Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DILI92
2008-03-21 08:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dili
Cable title:  

TIMORESE PARTIES EXPECT DURATION OF AMP COALITION THROUGH

Tags:  PGOV ASEC TT 
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PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHHM
DE RUEHDT #0092/01 0810831
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 210831Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3943
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1051
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0932
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 1033
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0847
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 3372
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000092 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EAP/MTS AND DAS MARCIEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV ASEC TT
SUBJECT: TIMORESE PARTIES EXPECT DURATION OF AMP COALITION THROUGH
2012

DILI 00000092 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: Hans Klemm, Ambassador, US Embassy Dili, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (c)
Summary

-------



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000092

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EAP/MTS AND DAS MARCIEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV ASEC TT
SUBJECT: TIMORESE PARTIES EXPECT DURATION OF AMP COALITION THROUGH
2012

DILI 00000092 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: Hans Klemm, Ambassador, US Embassy Dili, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (c)
Summary

--------------




1. (C) A survey of leaders of Timor-Leste's political parties
has found broad agreement that the current Alliance for a
Parliamentary Majority (AMP) Cabinet is likely to serve its full
term of office, barring unforeseen circumstances. However, the
February 11 attacks on President and Prime Minister have touched
off a united chorus of criticism of the UN Integrated Mission In
Timor-Leste - especially its police component, UNPOL - and the
Australian-led International Stabilization Force (ISF). Both
government and opposition parties have also complained about
Prosecutor General Longhinos Monteiro's handling of the
investigation into the attacks, citing a lack of transparency.
Veteran politician Mario Carrascalao continues to insinuate that
Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao may have had a hand in the attacks.
End Summary.



Timor-Leste's major parties

--------------




2. (C) During a series of meetings since February 29, Poloff
held discussions on the National Parliament's views on
Timor-Leste's political climate with the following members of
parliament (MP): Social Democratic Party (PSD) president Mario
Carrascalao, National Unity Party (PUN) president Fernanda
Borges, Democratic Party (PD) caucus chair Adriano Nascimento,
Timorese Social Democratic Association (ASDT) caucus chair
Domingos da Costa, and FRETILIN MP Ana Pessoa. Pol Assistant
met with National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) MP
Carmelita Moniz. The AMP coalition party membership includes
CNRT, ASDT, PSD, and PD. FRETILIN maintains the role of
de-facto opposition in spite of their public stance that the
current government is illegal and unconstitutional, and PUN is
led by one of Parliament's most reliable and thoughtful members.



PSD: "Grave questions remain unanswered"

--------------




3. (C) Poloff met February 29 with veteran politician Mario
Carrascalao, president of the Social Democratic Party (PSD).

True to form as the AMP coalition's in-house gadfly, he
elaborated on his publicly expressed theories that Prime
Minister Xanana Gusmao may have had a hand in the February 11
attack on President Ramos-Horta. In the immediate aftermath of
the 2/11 attacks, Carrascalao told the Lusa Portuguese news
agency that the attacks against the Prime Minister seemed
"staged," and raised eyebrows by adding that "someone powerful"
may have coordinated the attacks. His comments made headlines
in Timor-Leste's media and raised questions regarding PSD's
loyalty to the AMP coalition.




4. (C) In his discussion with us, Carrascalao repeated his
suspicions that there was a third party involved in the attacks.
He pointedly criticized the Prosecutor General's investigation
on the attacks, and grimly observed that "grave questions remain
unanswered." Questioning Reinado's intent to kill the
President, Carrascalao pointed out he was in the midst of
ongoing negotiations, and the President was in effect Reinado's
only protector. Carrascalao recalled that in a late January
meeting between the Prime Minister and the AMP coalition
parties, he had questioned the PM on his plans "to politically
eliminate" Reinado, and said that he were Prime Minister he
would bring the rebel back into the F-FDTL and then solve the
institutional problems facing the military.




5. (C) Carrascalao stressed that before the February 11 attacks,
the National Parliament had created a parallel effort to resolve
the Reinado problem. In late January, he said, the National

DILI 00000092 002.2 OF 004


Parliament's AMP caucus chairs met to create a commission to
negotiate with Reinado in efforts parallel to those carried out
by the President. This was followed by a February 6 visit to
Reinado by ASDT, PD, and PSD members, with the CNRT member
excusing himself at the last minute due to having had "a bad
dream" the night before about the visit. The trip resulted in
chaos when ISF forces patrolling the area where spotted by
Lieutenant Salsinha, who fired six rounds to warn off the
Australian troops. Allegedly, Reinado told the MPs this was a
provocation he would defend himself against, and broke up the
meeting under the excuse of "protecting their safety."




