continue to function. HBJ offered that maintaining a
dialogue with all parties is wise, but A/S Welch cautioned
that the wisdom of a dialogue depends on its terms. HBJ
closed the discussion on Lebanon by offering to share the
paper with A/S Welch on Qatar's thinking that he had
developed with Omani FM Bin Alawi.

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ASSISTANCE TO THE PALESTINIANS
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8. (C) On the Palestinian situation, A/S Welch said there is
a "real, serious and substantive" political/negotiations
track between the Palestinians and Israel, but the ongoing
situation on the ground, and the role of outside actors, must
also be addressed. President Bush and Secretary Rice are
committed to visiting the region in the weeks ahead, and the
U.S. remains fully invested on the ground. A/S Welch
reported that there is an intense, private dialogue between
the U.S. and Israel on Israeli settlements in Palestinian
areas. He stressed the need for the help of Qatar and other
Arab states in assisting the Palestinians. HBJ said Qatar
supports Abbas and provides food and medicines to residents
of Gaza. It is not true, however, that Qatar supports Hamas,
stressed HBJ. He said he had told Abbas that Hamas must in
the end be with him to sign an agreement with Israel. HBJ
advised A/S Welch of the importance of keeping any
negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians secret and
not leaking details before there is a final, agreed upon
package. It would be best if the Arab League members had
visibility on the secret deal, but HBJ said Qatar would
accept any deal with Israel that the Palestinians accept. It
is up to the Palestinians, he emphasized, to decide what is
acceptable.


9. (C) A/S Welch said it was unlikely Abbas would approach
Hamas anytime soon. Returning to the need for assistance,
A/S Welch asked Qatar to help the Palestinian Authority via
the Arab League. HBJ responded that Qatar had supported the
Authority more than any other Arab League country, having
given 200 million USD through the Arab League in 2007.
Qatar's six-month pledge, he explained, finished about the
time that Gaza went into upheaval. Qatar continues to
deliver food and medicines inside Gaza, but HBJ said Qatar
would not give any more cash for the time being. A/S Welch
pointed out that 58 percent of the Palestinian Authority
Budget is spent in Gaza. Prime Minister Fayyad, he stressed,
does not have enough money to meet his payroll. It is
important not to let him go broke. HBJ responded that he
would take a fresh look. A/S Welch underscored that any
assistance would make a difference. The situation on the
ground concerns us, added A/S Welch, and we don't have a good
answer in Gaza. The U.S. will continue to work through the
issues of roadblocks and checkpoints in the West Bank, but
making progress in Gaza is much harder.

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QATAR SEEKS MORE TRUST, UNDERSTANDING, AND DIALOGUE
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10. (C) HBJ said money was not all that separated the U.S.
from Qatar. He lamented that Qatar is not part of many
discussions. "Maybe you don't trust us, but we've been good
to our word. Maybe we don't say what you like as others do,
but they don't deliver." We help the Israelis a lot and they
know this, referencing conversations with Israeli officials
in Doha as evidence. HBJ said he had been told that
President Bush complained about Qatar to other GCC states
during his recent trip to the region. A/S Welch said he
believed the President took issue with Al Jazeera coverage,

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and so did everyone at one time or another. HBJ responded
that Arab media in the region is worse than Al Jazeera by
pandering to public opinion. Qatar, HBJ continued, sees the
U.S. as our ally and friend. HBJ expressed regret for
whatever happened to sour the relationship and said he could
not make things right. He had tried and failed.


11. (C) A/S Welch said he would not give up on righting the
relationship or obtaining Qatar's assistance with the
Palestinians. HBJ said strategic partnerships require trust,
understanding, and dialogue. He advocated a comprehensive
relationship in all respects. A/S Welch pointed out that
helping the Palestinians amounted to helping them more than
helping the U.S.


12. (U) A/S Welch has cleared this message.
RATNEY