Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DILI139
2008-05-12 08:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dili
Cable title:  

TIMOR-LESTE COALITION STABLE DESPITE STRESSES

Tags:  PGOV ASEC TT 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1527
PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHHM
DE RUEHDT #0139/01 1330859
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 120859Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3993
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1070
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0953
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 1047
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0870
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 3437
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000139 

SIPDIS

EAP/MTS AND DAS MARCIEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV ASEC TT
SUBJECT: TIMOR-LESTE COALITION STABLE DESPITE STRESSES

DILI 00000139 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Hans Klemm, Ambassador, US Embassy Dili, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000139

SIPDIS

EAP/MTS AND DAS MARCIEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV ASEC TT
SUBJECT: TIMOR-LESTE COALITION STABLE DESPITE STRESSES

DILI 00000139 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Hans Klemm, Ambassador, US Embassy Dili, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (SBU) Summary. A May 1 joint declaration between
Timor-Leste's opposition FRETILIN party and the leader of a
member party of the governing Parliamentary Majority Alliance
(AMP) does not portend a collapse of the government. The
immediate cause of this maneuver was patronage: one of the
coalition parties is aggrieved that its supporters are not
getting adequate government jobs. The strains within the
coalition also are attributed to personality conflicts arising
in part from Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's heavy-handed
leadership style. End summary.




2. (C) On May 1, Timorese Social Democratic Association (ASDT)
president Francisco Xavier do Amaral signed a "Term of
Agreement" with FRETILIN Secretary General Mari Alkatiri
pledging a future alliance between the parties. This touched
off speculation that ASDT was about to defect from the AMP
coalition and cause the collapse of the government. However,
during conversations with Poloff, observers from the Democratic
Party (PD),Social Democratic Party (PSD),ASDT, and opposition
party FRETILIN, reported the proposed alliance is a "political
maneuver" designed by Amaral to pressure Prime Minister Xanana
Gusmao to respond to demands for key cabinet positions and
ambassadorial posts. All parties termed a collapse of the AMP
unlikely at this time because they prefer Gusmao to FRETILIN,
and believe the coalition will remain united at least through

2012. However, the coalition representatives emphasized their
future decisions rest on Gusmao's response to their concerns.




3. (C) The "Term of Agreement" signed on May 1 between ASDT
president Amaral and FRETILIN Secretary General Alkatiri pledges
an alliance between the parties to combat the "prevalent trends
of nepotism, corruption, and injustice" through the formation of
a new constitutional government. Jose Turquel, an advisor to
President Jose Ramos-Horta who is also an ASDT member, said he
spent all morning on May 5 urging Amaral not to bring the party
close to FRETILIN. In public remarks on May 6, Amaral stated
his party will stay united with the AMP through 2012, noting

that the agreement with FRETILIN is "for future reference" if
early elections take place, or for consideration in 2012. On
May 7, however, he said his proposed alliance with FRETILIN is
meant to assuage concerns of an immediate defection from the
AMP. Nevertheless, Amaral declared the party will give the
Prime Minister a "deadline" of May 20 to respond to their
demands. Amaral added that if results are not achieved by that
deadline, the ASDT will grant the AMP up to two additional
months to do so. Amaral reportedly told UNMIT Chief Atul Khare
not to defer a trip to New York because ASDT was not planning to
pull out of the AMP coalition "at least for the next two
months."




4. (C) During a meeting with Poloff on May 12, Amaral clarified
that ASDT will remain in the AMP camp until 2012, or until "the
unlikely event" that early elections are called. He also
reported being upset by Gusmao's refusal to fire Minister of
Commerce, Industry and Tourism Gil Alves and Secretary of State
for the Environment Abilio Lima several weeks ago after they
were expelled from the ASDT, which he interpreted as an insult
to his integrity. Amaral described his proposed alliance with
FRETILIN as a response to this perception, and accused Alves and
Lima of not promoting "party interests" since the formation of
the government last fall. He further observed both men are
distrusted by many Timorese for their role as "collaborators"
during the Indonesian occupation and singled out Alves
specifically as unfit to serve the people because he referred to
the poor as "barefoot illiterates." On Alkatiri and Gusmao,
Amaral said his approach towards FRETILIN is a "strategic
decision based on the old adage: yesterday's hero can be today's
traitor, yesterday's traitor can be today's hero."




5. (C) During conversations with Poloff, Social Democratic Party
(PSD) president Mario Carrascalao, Democratic Party (PD) bench
chief Adriano Nascimento, Jose Turquel, and FRETILIN MP Jose
Teixeira told us these frictions did not presage the immediate
collapse of the government. They all described dissent from
within the AMP as criticism solely aimed at Prime Minister
Xanana Gusmao, not the coalition itself. Coalition members -
excluding the Prime Minister's National Congress for Timorese
Reconstruction (CNRT) - reported disgruntlement at what they
perceive to be Gusmao's refusal to engage in dialogue with them

DILI 00000139 002.2 OF 002


on political goals and objectives. FRETILIN MP Jose Teixeira
noted that Gusmao's "refusal to listen to anyone has alienated
these parties." These contacts also suggested that the Prime
Minister may have an alcohol problem which is impairing his
relations with others. During a May 5 meeting with Poloff,
James Dunn, author and longtime observer of Timor, reported the
Prime Minister angered President Ramos-Horta by turning up
"visibly drunk" at a reception in honor of Prince Albert of
Monaco in April.




6. (C) In separate interviews on May 8, Prime Minister Xanana
Gusmao, President Jose Ramos-Horta, and National Parliament
president Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo downplayed the ASDT's
moves and said these are issues which can be "internally
resolved through dialogue." All three expressed confidence in
the AMP. At present, an imminent defection of ASDT from the AMP
is not likely. Even PSD president Mario Carrascalao, whose
party ran in alliance with the ASDT during the 2007 elections,
expressed hopes the Prime Minister will be able to allay
concerns among his partners, and thereby strengthen the
coalition rather than weaken it. The challenge to the Prime
Minister will be whether he can successfully manage discontent
within his coalition, so that it does not rise above the mean
pettiness manifested to date.
KLEMM