IN RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS NORTH BENGAL IS EAGER FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001321

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018
TAGS: ECON KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL PREF BG
SUBJECT: IN RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS NORTH BENGAL IS EAGER FOR
CHANGE

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1. (SBU) Voters in North Bengal are eager for change, but
are not united on the type of change they want. In the
run-up to Bangladesh's parliamentary elections December 29,
parliamentary candidates, businessmen, educators and civil
society leaders in three districts of Rajshahi Division
revealed a diversity of political views. Voters' ethnic or
religious backgrounds appeared to heavily influence their
opinions, as did their regional association with certain
candidates. Economic concerns, such as infrastructure
development, poverty alleviation, energy production and trade
with India also loomed large. Most voters appeared
disillusioned with the Caretaker Government, allowing the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party to run on an anti-incumbent
platform, despite having been in office 2001-2006.

Bangladesh's Northwest Frontier
--------------

2. (U) The northern half of Rajshahi Division, an area
historically known as North Bengal, is almost completely
surrounded by India, and its geography has played an
important part in its history and cultural makeup. It has a
large Hindu population, approaching 50 percent in some
western areas, and it experienced heavy fighting during the
1971 Liberation War when the Indian Army entered Bangladesh
to support the freedom fighters. It is an area of rich
agricultural production and coal resources, but its isolation
from the rest of Bangladesh and restrictions on trade with
India at its border posts have worked to its economic
disadvantage.


3. (SBU) On a visit to the area December 10-14, Pol-Econoff
detected distinctly different perspectives in the two main
cities of Dinajpur and Rangpur. Dinajpur and nearby
villages, with their large Hindu populations, seemed to favor
the secular stance of the Awami League (AL),even though the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won more seats there in

2001. Rangpur politics appeared to be more
personality-based, dominated by the powerful presence of
former President Ershad.

Secular Dinajpur Leans Awami
--------------

4. (SBU) In Dinajpur District, Pol-Econoff interviewed two
pairs of AL-BNP rivals, one pair in the city itself and the
other in the outlying village of Sitabganj. Both AL
candidates spoke at length about local concerns, barely
mentioning party leader Sheikh Hasina, while the BNP
candidates focused on national politics and party leader
Khaleda Zia. A discussion with a group of teachers and
journalists revealed their overwhelming support for a secular
government. Eager to vote, they worried about possible
violence when the state of emergency was lifted, some even
suggesting emergency rule should continue through the
election to ensure security. They admired the caretaker
government's attempts to address corruption and to raise
public awareness of the problem, but were disappointed by the
recent release from prison of former officials charged with
corruption. They wondered whether the caretaker government's
reforms had staying power. A retired barrister and human
rights activist in Dinajpur reported widespread harrassment
of minorities by law enforcement officials in recent years,
for which he blamed BNP politicians. A well-educated and
respected Hindu teacher in Sitabganj claimed Hindus and
Adivashis (indigenous people) in his community enjoyed a good
relationship with Muslims. He also said he had never known
of a Hindu in his community voting BNP.


5. (C) In the 2001 election, the AL won only one of
Dinajpur's six seats, compared to the BNP's three. Even
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI),the country's main Islamic party, won
two seats, including one in the Dinajpur-1 constituency, one
of the district's most heavily Hindu areas. AL candidates
conceded there had been disunity in their party at the time
but alleged the real reason for their party's failure was
widespread vote fraud and intimidation of AL supporters by
the BNP. According to one, the election officer in
Dinajpur-1 merely switched the data on the two candidates,
explaining JI's victory there. Non-political figures echoed
these allegations, indicating a widespread belief the BNP had
manipulated the last election. Many allegations focused on
BNP candidate and former Chief of Army Staff Mahbubur Rahman,
(who won the Sitabganj seat in 2001). Rahman's current AL
rival alleged the former officer had used his military
connections to prevent AL supporters from voting in 2001, a
charge Rahman vehemently denied. When asked about the Hindu
vote, Rahman told Pol-Econoff he enjoyed substantial support

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from Hindus, asserting he even took some flack from Muslims
for it. He also pointed out that Khaleda Zia had family ties
to the region, (Zia's sister, now deceased, won a Dinajpur
seat in 2001),adding to the BNP's favor.

