SHEIKH HASINA COMMITTED TO ELECTIONS ON DECEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001182

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/PB AND SCA/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS KDET PTER BG
SUBJECT: SHEIKH HASINA COMMITTED TO ELECTIONS ON DECEMBER
18, BUT WORRIED ABOUT EXTREMIST THREATS

REF: DHAKA 1158

DHAKA 00001182 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
=======


1. (C) Awami League President Sheikh Hasina insists
Bangladesh's parliamentary elections must take place on
December 18, with or without the BNP's participation. For
Hasina, violent extremist groups represent the greatest
threat to the restoration of democracy; she fears terrorist
attacks within the next month. The Awami League's slate of
candidates will include more young leaders, women, and
retired army officers. Energy sector and infrastructure
development top the list of Hasina's post-election
priorities. A month from elections, the prospects for an
Awami League victory look good, as do the opportunities for
closer U.S.-Bangladesh cooperation in promoting democracy,
development, and denial of space to terrorists.

Elections on December 18: With or Without BNP
=============================================


2. (C) Following up on the Ambassador's meeting a day
following Sheikh Hasina's return to Bangladesh (reftel),P/E
Counselor held a one hour one-on-one meeting with the Awami
League President November 16 at her residence in Dhanmondi.
Hasina,s Private Secretary Dr. Hasan Mahmud arranged the
meeting, which took place outside the glare of the television
cameras. A relaxed Hasina expressed her deep appreciation
for the USG's consistent support for elections and the
restoration of democracy. Hasina was adamant that elections
had to take place on December 18 as scheduled. She implored
the USG to continue to press for elections on the 18th.
Hasina said she looked forward to meeting with the visiting
National Democratic Institute Pre-Election Assessment Mission
which was visiting Bangladesh November 15 ) 20.


3. (C) As she told the Ambassador, Hasina repeated her
belief that it was in the BNP's own interest to participate
in elections. Hasina was confident that there would be a
large voter turnout even if the BNP boycotted. She
predicted that many potential BNP and Jamaat Islami
candidates would defy a boycott call and stand for election.
Hasina confided that some BNP candidates had even approached
her asking to join the Awami League. Hasina said she was
willing to meet with Begum Zia, but only after the latter had
committed to participate in the elections. Without such a
commitment she did not see any point to such a meeting,
particularly since many of her supporters would oppose such a
parlay.

New Look Awami League Prepares for Elections
============================================


4. (C) Hasina said she had focused on the acceptability of
candidates at the local level when screening lists of
potential nominees. Hasina complained that some prospective
candidates had been absent from their constituencies even
while their party workers had been suffering during five
years of BNP rule. She had decided to nominate those who had
local support and could win. Hasina said she also wanted to
bring more ex-army personnel into the party. Hasina
explained the party had almost finalized its nominations and
commented that before ending her day she needed to sign 300
letters to the prospective candidates.


5. (C) Hasina said she had told the Jatiya Party to be
prepared to contest elections independently if the BNP did
not run. Even if the JP ran on its own, Hasina would be
willing to offer the party seats in the next cabinet. Hasina
acknowledged that former President Ershad desperately wanted
to be President again. However, she could not promise this
since it would be up to the Parliament to elect the next
President. (Comment: Since the Parliament functions largely
as an extension of the Prime Minister's will, this answer is
a disingenuous. End Comment)

Bad Blood with BNP Remains
==========================


6. (C) Hasina dismissed the BNP's complaints that it had
suffered more during the State of Emergency than had the
Awami League. For example, Hasina said that Begum Zia had
received preferential treatment while in prison. Zia was
allowed a maid, while Hasina could not even see a doctor.

DHAKA 00001182 002.2 OF 002


Hasina noted that all parties had agreed to take part in the
1986 elections. At the last minute, Begum Zia pulled out of
those elections after giving an inflammatory speech calling
on the army to rise up. Zia then disappeared for three days
amid rumors she had been taken into custody. According to
Hasina, this was all an elaborate charade. Hasina believed
some in the military must have encouraged Zia to boycott the
1986 polls. Hasina thought history might be repeating
itself, with Zia trying to encourage a segment within the
army to intervene on her behalf. Hasina believed Army Chief
General Moeen Uddin Ahmed wanted elections, but she worried
about dissent within the ranks.


7. (C) Hasina also alleged that Zia had some "technical
problems" that were preventing her from registering as a
voter, now a prerequisite for running for office. First, Zia
would be required to prove her date of birth. This would
reveal that Zia was not born on August 15 (also the
anniversary of Hasina's father's assassination). Second, Zia
would need to produce proof of her educational
accomplishments. Hasina claimed Zia's official biography
exaggerated her educational level.

Concern about Violent Extremist Threats
=======================================


8. (C) Hasina said she had been informed of the Rapid Action
Battalion's arrest earlier that day of an alleged JMB member
caught in possession of 75kg of explosives (septel). Hasina
claimed that her security personnel had warned her that she
was on a militant "hit list" along with Khaleda Zia and
General Moeen Uddin Ahmed. Pointing to the ceiling, Hasina
said she had told her people that only God could protect her.
Hasina predicted that violent extremists would try to cause
problems in the run up to the elections, including by
launching attacks within India that would be blamed on
Bangladesh. Hasina said she had told her son Sajeeb not to
return to Bangladesh during the election campaign because of
threats against his safety. Hasina emphasized her desire to
work with the U.S. to fight terrorism.


9. (C) Hasina complained about the Directorate General of
Forces Intelligence's role in politics, noting that this had
not been the case during her government. Hasina alleged that
during the BNP administration the security services had
turned a blind eye to the activities of the militant groups.
Finally, they had to react after the situation had gotten out
of control. Hasina had plans to professionalize the police,
improve their pay, and separate the investigation and patrol
functions. She wanted the intelligence services to go back
to focusing on external and transnational threats. She
repeated her concerns about former DGFI Counter Terrorism
Director Amin's role in spawning the Islamic Democratic Party
as an offshoot of Foreign Terrorist Organization HUJI-B.

Energy and Infrastructure Priorities
====================================


10. (C) Hasina said she understood the next government would
face high expectations and would need to immediately take
steps to address urgent economic and social problems. She
highlighted the need to develop energy resources and
infrastructure, including ports, river transportation, and
rail development. Hasina also argued in favor of greater
integration with India and Nepal, including through energy
sharing and transit links. She wanted to make all education
free and was looking at improving food security to help
address the needs of the most vulnerable. Hasina said that
AL teams were working on all these issues.

Comment
=======


11. (C) During the meeting, Hasina noted that this might be
her last election. While she may want to promote new leaders
in order to begin building a legacy, she has also been
rewarding loyalty in the selection of candidates. Hasina's
concerns about her personal security and the broader threat
of terrorist attack are understandable--and may be justified.
She remains vulnerable despite the protection provided by
the Special Security Force. Our interactions with Hasina
since her release from prison in June have been uniformly
positive and appear to reflect her desire to forge strong
relations with the U.S. prior to her expected return to
power. Thus far, Hasina has been saying all the right
things.
Moriarty