TOP GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATORS REITERATE NO CHANGE IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001173

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BG
SUBJECT: TOP GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATORS REITERATE NO CHANGE IN
PARLIAMAENTARY ELECTION DATE

REF: A. DHAKA 1155

B. DHAKA 1158

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Two leading Caretaker Government officials negotiating
the terms of Parliamentary elections told the Ambassador on
November 12 they would neither delay the vote scheduled for
December 18 nor allow convicted politicians to run. The
reiteration of Government position by Communications Adviser
Maj. Gen. (retired) Ghulam Quader and Education Adviser
Hossain Zillur Rahman came amid great uncertainty over
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) demands for participating
in the election. Both men expressed exasperation over mixed
signals from the BNP over its bottom-line; Quader said he
thought the party would likely boycott the vote because it
simply was not ready. At the Ambassador's urging, the
Advisers said they would seek an immediate meeting with BNP
Chairperson Khaleda Zia to clearly state the Government
position and urge her to join the election. With the November
20 deadline for filing candidate nomination papers fast
approaching, the BNP has no more than a few days to reach a
decision.

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GOVERNMENT STANDS FIRM ON ELECTION DATE
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2. (C) Advisers Quader and Zillur (Note: Advisers are akin
to Cabinet ministers. End note.) told Ambassador Moriarty the
Caretaker Government was determined to hold Parliamentary
elections on December 18 as planned. Although the BNP did not
include a delay in the vote among its formal demands for
participating in the election, many party leaders and proxies
have said a fair poll is impossible withough a postponement.
They have argued the party is a victim of Caretaker
Government and Election Commission bias; therefore, the vote
must be delayed until the BNP has a "level playing field" to
compete with the Awami League, the other major party (the
Awami League strongly supports elections). Among the BNP's
formal demands is immediately lifting the State of Emergency
rule that forbids convicts -- including several score leading
BNP politicians found guilty of corruption -- from running
for Parliament. The two advisers, however, said that ban will
remain or else the Caretaker Government's anti-corruption
campaign would lose all credibility.

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WHAT DOES THE BNP WANT?
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3. (S/NF) Zillur expressed frustration over Khaleda Zia's
failure to indicate her bottom-line demands. He gave four
possible explanations: She was determined to be a spoiler and
boycott the elections; she was playing a game of brinkmanship
to wring maximum concessions from the government; she was in
the midst of finalizing her negotiating position; or, she was
uncertain about what to do. Many BNP leaders contacted by
Embassy officers in recent days suggested indecisiveness was
the reason behind the lack of clarity of what the party
really wanted. The two advisers acknowledged they had not met
with Zia in recent days, leaving negotiations to the
military's Directorate General Forces Intelligence (DGFI). At
the Ambassador's urging, they agreed to seek an immediate
meeting with Zia to clearly state the Government's position
and urge her to participate in the elections. (Note: The
Ambassador said it was particularly unwise to leave political
negotiations in the hands of Gen. ATM Amin, the former
director of DGFI's Counterterrorism Bureau. The Ambassador
noted that Awami League President Sheikh Hasina had expressed
to him personally her distruct of Gen. Amin and his motives.
End note.)


4. (C) Recent conversations with BNP leaders suggest there
may be flexibility in at least a few party demands. Although
some BNP insiders have suggested delaying the elections until
February, the party has not raised this demand publicly. At
least unofficially, some preparations are underway to
participate in December 18 elections should Zia give a final
go-ahead. (Note: The advisers may be a bit flexible, too. An
Embassy source close to the Awami League told us that later
in the day Zillur asked him to get the party's reaction to a

DHAKA 00001173 002 OF 002


proposal that included delaying the elections until December

28. End note.) The BNP also may be flexible in its demand
that convicted party leaders receive permission to run for
Parliament. Party Joint Secretary General Nazrul Islam Khan
told PolOff on 11/10 that Zia asked him to come up with a
list of alternative candidates for constituencies formerly
represented by BNP politicians in jail on corruption
convictions. Zia Adviser Hannan Shah ran through some
scenarios under which the party might contest the election
even if the convicts remained barred from running. Still,
several close advisers to Zia insisted the ban on convict
candidates was designed to disadvantage the BNP and continued
to demand it be lifted.

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WHAT IF THE BNP BOYCOTTS?
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5. (C) Quader told the Ambassador he believed the BNP
ultimately would boycott the election because it simply was
not ready. Under that scenario, Quader opined, many BNP
reformists would break with Zia and run for Parliament allied
with other smaller parties, thereby sundering the BNP and
greatly diminishing her political clout. The advisers
acknowledged they did not know whether Zia loyalists would
take to the streets to violently disrupt the campaign should
the party boycott. The Ambassador noted that public opinion
polling suggested most Bangladeshis would ignore a
major-party boycott and vote.


6. (C) A boycott also would place the BNP alliance partner
Jamaat-e-Islami in a difficult position, Quader continued.
The Islamist party desperately wanted to remain part of the
democratic process and had made clear it wanted the BNP's
four-party alliance to contest the election. If the BNP
boycotted, the Awami League should do what it can to keep
Jamaat engaged in the democratic process, Quader said. One
option for the Awami League would be to refrain from
challenging strong Jamaat candidates to ensure Jamaat won at
least a few seats in Parliament.

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COMMENT: TIME TO DECIDE
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7. (C) The advisers stressed the Caretaker Government and its
military supporters would not back down from holding
elections December 18. That means the BNP must decide within
a matter of a few days whether to participate. Embassy
officers have met with virtually all leading BNP officials
this week to urge participation, and the Ambassador is
seeking a meeting with Zia to stress the case against a
boycott. Whatever the BNP decision, the Embassy will continue
to support the election timetable and to insist the
Government do everything it can to ensure a free, fair and
credible vote.
Moriarty