QATAR'S AMIR TO ATTEND ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DOHA 000224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2018
TAGS: PREL LE SY QA
SUBJECT: QATAR'S AMIR TO ATTEND ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT IN
DAMASCUS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael A. Ratney,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In a March 16 meeting, MFA Assistant Minister for
Follow-Up Affairs Mohammed Al-Rumaihi (#3 MFA official) told
Charge that "for sure the Amir will go" to the Arab League
Summit in Damascus. Al-Rumaihi observed that "no one" has
clear insights into all the dynamics of internal Lebanese
politics, which is why he believes a solution requires all
Lebanese political players sitting at a table to resolve the
current impasse on presidential elections. He said Saudi
Arabia, as the sponsor of the Ta'if Accords, would need to be
at the table, as would Syria, the Arab League, the United
Nations and representatives of the UN Security Council P-5.


2. (C) Charge agreed that Lebanese politics are complex, but
emphasized that a change of approach by Syria is essential to
ending the impasse. Charge said Qatar could send a strong
message to Syria along these lines if the Amir did not attend
the Summit. Al-Rumaihi responded that the Amir would
definitely participate, because he believes nothing will be
resolved absent clear and direct communication with his
counterpart, Bashar Al-Asad. It is important, in Qatar's
view, to maintain lines of communication with all parties.
Al-Rumaihi said there was already much (and sufficient)
public pressure on the Syrians given the decision by Saudi
Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to send lower-level representatives
to Damascus. Qatar believes there is a role for both
pressure and engagement. Asked who will represent Saudi
Arabia, Al-Rumaihi said it is doubtful the Saudis will send a
representative at or above the ministerial level.


3. (C) Charge cautioned that the members of the Arab League
risk enhancing Syria's self-image as a leader in the Arab
world by not collectively standing up to Damascus over the
unhelpful role it is playing in Lebanon. Al-Rumaihi said it
is only Syria's perception that it is a leader of the Arab
world; the reality is far different. What matters most,
stressed Al-Rumaihi, is that no one in the Arab world has the
ability to build the reconciliation of Lebanon on the ground.
The Lebanese must do this themselves, with the help and
encouragement of the Arab and international communities.


4. (C) Misreading the situation in Lebanon often makes
matters worse, observed Al-Rumaihi. He cited the example of
Israeli military operations in Lebanon. By targeting
civilian and infrastructure not associated with Hizballah -
which he said "lives for" playing a military role and acting
as an "agent provocateur" - Israel caused all Lebanon to
rally around Hizballah, thereby inflating Hizballah's
political importance and role in selecting the next Lebanese
president. Al-Rumaihi remarked that Israel is strong in
tactical decision-making but not in strategic thinking.
Broader strategic thinking in Lebanon, concluded Al-Rumaihi,
is now required.
RATNEY