BANGLADESH BEFORE THE ELECTIONS: ALL QUIET ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001286

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2018
TAGS: BG ECON KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH BEFORE THE ELECTIONS: ALL QUIET ON THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FRONTS

REF: A. DHAKA 01200

B. DHAKA 01243

DHAKA 00001286 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty; reason 1.4 (b)&(d)

Summary
=======


1. (C) Preparations for December 29 parliamentary elections
are just beginning to get underway in Barisal, Gazipur, and
the northern portions of the Chittagong division in
Bangladesh. Though formal campaigning has yet to begin,
journalists, NGOs, local political leaders and international
observers in these regions of central and southern Bangladesh
report few hitches thus far in the run up to national polls.
A few, however, expressed fear that there could be a
resurgence of anti-minority post-election violence seen in
parts of Bangladesh in 2001. Up to 80 million Bangladeshis
will go to the polls nationwide in the first parliamentary
elections since 2001.

Campaigning Yet to Start
========================


2. (SBU) During pre-election visits to Barisal, Gazipur, and
the Northern Chittagong districts of Comilla, Feni, and
Noakahli from December 3-5, the streets were buzzing with
life, but most political activity was taking place behind
closed doors. Observers conceded that even though electoral
laws permitted campaigning to start three weeks before the
December 29 polls, they did not expect serious campaigning to
begin before December 12, the day after the deadline for
candidate nominations. That said, party workers are meeting
informally to discuss preparations for the coming weeks.
Since December 3, candidates and party workers have closely
followed the &scrutiny8 process, whereby election officials
reviewed candidate nomination papers. The Election
Commission initially rejected a total of 557 nominations
countrywide, many because of corruption convictions, defaults
on loans and other disqualifying criteria. A total of 67
nominations have been successfully appealed, with the
Election Commission scheduled to make decisions on the
remaining 321 appeals in the coming days.


3. (SBU) During December 3-5 travel to Barisal, northern
Chittagong and Gazipur, our local contacts stressed it was
too early gauge the public mood since the Election Commission
was still finalizing candidate nominations. The leading
political parties were optimistic about their chances to
prevail in elections, though no one would offer a prediction
on their performance. Most independent observers did not
expect drastic shifts in the region's voting patterns for the
national parliamentary elections. (Note: Both Barisal and
the Northern Chittagong divisions are strongholds of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),while Gazipur
traditionally votes Awami League (AL). The Awami League won
the mayoral post in the August 4, 2008 municipal elections
however. End note.) Some races may be tight because of
redistricting, while others could be swept by former Members
of Parliament who have in the past claimed credit for
building roads or providing food during tough economic times.
Voters frequently spoke about the need for more roads in
rural areas and the high price of commodities. Those
candidates who have already tackled some of these issues
would appear to have a clear advantage over those new to the
district.


4. (SBU) Nearly all anticipated that &bread and butter8
issues like the price of goods, law and order, and corruption
would be foremost on the voters' minds, which tracks with
surveys conducted by the International Republican Institute
(IRI) and others. Notably, local contacts often asserted
that the anti-corruption efforts of the Caretaker Government
could influence voter decisions, as more attention had been
drawn to the nefarious activities of some candidates. At the
same time, however, these contacts argued that Caretaker
Government had largely been a failure, particularly with its
anti-corruption efforts, making the entire country eager for
elections.

Possible Setbacks for the Awami League?
=======================================


5. (SBU) In both Gazipur and Comilla, the Awami League (AL)
may have some hurdles to overcome. In two constituencies in

DHAKA 00001286 002.2 OF 002


these districts, AL President Sheikh Hasina replaced
reformist candidates with those loyal to her. While this
decision angered AL supporters in these districts, the
majority of AL supporters with whom we spoke in both Gazipur
and Comilla said they would still vote for the AL candidate,
whoever the person might be. At the same time, the vast
majority of people said they believed Sheikh Hasina and
Khaleda Zia, chairperson of the BNP, should remain at the
helm of their parties and hold public office.


6. (SBU) Another issue that may harm the AL was its former
alliance with the Jatiya Party (JP). The JP, led by former
President Ershad, is a small, but regionally prominent party
that has allied with the AL in the past. In the end, an
alliance could prove counterproductive for the AL, as it
simply causes confusion in some constituencies over which
candidate is running. While there are significantly fewer
Jatiya supporters than AL or BNP voters, it is still possible
for Jatiya votes to sway the results in some constituencies.

BNP Reformists Sidelined
========================


7. (C) The BNP has also nominated candidates perceived to be
loyal to Begum Zia, rejecting other candidates with strong
support in their constituencies. In Barisal division in
southern Bangladesh seven BNP incumbents lost nominations in
favor of new candidates, presumably because the incumbents
were part of a "reformist" wing of the BNP that attempted to
move the BNP away from Begum Zia after her arrest and
imprisonment on corruption charges in 2007. Nationwide,
nearly 38 potential BNP candidates are in the position of
being replaced by more loyal BNP'ers. Prominent reformer
Zahir Uddin Swappon, a BNP candidate in Barisal 1 expressed
disappointment he was not the party candidate but vowed to
run as an independent if the leadership continued with plans
to run another BNP candidate against him. Swappon said he
believed he could win as an independent due to the BNP
challenger's relative lack of experience. Though he wouldn't
rule out switching to archrival AL, Swappon said it was
unlikely to happen given his support base among BNP activists.

Communal Tensions Could Play a Role
===================================


8. (C) Though no problems have surfaced thus far, a few
observers said they feared a repeat of the anti-Hindu
violence and harassment experienced in several districts in
Barisal and throughout Bangladesh in areas with sizable Hindu
populations during the 2001 elections. Awami League
activists at the national and local levels have alleged that
this violence affected the turnout of minority voters and
ultimately resulted in a landslide victory for the BNP in

2001. A few thousand Hindus also allegedly fled to India
during this time.

Comment
=======


9. (SBU) Over the coming weeks Embassy teams will travel
throughout Bangladesh to assess preparations for the December
29 elections. This visit provides a snapshot of the
situation as parties are at the starting gates, before
nominations and alliances have been finalized. The campaign
begins in earnest on December 12.
PASI