SCENESCETTER FOR CODEL MCCAIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001222

NOFORN
SIPDIS

H FOR SENATORS MCCAIN, LIEBERMAN AND GRAHAM, FROM THE
AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PINS PREL PHUM BG
SUBJECT: SCENESCETTER FOR CODEL MCCAIN

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Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) USG activities in Bangladesh are based on three
pillars: democratization, development and denial of space to
terrorists. Your visit to Bangladesh comes in the twilight
of the Caretaker Government's (CTG) two-year term, amid
preparations for national Parliamentary elections in
December. The return to democracy remains highly fluid. The
two major parties -- the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)
and Awami League -- have been playing a dangerous game of
political chicken by insisting elections be held on terms
they dictate. Although the Election Commission recently
acceded to BNP demands and postponed elections until December
29, we expect the two parties to raise continuous demands
until the eve of the elections. The USG is urging the
Caretaker Government and both parties to act responsibly and
to compromise to ensure free, fair and credible elections by
year's end.


2. (SBU) You have a unique opportunity to help Bangladesh --
a strategically important, moderate, Muslim-majority nation
of 150 million people -- successfully return to democracy.
This country's utter lack of a bipartisan political ethos is
a root cause of Bangladesh's dysfunctional democratic system.
The call for national reconciliation in the U.S. in Senator
McCain's concession speech on November 4 struck a strong
chord among Bangladeshis yearning for more responsible
political leadership. The Embassy has widely distributed the
text of the speech, including placing it on the Embassy
website in Bangla and English. Many local commentators have
referred to its gracious tone glowingly, citing it as an
example for Bangladeshi politicians to emulate. By
emphasizing the same themes during his meetings with
political and government leaders, all three of you can help
create an atmosphere of bipartisanship that would serve
Bangladesh well.

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DEMOCRACY
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3. (U) The Caretaker Government (CTG) came to power in
January 2007, the day after the President declared a State of
Emergency to quell political violence in the run-up to
Parliamentary elections. With the strong support of the
military, the CTG canceled the elections and began cracking
down on endemic political corruption and violence. The
crackdown initially won broad public support, but frustration
with the Caretaker Government spilled onto the streets in
late August 2007, when a dispute at Dhaka University between
students and soldiers became a rallying point for
Bangladeshis disaffected by inflation, other economic woes,
and restrictions on political activity. The Government
stopped the protests by imposing a curfew. In April 2008, the
Chief Adviser (i.e. Prime Minister) laid out a road map for
returning to democracy, including the holding of
Parliamentary elections by the end of the year.


4. (U) The mechanics of holding elections are largely on
track. A reconstituted Election Commission compiled a new,
credible voter list. The list was put to the test in city and
municipal elections on August 4; turnout for the city polls
ranged from 75 percent to 93 percent, and election observers
reported only minor problems. In September 2008, the
Caretaker Government set December 18 as the date for the
delayed Parliamentary elections, but the BNP said it needed
more time to prepare after the release from jail of its
leader, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. (Note: The
Caretaker Government jailed both Zia and Awami League
President Sheikh Hasina on a multitude of corruption charges
in 2007. Zia was released on bail in September; Sheikh Hasina
was out of the country on medical parole from June until
November 6, when she made a triumphant return to Dhaka. End
note.) The BNP also demanded lifting of the State of
Emergency for the campaign, canceling Election Commission
powers to unilaterally disqualify candidates at any time
during the campaign, and delaying county-level elections.

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5. (C) The Election Commission on November 23 announced the
Parliamentary elections would be moved back to December 29.
Although the Caretaker Government did not fully meet the
BNP's three other demands, the party's initial response was
positive. The Awami League's leader, Sheikh Hasina, publicly
criticized the delay, but privately assured the Embassy that
her party would participate in the elections. The level of
distrust among the Awami League, the BNP, and the Caretaker
Government and its military supporters remains incredibly
high, virtually guaranteeing an endless drumbeat of
accusations and counter-accusations of political shennanigans
throughout the campaign.


6. (SBU) On a positive note, Hasina and Zia exchanged
greetings at an Armed Forces Day reception November 22. Media
reports said the two women had not spoken to each other
publicly in more than a decade, a reflection of their intense
personal dislike and the nation's poisonous political
atmosphere. The two parties rarely work together in
Parliament and often launch violent protests against each
other's policies and physically abuse and intimidate each
other's followers. Still, leaders of both parties are at
least discussing the possibility of ending the
"winner-take-all" democracy practiced in Bangladesh. One
proposal under consideration, for example, would ensure a
significant role for the opposition party in Parliamentary
committees.

