BANGLADESH ELECTION: A WATERSHED?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001361

SIPDIS

TO PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER KDEM EAID BG
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH ELECTION: A WATERSHED?

REF: A. DHAKA 1357

B. DHAKA 1358

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Awami League's landslide victory in Parliamentary
elections on 12/29 represented a stunning rejection of its
rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),which faced
widespread accusations of corruption and misrule during its
2001-2006 government. Should Awami League President Sheikh
Hasina make good on her promise to clean up Bangladesh's
historically graft- and violence-plagued politics, the
election could prove a watershed toward better governance of
this critically important, predominantly Muslim nation of 150
million people. In the coming days, Embassy Dhaka will urge
Awami League leaders to aggressively pursue an agenda to
promote political reform, including giving the opposition a
role in government. We also will provide suggestions as to
how the USG can help Bangladesh seize the opportunities
associated with the return of democracy.

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A VOTE AGAINST THE BNP
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2. (C) The Awami League swept 230 seats out of 299 contested,
according to unofficial final results reported by the
reliable bdnews24.com news service. It said the BNP won just
29 seats, a mind-boggling drop from the 195 seats it captured
in the 2001 election. Voters rejected nearly all national BNP
leaders who ran for Parliament. Only three nationally
prominent BNP figures won: Chairperson Khaleda Zia, who won
three seats (Note: Candidates can run for up to three seats.
By-elections will be held to fill two of the seats she won.
End note.); Salauddin Quader Chowdhury, her parliamentary
affairs adviser, who won one seat and lost another; and Vice
Chairman M.K. Anwar. (Note: Earlier reporting based on
incomplete returns said Anwar appeared headed for defeat. End
note.) Voters rejected many party figures accused of corrupt
activities during the BNP's last tenure in office, including
several whom the outgoing Caretaker Government jailed on
graft accusations.


3. (C) During pre-election reporting trips around the
country, EmbOffs heard several sources predict that recent,
widely reported allegations of corruption by Khaleda Zia's
youngest son in a deal involving Siemens would remind voters
of the endemic graft for which her administration became
known. Many Bangladeshis reviled her eldest son, Tarique
Rahman, who reputedly wielded great power under his mother's
rule to win favors for himself and enrich his cronies. The
Caretaker Government jailed both sons on corruption charges,
but courts later freed them to seek medical treatment
overseas. BNP Joint Secretary General Nazrul Islam Khan told
PolOff in a brief election post-mortem that complaints of
corruption during the 2001-2006 adminstration contributed
heavily to the defeat.


4. (C) The electorate also may have tired of the BNP's
constant trashing of the military-backed Caretaker
Government, which came to power in January 2007 to end months
of political violence, for imposing a state of emergency. In
recent weeks, public polling showed an overwhelming majority
of Bangladeshis believed the Caretaker Government had
succeeded in its main task, namely ensuring the 12/29
Parliamentary elections would be free, fair and credible.
(Note: Domestic and international election observers in their
initial read-outs reported only minor irregularities and said
the vote was credible. End note.) Bangladeshis also applauded
Caretaker Government actions to clean up corruption although
results of those efforts were mixed.


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AWAMI LEAGUE WIN: GREAT OPPORTUNITY, GREAT RISK
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5. (C) Awami League leaders have vowed to continue efforts to
fight corruption, even though the Caretaker Government had
detained Sheikh Hasina on graft charges. Some of the party's
winning candidates have highly tainted reputations as well.
The party has promised to give the BNP a meaningful role in
government in what would be a huge break from Bangladesh's
past winner-take-all politics. Although by 1330 local time on

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12/30 Sheikh Hasina had yet to give a victory speech, her
supporters appeared to be heeding her call not to go on the
rampage in celebration of the historic victory.


6. (C) Questions remain, however, about how magnanimous the
party will be. In 1975, former Awami League leader and Sheikh
Hasina's father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, tried to create a
one-party state. In 1996, when the Awami League was voted
into power with Hasina at the helm, she urged other parties
to join her government as junior partners. AMA Muhith, a
winning Awami League candidate who is seen as a potential
finance minister, told PolOff he was dismayed the margin of
victory was so huge. He said landslide victories had not
augured well for Bangladesh in the past and tended to
marginalize losing parties, which were needed to maintain a
viable opposition.


7. (C) While the Awami League may nonetheless extend an olive
branch to the BNP, it is unlikely to do so to Bangladesh's
leading Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, which won just two
seats compared with the 17 captured in 2001. The two top
leaders of Jamaat, which is the main BNP ally, lost their
races. Nazrul, the BNP joint secretary general, acknowledged
the branding of Jamaat leaders as "war criminals" for siding
with Pakistan in Bangladesh's war for independence was
effective, particularly among young voters. It is not clear
how Jamaat, which has been committed to democracy in
promoting its Islamist philosophy, will respond to its
election debacle.

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CONCLUSION: THE USG MUST GRASP THE HOUR
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8. (C) If nothing else, the Parliamentary vote was a loud cry
from Bangladeshis that they were tired of their country's
dysfunctional politics as usual. Post plans to underline this
message in conversations with Awami League leaders in the
critical coming days. The USG should offer whatever
assistance possible to encourage and assist the Awami League
to make good on its promises to fight graft and to promote a
new political atmosphere of cooperation. A more stable
democracy will make it easier for the USG to work effectively
with Bangladesh to fight terrorism in South Asia, a task of
even greater urgency after the recent carnage in Mumbai. We
plan to seek additional USG funds to move important agenda
items forward that advance democracy, development and the
denial of space to terrorists in Bangladesh. Post also will
maintain close contact with Jamaat to encourage it to
continue to pursue its Islamist agenda through non-violent,
democratic means despite its thumping at the polls. And
finally, in the coming days, we will provide additional
thoughts as to how the USG can best seize the new
opportunities in Bangladesh to secure long-term U.S.
interests.
MORIARTY