CAMPAIGNS IN FULL SWING: OPTIMISM PREVAILS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001336

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/PB, SCA/FO, DRL; DEPT PASS TO PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BG
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNS IN FULL SWING: OPTIMISM PREVAILS IN
DHAKA, TANGAIL, AND JESSORE

DHAKA 00001336 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
========


1. (C) Voters and observers in traditional BNP strongholds of
Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore Districts told visiting Embassy
officers they thought elections would be free, fair, and
credible. While there has been little change in party
platforms, candidates have largely observed the electoral
code of conduct. Both BNP and AL candidates complained about
the limited campaigning time available before the December 29
election. BNP candidates seemed particularly disgruntled
about the role of the Election Commission and the effects of
delimitation. Some observers expressed concern about the role
of the army on election day, but most predicted this election
would be less violent and more credible than previous polls.

Business as Usual: Personality-Based Campaigning
============================================= ===


2. (C) In general, voters in Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore told
visiting Embassy Officers they were hopeful elections would
be free, fair, and credible. Voters hoped that the
significance of this election, (as a big step in the
transition back to democracy) the work of the Election
Commission, and the presence of thousands of observers would
eventually force the losing party to acquiesce and accept the
results, even if their first reaction would be to cry foul.
As we have heard in other regions, voters said they were
mainly concerned about food prices, law and order, corruption
and local development issues. For their part, candidates for
the most part have avoided addressing these issues head-on.
Instead of discussing issues, personalities continue to
dominate the campaign.

Voters More Educated and Empowered
======================================


3. (C) Many observers reported a significant increase in
voter awareness this year, describing the electorate as
better informed about the issues and the electoral process,
as well as more likely to hold the parties accountable.
Observers said voters appeared empowered by their new
voter-ID cards and had a sense of confidence the recently
compiled voter list would help ensure a fair vote count on
December 29. In addition, civil society representatives
credited the media for this positive development, noting that
daily newspapers were now available even in rural areas.

BNP Candidates Still Concerned about Delimitation
============================================= ====


4. (C) BNP candidates in Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore
registered grievances against the Election Commission,
questioning its neutrality and complaining about the
delimitation (re-districting) process. The incumbent
candidate in Jessore 3 believed that 12,000 of his strongest
supporters had been pulled into a neighboring constituency.
Former MP and lead petitioner against the delimitation
process, incumbent candidate Abdul Mannan, complained he
would not have the time to reach all the voters in his
constituency since it had doubled in area. Despite this, BNP
candidates said they were prepared for the election and
optimistic that voters would return them to power. Other
observers agreed that the re-drawing of constituency
boundaries in Dhaka, Tangail, and Jessore could lead to much
closer races in the historically BNP-dominated areas. Still,
journalists and election observers overwhelmingly agreed that
the Election Commission had acted neutrally throughout the
pre-election process. All expected, nevertheless, that the
BNP would cry foul if it lost on December 29.

Candidates Observing Code of Conduct in Jessore
============================================= ==


5. (C) During Emboffs December 15-17 travel to Jessore
(Khulna Division),black and white campaign flags adorned the
streets and villages took on a festive air. Local observers
noted that candidates, by and large, had thus far acted in
accordance with the election code of conduct. At the same
time, many expressed disappointment that Khaleda Zia had gone
negative and claimed a government conspiracy in her recent
Jessore campaign tour. Emboffs noted the lack of campaign
posters on buildings and banners on the streets -- a striking
difference from the 2006 pre-election atmosphere. Some

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observers speculated one local BNP candidate might have begun
paying bribes. For the most part, however our contacts
agreed candidates were abiding by the code of conduct and
that the pre-election atmosphere would be much more conducive
for peaceful elections than in previous election years.

Some Observers Question Role of the Army
========================================


6. (C) Most observers agreed that the deployment of the army
would help to deter election-related violence. However, some
civil society representatives in Tangail questioned the role
of the army on election day. Some journalists reported a
general fear of the army in Tangail, in part due to the 2007
killing of Garo activist Choilesh Ritchil in Madhuphur. In
addition, they were skeptical that high-level army officials
would be willing to turn power back over to the political
parties. Moreover, they believed that some constituents -
especially Garo tribe members ) might be unwilling to vote
in the presence of army personnel. Civil society
representatives did agree, however, that the presence of
numerous local and international observers during this
election might help to assuage those fears. Observers in
Jessore were not of the same mind as the army. Some noted
that while army personnel could be intimidating de facto, the
presence of the army on Election Day would be generally
accepted and in most cases appreciated, as the army could
serve to deter acts of political violence.

Comment
=======


7. (SBU) During Emboffs pre-election visits throughout Dhaka,
Tangail, and Jessore, voters and observers clearly expressed
their expectation of a free, fair, and credible election on
December 29. With the campaign season now in full swing, we
will continue to assess whether candidates are abiding by the
code of conduct. In Jessore, candidates, voters and observers
acknowledged a peaceful campaign atmosphere. We are hopeful
this sentiment will be reflected throughout the rest of the
country now that the State of Emergency has been lifted. We
will continue to assess preparations for the December 29
elections next week and as we begin to deploy our observer
teams for Election Day.
MORIARTY