EVERYONE IS TALKING, BUT IS ANYONE LISTENING?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 000345

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM BG
SUBJECT: EVERYONE IS TALKING, BUT IS ANYONE LISTENING?

Classified By: CDA A.I. GEETA PASI. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: The long-awaited dialogue between
Bangladesh,s Caretaker Government (CTG) and the political
parties is set to kick off at the end of March. For the CTG
and its backers in the Bangladesh Army, the goal of the
dialogue is to convince the political parties to sign on to a
&national charter8 that will ensure the continuity of
reforms. For their part, the parties want assurances that
national elections will be held by the end of 2008, and are
skeptical of CTG plans to conduct local elections and to hold
polls under a State of Emergency. There has also been
increased activity of late to finalize institutional reforms
desired by the Army to hedge against backsliding by the
politicians, including a proposed National Security Council
and a Truth Commission. We have been meeting with the
parties to make clear our support for the upcoming dialogue
and to reiterate the need for free, fair, and credible
elections by the end of the year, as promised in the Chief
Adviser,s roadmap. We have also told the politicians that
we believe they have a role to play, and a responsibility to
be part of the solution to Bangladesh,s ongoing political
crisis. Our meetings with the parties have received a great
deal of attention from the media, including some who accuse
the USG of interference in Bangladesh,s internal affairs.
End Summary.

Plans for Political Dialogue Become Clearer
===========================================


2. (C) Brigadier A.T.M. Amin, one of Army Chief General
Moeen Uddin Ahmed,s closest confidantes, recently met with
CDA a.i. and outlined the GOB,s current plans for the
long-awaited political dialogue with the parties. Amin
indicated that Chief Adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed would likely
announce the start of the dialogue in an address after
returning from his current trip to the OIC Summit in Dakar
and a subsequent visit to the UK. Amin speculated that
Fakhruddin might also take this opportunity to announce that
national elections would be held in December 2008. (Note:
The Chief Election Commissioner has suggested that a date
will be announced after the voter list is completed in June.)
The dialogue would begin with a plenary session involving
several hundred representatives from the political parties,
civil society, business community, and international
observers. The Chief Adviser and the Chief of Army Staff
will address the gathering. Other notable persons, including
Nobel Laureate Professor Mohammed Yunus and noted lawyer Dr.
Kamal Hossain, would also be invited to speak.


3. (C) Following the plenary session, a group of &eminent
persons8 would facilitate smaller group discussions with the
political parties and others. The group of &eminent
persons8 includes former CTG advisers, respected academics,
and others. The goal would be to reach consensus on a
&national charter8 which would be endorsed by the plenary.
This national charter would, among other things, include a
promise by all to ratify the actions of the Caretaker
Government during the State of Emergency. We have been told
by political party representatives that discussions are
underway with the government to finalize the agenda for the
national dialogue and discuss the outline of the national
charter. Significantly, politicians from different parties
have also started talking with each other to coordinate some
of their positions in advance of the dialogue.

Institutional Reforms: NSC and Truth Commission
============================================= ===


4. (C) In parallel to the national dialogue, the CTG is
also moving ahead with long-stalled institutional reforms,
including the creation of a National Security Council and the
formation of a Truth Commission for corruption cases. Both
initiatives are controversial, and have been the subject of
much speculation in the press. The Council of Advisers has
reportedly endorsed both concepts in principle, and draft
ordinances are being prepared. The former is intended to
institutionalize a role for the Army in decision making on
issues of national security. The latter is meant to provide
a mechanism for those suspected of past corruption to confess
their wrongdoing and pay restitution, in exchange for
immunity from prosecution. Those who participate in this
process would likely also have to accept disqualification
from running for office. We understand that the Truth
Commission would also be utilized to regularize payments that
have already been made to the government by some who have
been accused of corruption.

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Sticking Points: Local Elections and Emergency
============================================= ==


5. (C) While the press and others have expressed
reservations about the NSC and Truth Commission, the parties
have been largely silent on these issues. Instead, the
parties have focused their criticism on proposals to hold
local elections in advance of national elections and to
maintain elements of the State of Emergency throughout the
remainder of the CTG period. The parties are afraid that the
CTG and Army will seek to install their supporters into the
local government positions and use these either to influence
the results of parliamentary elections or to serve as
counterweights to elected MPs. The parties are also worried
that continuation of the State of Emergency will hamper their
ability to reach voters in advance of elections.