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DEVELOPMENT
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7. (U) In the midst of the nation's political uncertainty,
Bangladeshis are coping with the aftermath of natural
disasters and spiraling inflation. Cyclone Sidr, with 160
mph winds at landfall, blasted through southwestern
Bangladesh in November 2007, killing thousands of people,
destroying the homes and livelihoods of millions, and leaving
2.3 billion USD of damage to infrastructure. As part of an
inter-agency effort, the U.S. military played a crucial role
in relief efforts by airlifting vitally needed water, food
and emergency supplies to Bangladeshis in remote areas.
However, the Government of Bangladesh and other international
donors have not sustained the strong levels of assistance
provided in Sidr's immediate aftermath, and millions of
victims remain in need of aid to rebuild their lives. The
additional $75 million for cyclone victims approved by the
U.S. Congress thus came at a most opportune time. On top of
natural disasters, inflation -- particularly of food prices
-- remains dangerously high for Bangladeshis, 86 percent of
whom subsist on less than $2 a day. Our assistance levels
remain high -- some 150 million USD last year. More
important, economic growth, fueled by ready-made garment
exports, has surpassed 6% annually over the past six years.

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DENIAL OF SPACE TO TERRORISTS
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8. (C) Bangladesh is a nation with porous borders -- both
land and maritime -- that make it an attractive transit point
and safe-haven for terrorists. Several USG studies this year
have underlined just how poorly the borders are policed, and
the Embassy is working on a multipronged approach with other
Western Embassies to help Bangladesh improve its border
security. The USG funds many programs in Bangladesh to
counter terrorism, including a wide range of training under
the Anti-Terrorist Assistance program coordinated by the
State Department. USAID and Public Affairs Section programs
also address root causes of extremism through outreach to
leaders of influence (including religious figures) and to
madrassas. The USG also will soon start training Bangladesh's
premier counterterrorism force, the Rapid Action Battalion
(RAB),whose history of alleged human rights violations
prevented earlier engagement. The number of people allegedly
killed in gun battles with RAB has decreased significantly
since mid-2007, and the initial training will focus on
further improving RAB's human rights record.


9. (S/NF) RAB arrested several hundred suspected members of

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Jamaatul Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB),an Islamic extremist
group, after a wave of bombings and suicide attacks in late
2005, and recovered bomb-making materials and weapons from
their hideouts. Those arrests, along with the execution in
March 2007 of six senior JMB leaders, represented a clear
blow to the organization. More recently, however, JMB
reportedly has increased recruitment efforts. To date, the
GOB has taken relatively little action against Bangladeshi
groups with ties to transnational, Pakistan-based terrorist
organizations. Concerns of possible violence by extremist
organizations in the run-up to elections remain. On November
16, authorities in Dhaka arrested a JMB activist in
possession of nearly 150 pounds of explosives.


10. (S/NF) To counter the transnational terrorist threat,
Embassy Dhaka has recommended USG support for the creation of
a Bangladesh Navy Special Operations unit, similar to US SEAL
and Special Boat units. The Government of Bangladesh intends
this unit to be a counterterrorism force that will address
critical gaps in Bangladesh's maritime security capability.
Transnational violent extremist organizations (such as
Interagency Intelligence Committee on Terrorism (IICT)
priority one Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT) and IICT priority three
Hizbul Mujhadin (HM)),transnational crime, drugs and human
trafficking are currently exploiting these gaps to facilitate
operations throughout South Asia. USG support for the
creation of this new force is critical to denying space to
terrorists. Additionally, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba is actively
developing a maritime capability in order to infiltrate
India; due to increases in land and air security within
India, Bangladesh is a viable maritime launching point for
these infiltration efforts.


11. (C) Senior officials from both the Awami League and BNP
have assured the Embassy fighting terrorism will be a top
priority of their parties. Your meetings with top political
leaders will provide an opportunity to hammer home the
importance of making good on those promises. Your meeting
with Chief of Army Staff Gen. Moeen Uddin Ahmed will provide
an opportunity to raise not only counterterrorism cooperation
but also the importance of further professionalization of the
Bangladesh military. Bangladesh is a top contributor to
international peacekeeping operations and continued
military-to-military cooperation between our two countries
will help ensure Bangledeshi troops perform well as
peacekeepers.

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YOUR VISIT
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12. (C) Thank you for making the effort to come to
Bangladesh. Your visit comes at a critical juncture in this
contry's young history. The visit will highlight the
importance the USG places on bilateral relations. Your
meetings with political and government leaders will provide
an opportunity to emphasize the importance of cooperation in
tackling key national issues from poverty alleviation to
crumbling infrastructure to denying space to terrorists.
Stressing the importance of bipartisanship in working for a
brighter future for Bangladesh will encourage a more stable
political environment. That, in turn, will make Bangladesh a
less attractive haven for international terrorists active in
the region and worldwide.


13. (U) I regret that I will be in Washington for a
long-scheduled conference during your visit. All members of
the Mission are excited about your trip and will do
everything possible to make it a sucess.

Moriarty