IMPRISONED FORMER PM KHALEDA ZIA REMAINS DEFIANT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000656

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS KDE KCOR BG
SUBJECT: IMPRISONED FORMER PM KHALEDA ZIA REMAINS DEFIANT

REF: A. DHAKA 0608

B. DHAKA 0633

C. DHAKA 0632

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Nearly a week after Awami League President Sheikh
Hasina was paroled from prison to seek medical attention
abroad, a deal to free imprisoned Bangladesh Nationalist
Party (BNP) Chairperson Khaleda Zia appears elusive.
Complicating matters are Khaleda Zia's insistence that her
two jailed sons be sent abroad unconditionally for medical
treatment and that she remain in Bangladesh. Despite broad
speculation a deal between the Caretaker Government and
Khaleda Zia will be cut soon, there is little talk of
compromise from her and her supporters, not only on her fate
but on BNP participation in Parliamentary elections scheduled
for December. Still, Khaleda Zia's concern for her sons'
health and the Caretaker Government's desire to have the BNP
participate in elections suggest an accomodation may be
reached.

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A THREESOME COMPLICATES MATTERS
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2. (C) Former Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia
both were jailed by the Caretaker Government last year on
graft charges. Negotiating the terms of Sheikh Hasina's
release from jail was relatively simple, primarily because
she was eager to go abroad to visit her son, daughter,
grandchild and sister. The main stumbling block appeared to
be getting all components of the regime, especially the
Directorate General of Forces Intelligence, to agree to terms
of her release. Khaleda Zia, on the other hand, is insisting
her two ailing sons be released from prison immediately to go
abroad for medical treatment. The Caretaker Government
appears particularly nervous about what to do with her eldest
son, Tarique Rahman: his reputation for gross corruption and
brutality has created worries he could greatly damage
Bangladesh's frail democracy should he return to politics
(see Reftel A). Resolution of his fate may hinge in part on
whether his mother is willing to accompany him abroad;
Tarique's sister-in-law earlier told the Embassy that Khaleda
Zia was under pressure from the Government to leave the
country with him. That would provide political symmetry with
the compromise over Sheikh Hasina, but Khaleda Zia defiantly
declared in a June 16 court appearance she would not go
abroad.


3. (C) BNP Joint Secretary General Nazrul Islam Khan told
PolOff recently that he believed the government would reach
an accomodation with Khaleda Zia and her sons because she
remains popular within the military. Nazrul, who is a party
moderate, said his "hunch" was that upon being released she
would spend a week or more working to reunify and reorganize
the party before going abroad to be with her sons, Tarique
and Arafat Rahman Koko. Upon her release, Nazrul continued,
she would support BNP dialogue with the Caretaker Government
on the country's democratic future, just as Sheikh Hasina had
supported Awami League participation. Still, he acknowledged
that Khaleda Zia was keeping close counsel and handling her
negotiations with the Government on her own, making it
difficult to gain insight into her current thinking.

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BNP: AMBIVALENCE TOWARD ELECTIONS
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4. (C) While the fate of Khaleda Zia remains uncertain,
efforts to reunify a breakway reformist faction with her
loyalists appear on hold. Muhammad Nawshad Zamir, one of her
lawyers, and BNP Office Secretary Mohammad Ruhul Kabir Rizvi
told PolOff there could be no reconciliation until Maj.
(retired) Hafiz Uddin Ahmed, named acting BNP Secretary
General at a gathering of reformists in October, denounced
that meeting as "inappropriate." The loyalists indicated they
were not interested in taking the lead in uniting the party's
two factions, which presumably would be a prerequisite to a
strong BNP election campaign. (Comment: Rizvi in particular
might be taking a hard line on reunification because his
position within the party could suffer should senior
reformists return to the fold. End Comment)


DHAKA 00000656 002 OF 002



5. (C) Nawshad also said that, in a courtroom conversation
with Khaleda Zia earlier this month, she had expressed
distrust of Chief of Army Staff Gen. Moeen Uddin Ahmed.
(Note: Moeen, a key supporter of the Caretaker Government, is
perceived by many BNP leaders to be biased toward the Awami
League. End note.) Nawshad said Moeen's resignation could be
a BNP precondition for participating in the elections.
Nawshad and Rizvi also raised as a possible precondition the
resignation of the three-member Election Commission, which
lost credibility in the eyes of BNP loyalists after it
invited the reformists to talks on electoral reforms. Khaleda
Zia herself, however, has not commented specifically on
whether she would make such demands upon her release from
jail or on how she would approach the issue of reunification.

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IT'S NOT ALL ROSES FOR THE AWAMI LEAGUE
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6. (C) While the BNP remains in visible disarray, the
appearance of Awami League unity under Sheikh Hasina is
somewhat misleading. The day Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka for the
United States, Awami League Presidium Member Amir Hossain Amu
told PolOff he would conduct a "whispering campaign" among
local party activists against her continued leadership. He
said he could not work with her over the long-term and
confirmed he barely spoke with her in the hours between her
release from jail and departure abroad. Amu had privately
urged the regime not to release Sheikh Hasina to go abroad;
he acknowledged that his political hopes now depended on her
being convicted on at least one of the several graft charges
against her. (Note: Sheikh Hasina's graft trials can continue
in her absence. End note.)

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COMMENT: WHO WILL BLINK FIRST?
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7. (C) Although Khaleda Zia and the Caretaker Government
appear locked in a battle of wills, an eventual compromise
makes sense for both sides. Recent court appearances by her
two sons underscored the fragile state of their health. The
authorities no doubt hope that concerns about their health
will spur Khaleda Zia to reach an accomodation to get them
medical care abroad. Meanwhile, the regime realizes BNP
participation in political dialogue and in December elections
is unlikely without her release. The main sticking points
appear to be Tarique Rahman's political future and whether
Khaleda Zia will stay in Bangladesh or accompany her sons
abroad upon release from jail. Should she go, Nazrul is among
those who feel the prospects for a more stable political
environment in the run-up to December elections would
brighten. So too might prospects of loosening the two ladies'
decades-old iron grip on Bangladeshi politics.


Moriarty