CARETAKER GOVERNMENT PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001349

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/PB
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS KDEM PTER EAID BG
SUBJECT: CARETAKER GOVERNMENT PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS AND
TRANSITION; EXPECTS AWAMI LEAGUE VICTORY

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES F. MORIARTY. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
=========


1. (C) With the campaign period over and Bangladesh's 81
million voters prepared to cast their ballots December 29,
the Caretaker Government (CTG) has its sights set on a
peaceful transfer of power to its elected successor. The CTG
expects to transfer power to the Awami League and its leader
Sheikh Hasina within two weeks after the elections, according
to Adviser Ghulam Quader. While acknowledging the importance
of convincing the losing party to participate in the
political process post-election, Quader said this will be the
winning party's responsibility--not the CTG's. Meanwhile,
Army Chief General Moeen Uddin Ahmed reiterated his
commitment to maintaining the Army's neutrality and ensuring
that all would be able to cast their ballots. The CTG
Advisers and the Army deserve great credit for their efforts
to lay the foundation for a better future for Bangladesh and
its citizens.

CTG Predicts (and Hopes) Awami League Will Win Big
============================================= =====


2. (C) The Ambassador met with Caretaker Government (CTG)
Adviser Major General (ret'd) Ghulam Quader December 27 to
review preparations for the December 29 election. In
addition to overseeing the Communications Ministry, Quader in
recent months has been one of the CTG's principal negotiators
with the political parties. During their hour-long meeting,
Quader appeared relaxed and confident about the status of
preparations for elections. He claimed not to know whether
there had been a decision about allowing mobile phones to be
used on election day Quader said he personally favored
shutting down the mobile phone networks but acknowledged
there were other opinions. Quader denied reports the
Advisers would meet with Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
leader Khaleda Zia and Awami League Leader Sheikh Hasina
prior to election day to discuss the transition. Quader
confided that his fellow Adviser, Hossain Zillur Rahman, had
been out of line when he told the press such a meeting was in
the cards. Quader claimed the CTG continued to accommodate
the parties, including shifting the date of the Chief
Adviser's final address to the nation (now scheduled for
December 28) to allow the two former Prime Ministers to speak
on the 27th.


3. (C) Quader told the Ambassador internal GOB surveys
showed the AL gaining 180 of the 300 parliamentary seats up
for grabs on election day, with the BNP winning 80 seats.
The remainder would go to smaller parties and independents.
If the results followed this pattern, the CTG planned to hand
over power to Sheikh Hasina's government on January 10 after
a brief transition period. Quader noted the AL had proposed
this date as it was the anniversary of Sheikh Hasina's father
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's triumphant return to Bangladesh after
the Liberation War in 1972. Were the BNP to win, Quader
speculated the transfer of power would take place almost
immediately--as early as December 30 (Note: This is a bit of
hyperbole, since results will not be official for several
days). Quader said the CTG would simply disappear after the
elections. He told the Ambassador the Council of Advisers
would hold its final meeting December 28 to take care of
pending business, including his Ministry's project to grant a
consultancy contract for the proposed Padma Bridge.

What The Future Holds
=====================


4. (C) Quader, a former head of National Security
Intelligence during Khaleda Zia's 1991 - 1996 government,
said the BNP's campaign strategy of running against the CTG
had failed. Quader praised the Ambassador's public
statements noting that preparations were underway for free,
fair, and credible elections: these statements had
undermined the BNP's attempts to claim the playing field was
tilted in favor of the Awami League. Quader said it would be
up to the winning party to convince the loser it had a stake
in the process and should agree to participate in parliament.
This was not something the CTG could do, he added.


5. (C) Quader emphasized the need for a future AL government
to take a strong stand against terrorism. Quader admitted he
had underestimated the strength of domestic militant groups.
In fact, he said militants detained in recent days had

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confessed to plans to disrupt the elections. Quader said it
would be important for the AL to maintain good relations with
the Army. The Adviser said Army Chief General Moeen Uddin
Ahmed had kept the Army neutral, which had helped the AL.
Quader said he did not think Moeen would seek an extension
after his term ended in June 2009. At the same time, Quader
thought it would be useful for the AL to offer Moeen a
position, for example as Minister of Defense, after his
retirement.


6. (C) Quader predicted the AL alliance with the Jatiya
Party would not survive long after the election. If the AL
were able to form a government on its own, as the surveys
predicted, Hasina would not be interested in giving anything
to Jatiya Party President Ershad.

General Moeen Reiterates Pledge To Keep Army Neutral
============================================= =======


7. (C) In a separate meeting December 28, General Moeen said
he had given the Army strict instructions to remain neutral
and to ensure that all were able to cast their votes. Army
personnel would stay clear of polling centers and would serve
as a reserve "strike force" if needed. The Ambassador
congratated Moeen on the constructive role the Army had
played in creating conditions for elections. Moeen
acknowledged this, and shared his believe that the Army would
be able to develop an amiable relationship with the elected
government. While there might be some shifting of senior
personnel to accomodate the incoming administration's
preferences, the Army would not suffer from the politicians'
return.

Comment
=======


8. (C) Quader and his fellow Caretaker Advisers deserve
great credit for their efforts to bring Bangladesh's
transition to democracy to a successful conclusion. Since
mid-2008, they have shown admirable flexibility in
accommodating the political parties' demands and have worked
to create a level playing field for elections. At the same
time, they have continued to pass ordinances which, taken as
a whole, help create a better foundation for Bangladesh's
democracy. Recent polls show that the people of Bangladesh
are beginning to look more kindly upon the CTG period. As
time passes, it is likely the CTG era will look even better,
unless the politicians are able to show that they have
learned something from their time out of power.
MORIARTY