6. (C) For its part, the CTG and its supporters want to hold
local elections in order to inspire confidence in the minds
of the people in the restoration of democracy and also to
ensure that an elected government will not be able to
influence the results at the local level. The GOB has been
attempting to cultivate local leaders in an attempt to inject
new blood into the parties and the governing structure. CTG
supporters assure us that they will relax the State of
Emergency before elections, but say they cannot remove it
entirely for fear that this would result in court challenges
to the government,s legitimacy and also complicate their
efforts to prosecute high profile corruption cases.

Talking with the Parties
========================


7. (C) In order to reinforce, both privately and publicly,
our support for the restoration of democracy, the CDA a.i.
has begun a round of meetings with the heads of the major
political parties. The consultations began with a meeting
with the Awami League Presidium and a meeting with the head
of the anti-Khaleda Zia faction of the Bangladesh Nationalist
Party (BNP) on March 9. The CDA a.i. met with the leadership
of the Jamaat Islami Bangladesh March 16 and the Jatiya Party
March 18. Our meeting with the BNP,s loyalist faction is
pending while the Zia-appointed Secretary General of the
Party is in the U.S. for medical treatment.


8. (C) Our message in each of these meetings has been to
reiterate the importance of national elections by the end of
2008, to stress the need for dialogue, and to acknowledge the
important role (and responsibility) that the parties have in
finding a solution to the current political impasse. This
message has been repeated to the press, which has given front
page coverage to our meetings. Not surprisingly, some of the
commentary in the press has been negative, with left-leaning
editorialists criticizing the USG for "interfering in
Bangladesh's internal affairs." These same papers have also
criticized the British and others for their statements on
political issues, and were also critical of the international
community's attempts to mediate during the political crisis
in late 2006.


9. (C) Thus far, the party leadership of both the AL and
the BNP has expressed a willingness to participate in the
dialogue and to take part in national elections. Thus far,
the parties have staked out extreme positions on local
elections and the status of the two former Prime Ministers.
Overall, the parties claim that they have shown restraint,
but are worried that dissatisfaction among rank and file
members will put pressure on them to adopt a more belligerent
stance vis a vis the government. The parties have all
expressed their appreciation for our initiative to reach out
to them, and they have welcomed our public stance in favor of
elections and dialogue.

What about the two ladies?
==========================


10. (C) The future status of the two former Prime Ministers
remains the difficult item to resolve, both internally within
the parties and externally for the CTG. Despite increasing
public speculation that one or both of the former PMs will be
allowed to travel abroad for medical treatment, it appears
that there are no serious negotiations currently underway
with either of the ladies. Instead, the focus seems to have
shifted to the national dialogue, perhaps in an effort to put
pressure on the two to come to some understanding with the
government.

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Advisers start packing their bags
=================================


11. (C) While there are still doubts in some quarters
regarding the prospects for national elections, it has become
increasingly clear that the Chief Adviser and members of his
Caretaker Government are preparing to leave the scene at the
end of 2008. We have heard from a number of sources,
including some of the Advisers themselves, that the Chief
Adviser has told friends and colleagues that he will not stay
in office &one day past December 31.8 Nor is there any
support for the CTG,s mandate to be extended. Rather, if
elections are not held by the end of 2008, we have been told
that the GOB might seek to hold a referendum as a prelude to
installing a &government of national unity8 to take up the
reins. At present, however, this appears to be more of a
contingency plan to be put in place if the parties boycott
parliamentary elections.

Comment
=======


12. (C) Over the last month, we have sensed an increasing
pragmatism on the part of the CTG and the Army and a
realization that they need to reach some accommodation with
the parties. Given Chief Adviser Fakhruddin,s insistence
that he will not stay in office past December 2008, the CTG
has finally realized that it needs to play an active role in
creating conditions that will lead to an election. The Army
also seems intent upon tying up loose ends*such as the
status of the funds it has recovered from corruption
suspects, and also moving ahead with Army Chief General
Moeen,s extension for at least another year. It remains to
be seen whether the parties are willing (or able) to reach an
understanding with the CTG on fundamental issues like the
status of the two former Prime Ministers. The coming
dialogue, and decisions about institutional reforms, should
help determine whether or not the GOB will be able to adhere
to the electoral roadmap announced in July 2007. Skepticism
abounds, with more cynical observers noting that in
Bangladesh dialogues often devolve into simultaneous
monologues. There will be plenty of talking in the coming
weeks, but the real question will be whether or not anyone is
listening.
Pasi