6. (C) Carrascalao discussed another meeting held at President
Ramos-Horta's house on February 7 attended by Mari Alkatiri,
Lu-Olo Guterres, Ana Pessoa, Arsenio Bano, Jose Manuel
Fernandes, Jose Reis, and Cipriana Pereira from FRETILIN, and
Prime Minister Gusmao, Adriano Nascimento, an unnamed ASDT
representative, and himself for AMP. He reported telling Gusmao
the PSD would accept early elections if constitutional reasons
necessitated them, mainly a continuing impasse on resolving the
petitioners and internally displaced persons (IDP) issues.
Carrascalao stressed that he, the President, and Alkatiri all
agreed that the AMP was not moving effectively to resolve these
issues. While predicting that the current government would last
until elections due in 2012, he warned of the destabilizing
potential of not resolving the petitioners and IDP issues.



PUN: "Impunity Curse" haunts Timor

--------------




7. (C) In a meeting with Poloff on March 1, PUN President
Fernanda Borges also predicted the AMP coalition will remain
united through 2012, although she also predicted "impunity,
impunity, and more impunity" on the road ahead. She also
observed that FRETILIN, while still formidable, is weakened and
has no choice but to work with the government. On the events of
2/11, she questioned the wisdom behind the President's decision
to negotiate directly with Reinado, ignoring the judiciary as an
institution. She cited judge Ivo Rosa's order last June for the
ISF to capture Reinado and bring him to justice, and the
President's response to criticize the judge, ignore the courts,
and lean towards a blanket amnesty solution for Reinado and the
petitioners. As a result, the rebel's mythical status and ego
grew with the unintended devastating consequences witnessed on
2/11. Ms. Borges also criticized the Prosecutor General's
investigation, and said that no answers have been given to the
public regarding the events, which in turn will fuel only more
rumors.





PD: "Are we a democracy?"

--------------




8. (C) In a March 17 meeting with Poloff, PD Caucus chair
Adriano Nascimento also predicted the AMP coalition will remain
united through 2012, although he questioned the timing for
resolving the IDP and petitioners issues. He hesitantly
questioned why the Prosecutor General has not given a public
update on his investigations into the 2/11 attacks, and wondered
why the FBI and Australian Security Service teams that assisted
in the investigation "were not heard from again" after working
under Monteiro's guidance.




9. (C) On the ISF and UNPOL forces, he questioned their
effectiveness for not preventing the 2/11 attacks given the fact
Reinado managed to arrive at the President's doorstep without
being intercepted by the ISF forces that allegedly were
monitoring him. On UNMIT, Nascimento lamented the fact that
"their presence has not been able to stop Timorese from killing
Timorese. Are we a democracy if these things still occur?"


DILI 00000092 003.2 OF 004





10. (C) To bolster his critique of the ISF, Nascimento recounted
his August 6 trip to Ermera with two other MP's and Benevides
Barros, Reinado's lawyer. He described the trip as in response
to the NP's decision to initiate dialogue with Reinado to
resolve the petitioners' issue. He recounted how Reinado became
"hysterical" when members of his group spotted the ISF
surrounding the perimeter of his hide-out residence, and
Salsinha fired six warning shots. Nascimento noted that he
stepped out of the house to meet the ISF troops, who in his
judgment "went there to provoke a confrontation to disrupt our
meeting with Reinado."




11. (C) Nascimento ruled out early elections because the only
valid reason for these would be a breakdown in the functions of
state, which had continued to work effectively following the
2/11 attacks in stark contrast to the breakdown of institutions
during the 2006 crisis. He added that stability lies ahead for
the country because the lessons of 2/11 are that "violence does
not resolve problems." On FRETILIN, he observed that the party
has no choice but to serve as an opposition through 2012, since
it cannot effectively undermine the government.



ASDT: "Internal discussions" do not hamper unity

-------------- ---




12. (C) In a meeting with Poloff on March 18, ASDT caucus chair
Domingos da Costa also predicted the AMP coalition will remain
united through 2012, dismissed rumors about divisions within his
party as "internal discussions" which do not threaten the AMP
coalition, and described Mario Carrascalao's recent comments as
"not necessarily shared by members of his party (PSD),but not
any different from questions held by many Timorese at this
time." He also dismissed the possibility for early elections
based on the fact that state institutions continued to function
after the 2/11 attacks in contrast to the 2006 crisis.




