Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08DHAKA1175
2008-11-16 01:00:00
SECRET
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:  

A MONTH FROM ELECTIONS, BANGLADESH'S POLITICAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KDEM BG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHKA #1175/01 3210100
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FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7705
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 8717
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 2449
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 9959
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1854
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0937
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1562
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001175 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM BG
SUBJECT: A MONTH FROM ELECTIONS, BANGLADESH'S POLITICAL
FORECAST IS EXTREMELY CLOUDY

REF: A. DHAKA 1173

B. DHAKA 1158

C. DHAKA 1155

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

------
SUMMARY
-------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001175

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM BG
SUBJECT: A MONTH FROM ELECTIONS, BANGLADESH'S POLITICAL
FORECAST IS EXTREMELY CLOUDY

REF: A. DHAKA 1173

B. DHAKA 1158

C. DHAKA 1155

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) Although Parliamentary elections are fast approaching,
many Bangladeshis remain deeply uncertain about prospects for
a return to democracy. The most likely scenario remains
elections on or about the set date of December 18, but the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has yet to say whether it
will participate. This cable considers a number of possible
scenarios. Bangladeshi politicians of all stripes acknowledge
the United States can play an important role in continuing to
promote free, fair, credible and timely elections. Two
upcoming visits by senior USG officials will provide an
excellent opportunity to encourage responsible political
behavior in the critical weeks ahead. The outcome is vital to
U.S. Government interests because a politically stable
Bangladesh -- a moderate, Muslim-majority country in a dicey
part of the world -- is critical to the Global War on Terror.

-------------- ---
DECEMBER ELECTIONS STILL MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...
-------------- ---


2. (C) Parliamentary elections in December remain the most
likely political scenario for Bangladesh. The two top
Caretaker Government advisers negotiating the terms of the
election with political parties, Communications Adviser Maj.
Gen. (retired) Ghulam Quader and Education Adviser Hosasin
Zillur Rahman, told Ambassador Moriarty on November 12 the
Caretakers remained committed to holding elections December
18 (Reftel A). Media reports on November 13 and Embassy
sources, however, indicate the Government might be willing to
postpone the elections by a week to entice the BNP to
participate.


3. (C) The big question is whether the BNP will participate.
The party, under former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has sent
mixed signals on its bottom-line terms. Its top leaders have
offered a bewildering and often contradictory list of
demands. Perhaps the most authoritative voice, Zia adviser
Mahmudur Rahman, told PolEcon Counselor that the party's

three main demands were completely lifting the State of
Emergency in effect since January 2007; curbing the Election
Commission's power to unilaterally disqualify candidates; and
delaying local elections now scheduled for December 28 by a
month. Importantly, he said the Emergency could be lifted
after nomination papers were filed, effectively killing the
possible candidacy of BNP leaders convicted of corruption.
Rahman appeared to leave room for compromise. November 13
media reports of a possible summit between Zia and her
longtime nemesis, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina,
suggested the door was at least slightly ajar for a
last-minute deal.


4. (C) Two senior BNP advisers have privately told Embassy
PolOffs the elections could be postponed to February 2009 to
give the party adequate time to prepare. Such a lengthy delay
seems unlikely for several reasons. The BNP's main rival, the
Awami League, is confident of victory in December
Parliamentary elections. Its leaders have said repeatedly the
vote must be held December 18 as planned. Meanwhile, Advisers
Quader and Zillur said they and their colleagues in the
Caretaker Government were uninterested in serving beyond the
end of the year. Finally, any delay into the new year would
trigger a required update of the national voter's list that
would push back any elections until at least mid-March.

--------------
...BUT WHAT HAPPENS IF THE BNP BOYCOTTS?
--------------


5. (C) Quader told the Ambassador he believed the BNP would
not take part in December 18 elections because it simply was
not ready. Indeed, the party must make a decision within days
if it is to meet the November 20 deadline for submitting
candidate nominations. Zia advisers who support a boycott
point to history for support. They note that a last-minute
BNP boycott of Parliamentary elections organized by former

DHAKA 00001175 002 OF 002


military dictator Ershad in 1986 burnished the party's image
and led to its success in elections two years later.
Similarly, the Awami League boycotted the Parliamentary vote
in February 1996 yet prevailed in elections four months
later. The lesson from recent Bangladesh history is that
boycotts work.


6. (C) A boycott this year, however, could well lead to a
major reshaping of the political landscape that would leave
the BNP substantially weakened. Should Zia call for a
boycott, party reformers and the BNP's most important ally,
the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, would have to quickly decide
whether to defy her and contest the election anyway. Scores
of former BNP members of Parliament are in the reformist camp
and could decide to campaign as independents or with smaller
reform-minded parties, including the Liberal Democratic Party
and the Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh Party, each led by former
BNP members. Jamaat would be uncomfortable campaigning
outside its alliance with the BNP, but some Jamaat leaders
have said their party might contest the election anyway to
ensure it remained engaged in the democratic process. Jamaat
would be much less competitive running on its own, but Quader
suggested the Awami League could help the Islamists win at
least a few seats to ensure their presence in Parliament.


7. (S/NF) Should the BNP boycott, the big question would be
whether its activists head into the streets to disrupt the
election. BNP leaders have urged supporters to prepare for
elections and "movement," a word loaded with the possibility
of violent protest. Education Adviser Zillur told the
Embassy's locally engaged political specialist that a boycott
would pose a security risk. Bangladesh politics has a history
of electoral violence; bloody labor strikes, called hartals,
were largely responsible for the cancellation of elections in
January 2007 and imposition of the State of Emergency. In his
discussion with our political specialist, Zillur hinted that
another outpouring of violence could trigger a military coup.
At his subsequent meeting with the Ambassador, however, he
and Quader said all government and political leaders were
committed to elections. Chief of Army Staff General Moeen
Uddin Ahmed in meetings with USG officials has repeatedly
voiced strong support for the elections. Still, many
Bangladeshis suspect the Directorate General of Forces
Intelligence (DGFI) could seek to foil the elections. They
are particularly wary of its former head of
counterintelligence, Gen. A.T.M Amin, who has tirelessly
tried to manipulate politics to ensure the next Parliament
supported Caretaker Government political reforms and did not
seek revenge against those in power during the State of
Emergency.

-------------- --------------
COMMENT: PUTTING ON THE FULL-COURT PRESS FOR DEMOCRACY
-------------- --------------


8. (C) With only weeks to go before Parliamentary elections,
the U.S. Government needs to conduct a full-court press in
support for a free, fair and credible vote. We will continue
to meet with a broad range of major players, particularly
leaders of the political parties, to urge them to participate
in the elections and refrain from violece. The November 22-24
visit of Principal Deputy Secretary Donald Camp of the State
Department's South and Central Asia Bureau is perfectly timed
to reinforce the Embassy message at the highest levels of
government and with the political parties. During his
November 19-21 visit, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
James Clad will be able to impress upon military leaders the
need to support a smooth and timely return to democracy. The
coming 10 days may not shake the world, but they will go a
long way in determining the next chapter in Bangladesh's
history.

Moriarty