Ershad: Rangpur's Favorite Son
--------------

6. (C) Former President H.M. Ershad, who heads the Jatiya
Party-Ershad (JP-E),hails from Rangpur and is a candidate in
its largest constituency. JP-E's District Secretary
expressed confidence the party would win throughout the
district. (NOTE: candidates in other Rangpur constituencies,
representing BNP and JI, told Pol-Econoff they had a good
chance of winning against their JP-E rivals. END NOTE) One
BNP candidate said educated people had no reason to vote for
JP-E, as Ershad was clearly interested only in his own
success over that of the party, citing as the evidence the
number of veteran JP-E figures Ershad had passed over for
candidacies in favor of wealthier novices. A JI candidate
cited his party's unmuddled view and its sense of honesty and
service as factors that would win voters over, even
non-Muslim ones. His JP-E rival, a nephew of Ershad, is
widely believed to be a drug addict. The JI candidate stated
his party did not have sectarian interests and he denied any
links to Jamaat-al-Mujahiddin Bangladesh (JMB),a militant
Islamic group. Local journalists however, asserted JI in
Rangpur was intimately linked to JMB, and a student leader at
nearby Carmichael College told us JI's student wing was
involved in widespread intimidation and occasional violence
on campus. Independent voices in Rangpur told Pol-Econoff
they expected JP-E to win most of Rangpur District's seats.
They warned, however, that the party would collapse as soon
as Ershad retired, as its popularity was based solely on his
persona.

Saidpur Biharis Ready to Vote
--------------

7. (U) Half way between Dinajpur and Rangpur, the town of
Saidpur has a sizeable population of Urdu-speaking Bihari
Muslims. They migrated from Bihar and other parts of eastern
India at the time of the partition of India in 1947, along
with hundreds of thousands of others now scattered around
Bangladesh. Loyal to Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation
War, Biharis suffered immense retribution from both the
liberation supporters and the Indian Army. Today, many
Biharis, including the chairman of Saidpur's leading trade
association, live normal lives. A group of them told us they
continued to suffer mild discrimination, but, in general, had
comfortably assimilated to Bangladeshi culture. They said
Biharis tend to vote BNP because of the AL's association with
the liberation war, and recent BNP support for Bihari
rehabilitation projects.


8. (SBU) The situation was very different, however, for the
hundreds of thousands of Biharis permanently driven from
their homes in the chaos of the war. After the war, the GOB
temporarily settled Baharis in refugee "camps", where they
have been languishing ever since. Their status as
Bangladeshi citizens was only recently resolved. For the
first time, this year they registered to vote. There are
twenty such camps in the Saidpur area, and we visited one
near the town's railway yard. Conditions were extremely
cramped, with almost no open space except for the narrow
alleys running among the barracks-like dwellings. After a
long and detailed recounting of their suffering in the war, a
group of men listed their current difficulties. Initially
they received some assistance from the International Red
Cross and later from the Bangladesh Red Crescent, but they
claimed to have received nothing for about the last ten
years. There were no employment options in the camp, so
inhabitants survived on whatever marginal opportunities
existed outside. It was only recently that schools began to
accept children from the camp. The camp-Biharis' biggest
demand was for a permanent place to settle and rehabilitation
services. They wanted to get out of the camp before passing
their way of life to another generation. They were happy to
have the chance to vote and told us they would likely vote
BNP.

Sirajganj: "Swing State" Loses a Seat
--------------

9. (C) On the way back to Dhaka we visited Shahazadpur, a
rural constituency in Sirajganj District. The district lost
one seat in the recent re-districting. The loss was caused
in part by the westward shift in the Jamuna River - a natural
process exacerbated by man-made erosion problems, forcing
displaced inhabitants to migrate westward. District-wide the
BNP did well in 2001, while the AL took a majority in 1996.
A local professor likened Sirajganj to a U.S. swing state.
Pol-Econoff spoke to both the AL and BNP candidates, held a

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discussion with local college lecturers and met with a group
of teachers, businessmen and party workers. Pocketbook
issues - inflation and unemployment, dominated their
concerns. A nearby state-run milk processing plant,
Bangladesh's largest, had recently laid off a third of its
workforce at the urging of the Caretaker Government. Like
everywhere in Bangladesh, voters were deeply concerned about
inflation. Many felt the vote would be close, but that the
AL had an edge, as the locals associated secularism with
communal harmony, thus favoring AL. They worried the BNP
would attempt to manipulate the election in their area.
Senior law enforcement authorities in Shahazadpur reportedly
have close links to the BNP and JI, and the AL candidate told
us several of his party workers had recently been arrested on
petty charges.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) Throughout the trip we noted distinct differences in
the way AL and BNP candidates presented themselves. All of
the AL candidates chose to meet in secluded settings with
just a few others present, and they generally stayed focused
on the questions posed, providing a thorough analysis of the
local situation and perspective. In contrast, all but one of
the BNP candidates held their meetings in front of large
groups of party supporters, sometimes with as many as forty
people squeezed into a small room. They frequently drifted
away from local issues, choosing instead to focus on the
national platform. To some degree, this reflects the stature
of Khaleda Zia within the party. Just as important, the BNP
appears to have decided to turn this election into a
referendum on the caretaker government period.
MORIARTY