13. (C) Mr. Da Costa complained about the Prosecutor General's
perceived lack of transparency in providing the Timorese people
an update of his investigation. He added that the only
information the public receives has come from the local media.
He echoed Carrascalao's criticisms "because the government
promises to resolve these problems but never does anything about
them." However, he accused some petitioners and IDPs of
"manipulating events by purposefully prolonging resolution to
their problems through excessive demands, or having family
members stay in their homes so they can live in the camps and
collect government hand-outs." He stressed that the government
has taken some solid steps in the right direction by allocating
critical funds towards programs to return IDPs to their homes
through cash payments, and more investment in education.



CNRT: Minor differences do not splint AMP

--------------




14. (C) In a meeting with Pol Assistant on March 17, CNRT MP
Carmelita Moniz also predicted the AMP coalition will remain
united through 2012, and downplayed rumored differences within
the coalition as part of the normal political process. She
recognized that FRETILIN continues to approach some PD members
and sometimes earns their support, but attributed this to some
members' close association with FRETILIN which does not reflect
the sentiments of rank and file party members. On Mario
Carrascalao's PSD, she observed that the party has had some very
public positions contrary to the AMP, but the coalition has been
able to manage and control his dissent to ensure government
unity.




15. (C) Moniz is reported to be very close to Prime Minister

DILI 00000092 004.2 OF 004


Xanana Gusmao, and she expressed deep concerns about rumors
suggesting he may have been involved in the events. She
stressed that Gusmao issued orders for the joint F-FDTL/PNTL
operations forces not to kill Salsinha because he wants him
alive to testify about who orchestrated the attacks.



FRETILIN: "AMP Government a disaster"

--------------




16. (C) In a March 18 meeting with Poloff, FRETILIN MP Ana
Pessoa also predicted the AMP coalition will remain united
through 2012, but warned that the government "is a disaster
which has failed in every task it has set out to do." Like MP's
from other parties, she dismissed the possibility for early
elections based on the fact that state institutions continued to
function after the 2/11 attacks in contrast to the 2006 crisis.
This, she explained, does not mean FRETILIN would not like to
see the "illegal and unconstitutional government" disappear from
the political scene. But the party is resigned that it must
play with the cards it has been dealt.




17. (C) Ms. Pessoa also criticized the Prosecutor General for
"hiding the facts" from the people, making blanket accusations
to the press, such as "a very influential woman is suspected of
being behind the attacks," and condemned the arrest of Jose
Texeira, a FRETILIN leader and former Minister, as an "illegal
act with the intent to intimidate the opposition." She labeled
other arrests as having been conducted "with much fanfare
followed by sudden silence," such as that of former Reinado
legal adviser Angelita Pires. She described Pires as "only a
small fish in the pond, not intelligent or smart enough to be
the mastermind." She further criticized the Prosecutor
General's "lack of seriousness by squandering valuable
opportunities" such as the FBI agents provided by the U.S., and
concluded the findings will inevitably be inconclusive because
different specialists have been assigned to the investigation.




18. (C) Ms. Pessoa, the ex-wife of President Ramos-Horta,
recalled the three weeks she had spent in Darwin to be near the
President. She described him as "psychologically devastated" by
the attack. Pessoa said she was outraged that no progress has
been made in apprehending Reinado's deputy Salsinha, and charged
acting President Lasama's rumored attempts at personal
negotiations with Salsinha as an example of what was wrong with
Timor-Leste's current political climate: "How can we have faith
in the rule of law when it is trampled on so blatantly? All
these things are occurring with the ISF and UNMIT in the
country."



Comment: Coalition strong, lingering problems remain

-------------- --------------




19. (C) All major political parties in the National Parliament
are united in predicting the AMP government will remain in power
through the next scheduled elections of 2012. Moreover, they
expressed confidence that the violence and social breakdown
experienced during the 2006 crisis will not be repeated because
the state is prepared this time to prevent such a scenario.
While all dismissed premature accusations against anyone in the
absence of proof, FRETILIN MP Ana Pessoa was most adamant that
it is "irresponsible" to make such speculations. However, all
parties also found common ground on criticizing the Prosecutor
General for mishandling resources to carry out an effective
investigation, and criticized his office for withholding
information from the public on the progress of the investigation
to allay fears or growing rumors about the attacks. FRETILIN
suggested this may be a tool to keep the opposition in check.
Even parties within the coalition have raised doubts about the
competence of the Prosecutor General.
RECTOR